Supply and Demand is Not Sustainable Dr. Susan Krumdieck Department of Mechanical Engineering Dr. Andre Dantas Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tony Burton Energy Systems Engineer Cape Foulwind

What is this about?

Overview: Past Kaikuora The Role of Engineering Supply and Demand Continuous Growth Increasing Demand Present Future Sustainable Growth? Kyoto? Switch to Renewables? Service and Availability Continuity Energy Architecture

Manapouri Demand Supply (without tax) Supply (with tax) COSTCOST $ PRODUCTION QUANTITY S’ SP’ P Q Q’ SUPPLYDEMANDPrice Past Economics

Past Engineering Development Innovation Advancement Mt. Cook

We also know from the past: The Supply and Demand Model most closely represents the “bloom and collapse” cycle of bacteria and other single-cell biota

Problems of Unlimited Growth: Food Forests Fisheries Water War Waste Peak Oil Global Climate Change Population Mass Extinction Whanganui River

Modern Economics Supply and Demand Sustainable Growth Triple Bottom Line Accounting Green Image Marketing Incentives / Carbon Tax Price Signals for Switch to Alternatives Sustainable Development

Modern Energy Engineering Energy is no longer “too cheap to meter” The Environment is no longer “a free dumping ground” Energy Resources Supply Cost DemandEnd Use Environment Costs Health Costs Catlins Motion Sensors for Lights Build Bike Paths Energy Auditing Load Management Ripple Control Deregulation Market Pricing Fund Research on Fuel Cells Upgrade Power Networks Subsidies for Wind Farms Research into BioFuels

Sustainable Economy Goals Environmental Impacts Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Green Products Sustainable Development Appropriate Technology Monowai

Stone Jet Substitute Renewable Energy and Green Products into the fossil fuel system, and you end up with… Nelson

Moeraki

Farewell Spit

Lake Matheson What will happen is what has always happened

Future: Engineering Change Correctly Pose the Problem Theory Method Analysis Engineering Franz Joseph

Problem Definition Economics: Sustained Growth Ecology: Sustainable Environment Engineering: What ever you want Fox Glacier

Engineering Problem Definition: Stable energy and environmental resource architecture which provides well-being of civilization within the constraints of continuous resource availability Able Tasman

Theory Regional System Model Reference Input Controls Physical Plant Actuators Feedback Catlins

Systems Model West Coast

Strategic Analysis Methodology 1.Define the system and performance metrics 2.Define objectives for well-being 3.Build socio-economic and cultural history 4.Develop a regional system model 5.Develop Performance-Objective design for reference energy architecture 6.Evaluate critical change factors 7.Develop scenarios for evolution Cape Foulwind

Method “Achieve function and quality goals within the constraints of resource availability” Westport

Service and Availability Economy Consumers Producers & Suppliers $ Free Market Relationship Desired Services Sustainable Availability Sustainability Modelling Information Flows Natural Resources Environment Manapouri Available Services

West Coast Analysis and Modelling Real-Time Simulations Virtual Reality Experiential Interface Animation

Projects and New Technologies Moeraki Modelling Environment Comparator computational systems for real-time analysis and communication to the community in a generic and relevant way Communication of sustainable built system possibilities to all sectors of society Built Environment Communications systems for access to availability information Feedback processing of environmental impact data, and real-time mitigation systems

Stone Jets to supply demand Or we could keep trying to make Stone Jets to supply demand H 2 Express Biofuel Beauty Wind and Solar Salvation Nuclear Nonsense Fusion Foolishness H 2 Express

Thanks for your attention