The impact of climate change on policy and migration of people Sandor Szalai Szent Istvan University

History The complex societies of Egypt and Mesopotamia, for example, emerged as people migrated away from desiccating rangelands and into riverine areas. During the 4th century, growing aridity and frigid temperatures from a prolonged cold snap caused the Hun and German tribes moved to west. The 8th century Muslim expansion into the Mediterranean and southern Europe was, to some extent, driven by drought in the Middle East. (Dupont, Pearman, 2006)

Effects of migration (IOM, 2008) Forced migration hinders development in at least four ways; – by increasing pressure on urban infrastructure and services, – by undermining economic growth, – by increasing the risk of conflict and – by leading to worse health, educational and social indicators among migrants themselves.

Terminology Climate refugees (definition problems) Climate migrants Climate evacuee (temporal within the national borders) “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons, who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or chose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad”.

The problem is wider Economic “pull” and environmental “push” Katrina hurricane was more than just a meteorological event: the damage it caused was a product of poor disaster planning, consistent underinvestment in the city’s protective levees as well the systematic destruction of the wetlands in the Mississippi delta that might have lessened the force of the storm. Labelling it a “climate change event” over-simplifies both its causes and its effects.

Climate drivers (McLeman) Climate processes are slowonset changes such as sea-level rise, salinization of agricultural land, desertification, growing water scarcity and food insecurity. Climate events, on the other hand, are sudden and dramatic hazards such as monsoon floods, glacial lake outburst floods, storms, hurricanes and typhoons.

Yield changes 2002/2003

The ratio of the stable species (Bakkenes, M. et al. 2004)

Millennium Development Goals Gender issue (men migration) Poverty and Hunger HIV/AIDS Environmental sustainability Global partnership Maternal and child health

Migration Within the country (resettlements, ongoing) International

By 2050 one in every 45 people in the world will have been displaced by climate change This prediction is still very tentative, estimates range between 25 million and 1 billion people by (Myers, 2005) Past environmental migratory movements suggest that being able to migrate away from severe climatic conditions, requires would-be migrants to have some “social and financial capital” such as existing support networks in the destination area and the funds to be able to move

Managing risks - buying down risks

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