Bruce C. Vladeck, Ph.D. Physicians for a National Health Program Boston, MA November 2, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Bruce C. Vladeck, Ph.D. Physicians for a National Health Program Boston, MA November 2, 2013

NOTE: FY is fiscal year. 1 Amount for Medicare excludes offsetting premium receipts (premiums paid by beneficiaries, amount paid to providers and later recovered, and state contribution (clawback) payments to Medicare Part D). 2 Other category includes other mandatory outlays, offsetting receipts, and negative outlays for Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Medicare Baseline, May Total Federal Spending, FY2012 = $3.5 Trillion Federal Spending on Medicare, FY2012 = $551 Billion

SOURCE: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, January 2011 (for data) and May 2013 (for 2020 data). Medicare Spending as a Share of Federal Budget Outlays Medicare Spending as a Share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Total Federal Outlays (trillions) $1.3$1.8$3.5$5.0 Gross Domestic Product (trillions) $5.7$9.8$14.5$22.9

SOURCE: 2013 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Historical Projected In millions:

SOURCE: 2013 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Medicare Enrollment (in millions) Average Annual Growth in Enrollment

NOTES: ‘Insolvency’ refers to the depletion of the trust fund. No insolvency projections were made for and For all other years not displayed, the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was projected to remain solvent for 17 or fewer years. SOURCE: Intermediate projections from Annual Reports of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Year of Trustees’ Report Projected Number of Years to Insolvency and Projected Year of Insolvency:

NOTES: Differences between 1997 and 2006 are statistically significant for all displayed measures. Annual amounts for the components of total health care spending do not sum to total amounts because values shown are median, not mean, values. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey Cost and Use files, Total health care out-of- pocket Premium out-of-pocket Nonpremium out-of-pocket

NOTE: LTSS are long-term services and supports and include home health spending. Premiums include Medicare Part A, B, C, and D and private health insurance premiums. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2009 Cost and Use file. WomenMen Services $4,844 $4,230

NOTE: Analysis of Medicare beneficiaries 65 and older. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2009 Cost and Use file. WomenMen Income level: 43% 27%

25% had incomes below $14,000 50% had incomes below $22,500 5% had incomes above $88,900 NOTE: Total household income for couples is split equally between husbands and wives to estimate income for married beneficiaries. SOURCE: Urban Institute analysis of DYNASIM for the Kaiser Family Foundation.

$532.6 billion$241.7 billion$229.1 billion$61.7 billion NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Amounts are fiscal year totals. SOURCE: 2013 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds.