Scenario Activity Nasser Olwero, Emily McKenzie 2 April, InVEST Introductory Seminar, Bangkok

Scenario exercise #1 Choose the types of scenarios that will enable InVEST results to address policy goals: – Policies, projects or plans – Unexpected future possibilities – Visions for the future – Business as usual Decide how many scenarios you will develop Determine the appropriate scale and timeframe Describe each scenario as a narrative story

Scenario exercise #2 For each scenario – What are the main drivers of change? – What rules would apply for each scenario?

What are the main drivers of change? CategoryDrivers Social and demographic Population growth or decline Migration Cultural values Awareness Poverty Diet patterns Education Religious values Technological Technological innovation Technology choice Economic Economic growth Trade patterns and barriers Commodity prices Income and income distribution Market development Demand and consumption patterns Environmental Climate change Air and water pollution Introduction of invasive alien species Political Macroeconomic policy Other policy, e.g. subsidies, incentives, taxes Governance and corruption Property rights and land tenure Land-use plans, zoning and management

Types of rules Biophysical rules – Climate, e.g. rainfall – Topography, e.g. slope, elevation – Soil, e.g. type, depth Socio-economic rules – Accessibility, e.g. infrastructure, population density – Governance, e.g. land tenure, protected areas – Demography, e.g. poverty, education Threshold rules, e.g. LC expands at < 2,000 meters altitude Location rules, e.g. LC expands in forest reserves Rate rules, e.g. LC expands at historical rate until 2015 then slows Toggle rules, e.g. LC does not expand in protected areas

Rules for Scenarios A scenario rule is a principle or condition that prescribes how changes will occur in the future. Example of rule: For agriculture in a development scenario – Will increase near roads more than far from roads – Suitable to occur up to 700 masl – Can expand into forests, cannot overlap urban areas

Rules for Scenarios Example of rule: For agriculture in a conservation scenario: – Can expand into degraded forest, but not primary forest – Can occur on no more than 20% of the landscape – Will occur only on approved conversion forest

Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem ? Drivers

Questions to get started: What has made the landscape change in the past? Are these catalysts still acting? What new things are changing the landscape? What might happen in the future that will create further changes? Drivers

Principles or conditions that prescribe how changes will occur in the future ? Rules

Questions to get started: What are the access routes for drivers of change now? How might these change in the future? Where does change occur first, where last, and why (i.e. LU, LC)? What geographic factors influence where change occurs (e.g. elevation, gradient)? Rules

Limitations or restrictions on where or how change occurs ? Constraints

Questions to get started: What restricts drivers of change now? How might this change in the future? What new limits might we expect? Why? Where will particular drivers or changes not occur? Why not? Constraints