Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Simulation Analysis & Vizualization John.

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Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Simulation Analysis & Vizualization John Taylor Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions Argonne National Laboratory USA ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Outline u Background - Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) u Regional Collaborative Climate Center u Regional Climate Research Activities at ANL

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Enhanced Spatial Resolution Increasing spatial resolution is essential to correctly simulate regional climate variability and change, which affects agriculture, water resources and energy consumption.

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ACPI Research Priorities u Model development and evaluation –Atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice components, coupled models, process parameterizations, simulation design, algorithm development u Climate projections –Optimization of computer performance, multi-decade ensemble simulations, archives of petabyte data sets, generation of probability distributions u Assessment and analysis of impacts –Policy evaluation, impacts research, regional/national/international assessments, specialized tools and data sets, information dissemination

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY 70 km atmos 15 km ocean 140 km atmos 30 km ocean 30 km atmos 9 km ocean 30 km atmos 9 km ocean 30 km atmos 9 km ocaan 70 km atmos 15 km ocean Global System Model Capability Roadmap Develop and test Component Models Link Components and test Coupled Model Ensemble Projections Machine 1 TF5 TF 40 TF

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Centers - Motivation - u to link the predictive global climate modeling capability with the impact assessment and policymaking communities

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Cost of ‘Natural Disasters’

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Data and Software Products Data and Software Products Level 0 Raw Global GCM Output from Multiple 100 Year Runs Raw Global GCM Output from Multiple 100 Year Runs Level 1 Global GCM Monthly Means and Variances Database Tools Data Extraction Tools Visualization Tools Database Tools Data Extraction Tools Visualization Tools Visualization & Analysis Tools Level 2 Regional Scale Monthly Means and Variances Downscaling Tools -Statistical -Regional Climate Model Downscaling Tools -Statistical -Regional Climate Model Level 3 User Generated Regional Scale Data Sets Regional Climate System Modeling Tools Level 4 Impact Assessment Specific Data Sets Workbenches for Impact Assessment

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Data Grids u Integrate data archives into a distributed data management and analysis “Grid” u More than storage & network, also e.g. –Caching and mirroring to exploit locality –Intelligent scheduling to determine appropriate replica, site for (re)computation, etc. –Coordinated resource management for performance guarantees –Embedded security, policy, agent technologies for effective distributed analysis

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Data Grids Usage Model u Data suppliers publish data to the Grid u Users request raw or derived data from Grid, without needing to know –Where data is located –Whether data is stored or computed u User can easily determine –What it will cost to obtain data –Quality of derived data u Data Grid serves requests efficiently, subject to global and local policy constraints

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Climate Data Scenario Simulation data archive Cache Historical data archive Cache Resource manager Cache manager mesohydrocompare Analysis engine Historical data archive Cache “How do midwest flood frequencies under 2xCO 2 scenario compare with historical data? ” Query manager “Access datasets A, B; run A->meso->hydro; compare result with B”

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Current ANL Activities u Parallel regional climate model development and testing based on MM5v3 u Comparison of MM5 PBL with ABLE data u Contributing to PIRCS experiments –PIRCS 1c 15 year run

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Current ANL Activities u Performance testing using high resolution grids (10km) over Midwest with MM5v3 u Downscaling using boundary and initial conditions derived from FOAM and NCAR PCM u Testbed for regional climate simulation laboratory - Regional climate workbench u Delivering regional climate data using interactive web based tools

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Testbed for Regional Climate Simulation Laboratory NCEP Global Analysis NCEP Global Analysis GCM Output -FOAM -CCSM/PCM ….. GCM Output -FOAM -CCSM/PCM ….. MM5 Based Regional Climate Model MM5 Based Regional Climate Model Statistical Downscaling Tools Statistical Downscaling Tools Downscaled Mid-west Climate Database Downscaled Mid-west Climate Database Interactive Web Access -maps -data Interactive Web Access -maps -data Climate Impacts Workbenches Climate Impacts Workbenches Science Teams New Process Models Analysis Tools ABLE Data

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Workbench

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Workbench

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Workbench

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Workbench

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Workbench

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Workbench

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ‘Hurricane Huron’ u An intense cutoff low developed over the Great Lakes region during the period September u The system eventually developed an eye and spiral convection bands producing intense rainfall and wind speeds in excess of 75 mph u We have investigated the role of model resolution by performing identical ‘Hurricane Huron’ simulations at 80, 40, 20 and 10 km grid resolution

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ‘Hurricane Huron’

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ‘Hurricane Huron’

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ‘Hurricane Huron’

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ‘Hurricane Huron’

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY ‘Perfect Storm’

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Regional Climate Studies u We have applied the MM5 model running on the ANL IBM-SP to simulate conditions at the ABLE site u ABLE data provide a basis for testing MM5 model performance u ABLE data are being used at ANL to improve the boundary layer parameterizations included in MM5 and other mesoscale meteorological models u Figure opposite shows vertical temperature differences between MM5 model and ABLE data from Beaumont, KS (37.63N & 96.5W) The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE) study was designed to improve the current understanding of the physics of the boundary layer (RASS = Radio Acoustic Sounding System)

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Midwest MM5v3 Scaling on ANL SGI-Origin 2000 ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Performance and Scaling u Full scale high resolution run over the United States based on PIRCS experimental setup u MM5v3.4 non-hydrostatic model runs for 1985 u 1 grid –101x75 52 km grid ie ~20.5 million km 2 u  t = 150 seconds

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Experimental Setup u Perform full scale independent experiments on Chiba City at ANL and on seaborg at NERSC u Boundary conditions based on NCEP reanalysis data

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Experimental Setup u MM5v3.4 using MPI as released by NCAR

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY 1 year Regional Climate Simulation ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Simulated Days per CPU Hour ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY 6 Processors per Month on ANL SGI-Origin 2000 ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Interactive Data Analysis

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Interactive Data Analysis

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Argonne Regional Climate Center ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY CAVE5D Version 2 64 bit version Enhanced functionality Works with large data sets 2GB+ The Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT)— This FORTRAN 90/MPI library provides a unique resource for the rapid development of model couplers MCT will be used for next generation coupler for MCS Contact Jay Larson and Rob Jacob at MCS for details

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Issues to consider…. u Downscaling methodologies/protocols u Statistical vs physically based approaches u Improving the predictive capabilities of regional climate models eg hydrological cycle, PBL, …. u Delivering “quality” data products u Global GCM input data quality u Computer science required to support a Regional Climate Center

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY SSI Citations Index “Regional Climate” ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Argonne Regional Climate Center ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY Climate Center Web Site: Argonne MCS Web Site: