The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts 1

Outline 2 The CEDSS model Stakeholder Advisory Group input Demonstration of the CEDSS model Data sources, refining the model Future scenarios for CEDSS

The CEDSS Model 3 Community Energy Demand Social Simulator Households located in a street-network, making decisions about buying energy-using and energy-saving appliances and equipment. Households’ energy use, and expenditure on energy and energy-related equipment, is tracked over time. Data for runs of the model covering the period is drawn from a range of publicly-available sources, and from the first (2010) GILDED survey. Runs covering the period are in preparation.

Stakeholder Advisory Group Input 4 Demo of prototype model followed by Knowledge Elicitation Exercise: Post-it session Discussion of post-its Opportunity to add new post-its Index card sorting exercise 1: Categories that made sense to participants Index card sorting exercise 2: Ontological categories predefined by us  Entities  Processes  Relationships  Attributes “Using the picture as a guide, identify anything associated with household energy use or household energy activities” April 2010 SAG meeting

Index Card Sorting 1 5

Index Card Sorting 2 6

Ontology from the index cards 7

Ontology from another meeting in Budapest 8

Demonstration of the CEDSS model 9

Refining the CEDSS Model 10 Input data GILDED survey ONS statistics DECC statistics SG statistics Argos catalogues Etc. Calibration data Validation data CEDSS Free parameters Results Comparison

CEDSS Future Scenarios Input data Peer-reviewed papers (appliance Prices, efficiency) CEDSS Free parameters Results Policy Implications OECD/IEA Projections (energy savings) EC scenarios (fuel prices) GILDED survey (starting point)