1 SPARC Themes Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Tom Peter (ETH Zurich) and Ted Shepherd (Univ. of Toronto), co-Chairs Norm McFarlane, SPARC IPO Director

2 Current SPARC Structure

3 SPARC vehicles include –SPARC Newsletter (279 citations in the WoS) –SPARC Reports (174 citations in the WoS) –Refereed review papers –Papers from SPARC activities (e.g. CCMVal) –Interdisciplinary workshops to cross boundaries –Working groups, e.g. data assimilation –General Assemblies (normally every 4 years) Last one was in Bologna in 2008, next will be in 2014 The WCRP Open Science Meeting will replace the SPARC GA for the intervening ( ) period

4 The largest and highest-profile SPARC activity at the present time Just completed a comprehensive peer-reviewed SPARC Report, involving 18 CCM groups and over a hundred scientists as authors and reviewers –Process-oriented validation of models –Detailed evaluation of radiative and chemical schemes –Statistical evaluation of ozone projections –Effect of stratosphere on troposphere Is providing critical input into the 2010 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity (CCMVal)

5 Quantitative performance metrics were applied to all diagnosics In the end we backed off from using them to weight model projections

6 Statistical uncertainties in projections were quantified and reduced through better statistical methods, more models, and longer simulations NH midlatitude total ozone

7 Comparison with measurements is building the case for better measurements, leading to specific recommendations directed at GCOS and CEOS Seasonal cycle of water vapour Black is multi-model mean, gray shading MIPAS, diamonds are ACE-FTS

8 Very much motivated by the CCMVal Report First step is to collect all available chemical data sets and compare their seasonal cycles, etc., working closely with the measurement scientists –Will provide a “user’s guide” to the datasets (as with SPARC Report on Middle Atmosphere Climatologies) Need to capture existing knowledge, recognizing that the “golden age” of stratospheric composition measurements is coming to an end –Will be an invaluable reference for model validation –Will also stimulate reprocessing efforts –Will also identify measurement gaps We are anticipating co-sponsorship with CEOS ACC SPARC Data Initiative

9 Veronika Eyring (lead for CCMVal, and SPARC SSG member) sits on WGCM –Together with IGAC/AC&C, SPARC through CCMVal provided a stratosphere-troposphere ozone forcing database for CMIP5 Adam Scaife (nominated for SPARC SSG) sits on WGSIP –Is coordinating SPARC involvement in CHFP and CMIP5 C20C We have nominated Saroja Polavarapu (lead for SPARC Data Assimilation Working Group) to sit on WGNE Interactions with WCRP modelling groups

10 Bringing together measurement scientists, process modellers, climate modellers, and theorists The challenge is that each measurement technique sees a different piece of the gravity-wave spectrum (also the process is highly intermittent) –Initial planning workshop in March 2008 –Review paper (M.J. Alexander et al., Q.J.R.M.S. in press) –Team workshop at International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Bern in February 2010, to produce a self-consistent data set for model validation –Proposed Chapman Conference in February 2011 SPARC Gravity-wave Initiative

11 Bergen, Norway, October 2010 –Initiated by SPARC, discussed at JSC meetings, refined through a community consultation process There seems to be a consensus that there is untapped potential for predictability in polar regions Need to look at couplings between different components of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land), as well as couplings with lower latitudes Focus will be process-oriented, in a workshop setting with around 80 participants, but also forward-looking Outcome will be a review paper, as well as ideas for programmatic next steps for the WCRP WCRP Workshop on Polar Predictability on Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Timescales

12 –Ted Shepherd (U. Toronto, Chair) –Julie Arblaster (BMRC/NCAR) –Cecilia Bitz (U. Washington) –Thierry Fichefet (Catholic U. Louvain) –Tore Furevik (Geophys. Inst., Bergen) –John Walsh (IARC, U. Alaska) –Vladimir Kattsov (Main Geophys. Obs, St. Petersburg) –John Marshall (M.I.T.) –Vladimir Ryabinin (WCRP) –Ellie Farahani (SPARC IPO) The program is currently under development –Suggestions for participants are welcomed by the SOC Scientific Organizing Committee

13 Ozone Profiles Need to provide a near global, long-term data set Ongoing, authenticated measurements of ozone profiles required Consistent altitude ranges, sampling times/periods, resolution Demise of SAGE II: lost ability to obtain such a data Problem needs to be addressed if the recovery of ozone is to be tracked Ground-based networks have improved (e.g. SHADOZ) but not helpful in the lower stratosphere Profiles of ozone trends

14 Trends before and after 2000 SPARC WaVAs-2 Water Vapour Assessment 2 New SPARC Report chairs: Cornelius Schiller, Tom Peter, Karen Rosenlof 1.Introduction 2.Data Quality 3.Supersaturation 4.UTS climatology and trends 5.Synthesis Sep '08Kick-off, Bologna Oct '08Informal mtg, Hawaii Mar '09Author mtg, Toronto Sept '09Planning mtg, Corsica NowOpen SPARC data base NowChapter writing Mid '10Chapter meetings End '10Review Mid '11Report completed

15 AquaVIT2007: Core Instrument Accuracy 15 AquaVIT whitepaper, published: AquaVIT hygrometer intercomparison in AIDA cloud chamber (blind expts) SPARC WaVAs-2

16 Objectives: Understand role of emissions on atmospheric composition Relate concentrations to radiative forcings/climate change Improve process understanding and representation Martyn Chipperfield WCRP-SPARC Phil Rasch & Sarah Doherty IGBP-IGAC WCRP-SPARC / IGBP-IGAC Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Initiative

17  AC&C Overall Organization: Phil Rasch & Sarah Doherty (IGAC) Martyn Chipperfield (SPARC) Veronika Eyring (CCMVal contact, SPARC)  Modeling Activities:  20 year Hindcast Peter Hess, Jennifer Logan, Oliver Wild  What controls the vertical distribution of species? Step 1: Focus on 5km->tropopause Céline Mari, Michaela Hegglin, Mary Barth  new leads  Future Scenarios: Sensitivities & Uncertainties Drew Shindell, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz  “Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in Climate”:  Tami Bond, Piers Forster, David Fahey AC&C Initiative: Activities for Phase I

18 AC&C

19 Plus an addition in 2009: “Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in Climate” ~ Background: many studies on BC optical properties, radiative forcing, interactions with clouds, with disparate results summary of current state of knowledge would benefit science community (esp. going into AR5) a “call” from the NGO/policy realm for a scientific summary statement on BC and climate, in the context of making decisions around near-term mitigation of global warming ~ New “gold standard”: associated change in source with climate response, i.e. accounting for co-emitted species. AC&C

20 March 2006 Pune, India IGBP/ WCRP SC/SSG January 2007 First Workshop First assembly of model center participants, agreement on issues Jan 2008 Teleconference Real work begins, Teleconference with the leads of the 4 activities June 2008 Workshop Joint with HTAP in Washington DC August 2006 Planning Workshop Select OC to Target issues & Topic, Identify participants 2007 Initiate cooperation with HTAP AC&C Timeline “Bounding BC” lead author mtgs. Sept, Jan Sept ’09, Jan ’10 “Bounding BC” lead author mtgs. “Bounding BC” lead author mtg. May IPCC AR5 early 2009 Harmonized emissions scenarios (incl. short- lived species) June 2009 EOS article on AC&C published June 2009 AC&C at CCMVal mtg. Model runs finishedfor “Hindcasts” & “Future Scenarios” Oct 2009 Joint SPARC/IGAC SSG: AC&C- CCMVal coordination

21 Aerosols /Geoengineering SPARC Report N°4: SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (2006) SPARC Volcano Workshop Zurich 6-10 Juny 2009 Pinatubo, Jan 1992 Geo- engineering

22 Geoengineering Previous assumption much too optimistic

23 The SPARC Office Beyond 2011 Status quo: Largest portion of the cash support: Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) Matched by cash/in-kind support: Canadian Space Agency, Environment Canada, and the University of Toronto CFCAS funding for the SPARC IPO committed through Dec 2011 No prospective Canadian funding sources to replace the CFCAS In the absence of this support it will not be possible to maintain the SPARC IPO in its current location The way forward: Consider alternative locations/non-Canadian funding sources

24 SPARC and IGAC: much in common, complementary activities SPARC and IGAC: also have distinct foci Shared responsibility for AC&C cross-cutting initiative Enhance role of CCMVal in the future: a stronger connection to tropospheric chemistry climate models While continuing to focus on climate issues, complement the strong IGAC focus on air quality WCRP/SPARC, IGBP/IGAC perspectives and programmatic issues Concluding discussion in the joint day of the SPARC/IGAC SSG/SSC

25 The way ahead SPARC’s metamorphosis: The “stratosphere/troposphere topic” SSG Mtg 2009 Kyoto:joint day with IGAC SSG Mtg 2010 Pune:discuss/plan upcoming extension into the troposphere SSG Mtg 2011 Denver?joint day of all 4 core projects? Tropospheric Chemistry: Interface with IGAC/IGBP is well defined, AC&C / CCMVal are going strong Tropospheric Dynamics: enhance trop/strat exchange, trop/strat dynamical coupling