What does Public Policy ask of Complexity Science? Peter Dick Department of Health, UK Government ECCS ’12, Brussels, September 2012

Public Policy and Complexity Science 2 Overview The changing nature of the state & changing demands on public policy Public policy and complex systems What does public policy ask of complexity science? - Society as a complex, multi-level system - The policy world as a complex system - Policy-making as a complex system and a learning process - Public policy discourse as a complex system Conclusion

Public Policy and Complexity Science 3 The changing nature of the state & changing demands on public policy Loss of sole control over public policy to global, local & private organisations and authorities Increasing interdependencies & dynamic connectivities Unstable, shifting & ambiguous boundaries between organisations - and between policy issues Increasing diversity and an awareness of the need to respond to this diversity Policy issues becoming more complex, more dynamic, more ‘wicked’ Globalisation Localisation Privatisation

Public Policy and Complexity Science 4 Policy-making - the Policy Cycle Policy evaluation Policy monitoring Policy implementation Policy development – appraisal of options – decision Problem definition Political agenda

Public Policy and Complexity Science 5 Public policy and complex systems Simple, often implicit, models: everyone is more or less the same; everyone interacts more or less randomly; everything settles down in the long run; little feedback, no learning, little change; deterministic; emphasis on ‘averages’; deal with one level at a time

Public Policy and Complexity Science 6 Public policy and complex systems Simple, often implicit, models: everyone is more or less the same; everyone interacts more or less randomly; everything settles down in the long run; little feedback, no learning, little change; deterministic; emphasis on ‘averages’; deal with one level at a time Heterogeneity Contact structure Dynamics matters Distributions Learning, adaptation Stochastic elements Multiple levels interacting, emergence “ Organised Complexity “

Public Policy and Complexity Science 7 Society as a complex, multi-level system Can we map & model the important & relevant social networks? What data do we need to do this? Can we understand: - the impact of social networks on individual & system behaviour? - multi-level interactions within society? - the role of history, lock-in & system memory? - crises & critical social transitions and their indicators? - systemic risks and their regulation? How can we identify adaptive opportunities; can we learn to learn? Can we make use of the self-organising capacity of social systems? Can we understand the origins of systemic inequalities? Nodes here are people, groups, communities, sub- groups within society, community organisations

Public Policy and Complexity Science 8 The policy world as a complex system What are the most productive roles for the different actors in the policy world? Specifically, what is the most productive role for government in the policy system; How should policy actors interact? What does it mean to be ‘steward’ of an open social system? Is there any role for ‘control’? How are different policy actors to be held to account in a distributed, multi- level, ever-changing world of policy making? Nodes here are political and official policy makers, commentators, citizens, international, national & local organisations

Public Policy and Complexity Science 9 Policy-making as a complex system and a learning process How do we make policy-making a learning process? Could the policy-making process support social learning? Can we make public policy adaptive? What exactly would adaptive policy look like? What data flows would be required to operate adaptively? What are the appropriate measures of success for public policy in open, diverse and dynamic social systems? How do we develop truly distributed policy-making? Nodes here are the elements of the policy-making process

Public Policy and Complexity Science 10 Public policy discourse as a complex system How do we make this discourse as diverse as possible? How do we ensure that all voices are heard, at the appropriate point in the policy-making process – and responded to? How do we introduce productive public consultation & feedback into policy-making? How do we use the diversity of voices to improve the quality of policy- making? How do we avoid a mere cacophony? Nodes here are ideas, voices, opinions

Public Policy and Complexity Science 11 Conclusion and onwards Many of the problems that policy makers deal with - and that hit the newspaper headlines – are complex system problems, problems of organised complexity …. Policy-makers and analysts need your help and support in understanding and in tackling these problems. Thank You,