By: Alec Horton

Political Socialization  “The process through which an individual acquires his or her political orientations.”  Ethnicity  Religion  The Impact of Events  School and Peers  The Mass Media  The Family

Family  Family influences political socialization through communication and receptivity.  Children learn their parents’ political values as they spend time with their parents despite how vague thy may be.  Parental influences effect children the most from birth to the age of five.

Schools and Peers  Activities such as the Pledge of Allegiance help mold children's’ respect and appreciation of their nation. This in turn affects how patriotic they become in the future.  “The Weekly Reader” has predicted elections accurately since 1956 except in the case of Bill Clinton’s presidential election.  Organizations like the Girl Scouts of the U.S.A. encourage young girls to become more involved in politics and to view politics positively.

High School & College  High schools offer courses on U.S. affairs which cause citizens to vote more often as they are better informed as to their role in the political world.  Most researchers believe that college liberalizes students. Recently however (1995-present), studies have shown that more and more college freshman indentify themselves as liberal when they enter college rather than become liberal after enrollment.

The Mass Media  Television networks such as MTV encourage young viewers to vote. Many people now turn to programs such as The Daily show and The Tonight Show for information rather than traditional sources of news.  Facebook and other social networks  Ad. push

The Impact of Events  Events such as the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and the terrorist attacks of 9/11 evoke a profound sense of patriotism.  Some events cause widespread distrust of the government as with the Watergate scandal, the Vietnam War, and the Civil Rights Movement.

Religion  Those who are more religious are also more conservative and vote Republican by a 2:1 margin.  A leader of a certain religious faith is in most cases accepted more by others of a similar ideology than those of different beliefs.  Religion is also probably the most important factor in predicting votes.

Gender  Women are more likely to be Democrats whereas men are becoming the core of the Republican party.  It is commonly suggested by analysts that the “nurturing” nature of women causes them to have more liberal attitudes though research has not provided a positive association between the two.  Women were shown in public opinion polls to be more against war and military intervention until the 1990s.

Ethnicity

Public Opinion & Polling  Public opinion, simply put, is what the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues.  Governmental decision makers have relied on public opinion polls since the 1930s.  George Gallup, the founder of modern day polling, states that polls have played a key roll in defining and resolving issues of concern to the public.  Gallup and others who share his beliefs think that decisions should be made based on the feelings of the majority of the public, but there are others who believe the government should side with those whose opinions are most strongly expressed in the public arena.

The History of Public Opinion Research  In 1883 the Boston Globe tried to predict the winning presidential candidate by sending people to record votes outside of voting booths.  Walter Lippmann's “Public Opinion”(1922) is said to have been the primary influence of political polling.  Literary Digest was magazine that pioneered the unscientific straw polling as early as Straw polling proved to be very effective for the Literary Digest, which correctly predicted every election until 1936 when it predicted President Franklin D. Roosevelt would be beat by a margin of fifty-three to forty- seven percent. Roosevelt won the election with a popular vote of sixty-two percent.  Polling began to become more advanced by the 1940s though nobody, not even George Gallup, correctly predicted that President Harry S. Truman would defeat Thomas E. Dewey.

Types of Polls  Tracking polls- Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends.  Exit polls- Polls conducted at polling places on election day.  Deliberative poll- A new kind of poll first used in A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy. A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.

Shortcomings of Polling  Al Gore’s Florida in 2000  Margin of Error  Sampling Error  Limited Responses  Lack of Participation  Intensity

Why We Form and Express Political Opinions Political Knowledge Cues From Leaders Political Opinions Personal Beliefs

The Effects of Public Opinion on Government & Politics  The way public opinion constantly shifts it would not be a wise basis for the decisions of politicians or any government. The majority of the public could simply be mindless drones for example.  Bandwagon and underdog affects can occur as a result of poll distortion.  Inaccurate polling can cause problems.  A politician can become more dependent on public opinion than thoughtful debate.