Lesson Learned from MDG Monitoring Workshop on Millennium Development Goals Monitoring: 2015 and Beyond (Bangkok, 9-13 July 2012)

What have we achieved with the monitoring framework (1)? Advantages of having an agreed framework for monitoring the development agenda: Strong partnership between the international statistical systems and countries for the development of statistics for MDG indicators Improved coordination within countries for reporting at the national and sub-national level Increased attention to the need for strengthening statistical capacity

What have we achieved with the monitoring framework (2)? Advantages of having an agreed framework for monitoring the development agenda: Improved data availability Promoted a dialogue between national and international statistical systems on statistical capacity building and other important issues Promoted the adoption of internationally agreed statistical standards and helped resolve inconsistencies between national and international data sets

On the monitoring: what have we learnt (1)? Indicators were perceived by national statistical systems primarily as a “top-down” initiative Having a fixed list of indicators may distort policy priorities The framework overlooks inequality and specific population groups Global targets were interpreted as national targets, penalizing the poorer countries

On the monitoring: what have we learnt (2)? The numerical targets were erroneously set (generally too ambitious and based on global trends dominated by a few countries) There is often no consistency between targets and indicators Some targets are poorly specified Inconsistencies between national and international data created problems at the national level and tension in the international statistical community

MDG Monitoring: Setting targets: a few examples Goal 4: Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate –Only about 25 countries reduced by two-thirds from 1990 to Among these 25 countries, most of them are high income or middle income countries with relatively low under-five mortality rate (U5MR) –If the annual rate of decline over continues, the world will not reach MDG 4 until 2037

MDG Monitoring: Setting targets: a few examples Measuring relative change vs. absolute change ‾Performance on most of the MDGs are measured in relative terms, which puts countries with a poor starting point at a disadvantage. ‾Monitoring MDG progress should use both relative and absolute changes and should investigate the association between them to gain the maximum possible insight into the MDG progress. ‾Example: Goal 4 – Reduce Under-Five Child Mortality by two thirds

MDG Monitoring: Setting targets: a few examples Top 20 performers based Relative Change (RC) over , RC= (X X 1990 )/X 1990 Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High incomeTotal Caucasus and Central Asia 1 1 Eastern Asia 2 2 Latin America & the Caribbean 15 6 Northern Africa 2 2 Oceania 1 1 South-eastern Asia1 1 2 Southern Asia21 3 Western Asia 1 23 Total

MDG Monitoring: Setting targets: a few examples Top 20 performers based Absolute Change (AC) over , AC= X X 1990 Low income Lower middle incomeTotal Eastern Asia 11 South-eastern Asia1 1 Southern Asia224 Sub-Saharan Africa13114 Total16420

MDG Monitoring: Setting targets: a few examples Baseline year: The Millennium Declaration was adopted in September 2000 by the General Assembly and the MDG monitoring framework was established in is normally used as the reference/benchmark year for MDG monitoring. This leads to a discrimination against countries with poor 1990s performance.

Reduce extreme poverty by half - Bolivia

Reduce Child Mortality and Maternal Mortality Region Under-5 Child MortalityMaternal Mortality AARR ( )( )( )( ) Developing Regions Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Asia South-eastern Asia Southern Asia Western Asia Oceania Latin America and the Caribbean Caucasus and Central Asia ● Progress toward achieving these two MDGs are assessed by calculating an average annual rate of reduction (AARR). The AARR is calculated on an exponential basis, which assumes a continuous, exponential reduction between two points in time.

Reduce Child Mortality and Maternal Mortality Number of countries that have faster AARR in than in / Total number of countries in the region Region Under-5 Child MortalityMaternal Mortality Developing Regions90/13979/124 Northern Africa 1/50/5 Sub-Saharan Africa 40/4737/45 Eastern Asia 3/4 South-eastern Asia 4/10 Southern Asia 6/95/9 Western Asia 8/127/12 Oceania 5/112/3 Latin America and the Caribbean 19/3316/28 Caucasus and Central Asia 4/85/8

MDG Monitoring: The selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets: a few examples Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3.A. Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and to all levels of education no later than 2015 Ind Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (ILO) The target does not address the whole spectrum of the goal. The indicator does not have a clear link with the target. The indicator is not completely adequate to address gender equality in the labour market. Other variables would need to be considered, such as working conditions, the levels of remuneration and wage differentials, labour legislation and social benefits, full-time versus part-time jobs, the status in employment, the importance of the informal sector/home-based work in the country, etc.

Experience with monitoring the MDGs The IAEG has initiated work to assess its experience in monitoring the MDGs in order to provide the necessary technical inputs to guide the formulation of a possible post 2015 monitoring framework Testing proposals for a set of criteria for the selection of indicators (prepared by countries member of the IAEG) Doing the analytical work necessary for the formulation of targets (based not only on global trends, but for different groups of countries)

Criteria for the selection of the indicators The IAEG is working on testing criteria for the selection of the key indicators to be included in the framework. The criteria being tested include principles such as: National statistical systems should be fully involved in the selection of common indicators There should be continuity with the current set of indicators Indicators must have well established metadata and be relevant to most countries Indicators should be based on existing internationally agreed definitions and classifications Indicators should not require ad hoc data collection

Criteria for the selection of the indicators (2) Indicators should have an unambiguous interpretation: more (or less) is always better (or worse) Indicators should be clearly linked to the target Indicators should be sensitive to interventions/change/progress (short term) Each indicator should have some complementarities to other indicators (helps constitute a monitoring system)

Some reflections by the IAEG Different targets should be set at the national level (the IAEG has agreed to eliminate the on track/off track assessment for countries) Numerical targets should be realistically set, based on assessment of trends in regions, sub-regions and/or smaller groups of countries as necessary (a plausible historical/analytical basis -- analytical work by IAEG is ongoing) The set of indicators should be developed with a view to keeping the burden to countries to a minimum The monitoring framework should include a minimum set of common indicators, supplemented by indicators to measure processes/efforts to be used (including at the national level)

Indicators should measure both absolute change and relative change Changes in population size and structure should be explicitly incorporated in the monitoring tool Indicators should regularly be reported for different groups of the population when relevant, and indicators be to the largest extent possible disaggregated by sex, wealth quintiles, and urban/rural residence, and disparities monitored over time Some reflections by the IAEG

The way forward The IAEG will conduct the testing and analytical work. At the October 2012 meeting, the proposals will be reviewed by representatives from national statistical systems. The Statistical Commission will also prepare a contribution on “key issues that should find their place in the post-2015 agenda”, as requested by the president of ECOSOC and provide its contribution to the Bureau of the Council by the end of December 2012.

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