1 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December February 2007
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Disclaimer This presentation is not intended, and does not, constitute or form part of, any offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of, any securities in George Wimpey Plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities, nor shall this presentation (or any part of it) nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance. Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from any expected future events or results referred to in these forward looking statements.
3 Welcome John Robinson (Chairman)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Agenda IntroductionPeter Redfern Financial review Andrew Carr-Locke US housing reviewSteve Parker UK housing reviewPeter Redfern Outlookand strategyPeter Redfern Questions and answers
5 Introduction Peter Redfern (Group Chief Executive)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Group performance 2006 Highlights Group profit before tax and pre-exceptional items at £370.9 million Group volumes at an all time high of 17,963 14% growth in UK profits delivered UK margins improved and progress plan accelerated Cost savings of £25m and $20m targeted for 2007 Cash flow of £434m generated before growth land investment, tax and returns to investors Strong balance sheet as gearing reduced to 23% New skills and strengths added across the Group
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Taking the business forward Clear strategic priorities Leadership –UK Ian Sutcliffe, Managing Director George Wimpey UK Land –UK Paul Churchouse, Head of Land Development – UK Head of Planning appointed, starts April Cost –US Lou Steffens, Senior VP Florida Region –UK Peter Williams, Head of Procurement Sales and marketing –Graham Hughes transferred to US from UK –US Sheryl Palmer, Senior VP West Region
financial review Andrew Carr-Locke (Group Finance Director)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Full year results £m 2006 before exceptional items 2006 exceptional items 2006 total 2005 total Change Revenue3, , % Operating profit422.8(60.7) % Interest(51.9)- (71.0)- 27% Profit before tax370.9(60.7) % Tax(114.9)22.7(92.2)(113.7) EPS64.4(9.6) NAV per share426p389p
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Full year results £m Change Revenue3,147.43, % Operating profit % Interest(51.9)(71.0)- 27% Profit before tax % Tax30%31% EPS NAV per share426p389p DPS19.4p17.6p ROACE Note: EPS, ROACE, operating profit and profit before tax are all shown before exceptional items
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Segmental analysis Full year 2006 TurnoverOperating profit*Operating margin** £mChange£mChange UK2, % %13.0%12.9% US % %15.5%20.0% Corporate-(11.7) TOTAL3, % % * Before exceptional items ** Operating margin before JVs and exceptional items Exchange rate in 2006 £:1.84$ 2005 £:1.82$
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Completions Full year 2006 CompletionsAve selling price NoChange£ / $Change UK private11, % % UK affordable1, % % UK total13, % % US4, % % GROUP TOTAL17,963+ 6%
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Interest charge £m Change Loans % Pensions % Derivatives(5.6)5.3 Other % TOTAL %
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US land write-downs Breakdown $m£m Land write-downs Options write-off Exceptional earnings pre-tax charge Less deferred tax(44.4)(22.7) Exceptional earnings post-tax charge EPS impact9.6p Write-down reflects selling price reduction needed to provide a normal sales rate calculated on a prudent basis
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US land write-downs Industry comparisons Land write-down and options write-off $m Land stocks (years) Morrison Homes Centex DR Horton Hovnanian KB Homes Lennar Pulte Ryland Standard Pacific Toll Brothers Credit Suisse estimates/company’s own reports – 2006 year end
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Balance sheet £m31 Dec Dec 2005 Fixed assets and joint ventures Land2,339.92,153.4 Deferred terms(607.3)(380.5) Other net operating assets Tax and provisions(90.6)(104.9) Net pension deficit(116.8)(129.2) TOTAL CAPITAL EMPLOYED2,094.22,066.3
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Balance sheet Financing 31 Dec Dec 2005 Shareholders’ funds £m1,707.11,544.4 Net debt £m Capital employed £m2,094.22,066.3 Gearing23%34% Interest cover last 12 months 7.0x6.2x Cash interest cover last 12 months 8.3x8.8x
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Cash flow summary £m Operating profit Land realisations Replacement land spend(781.1)(762.7) Other working capital movements(43.2)(49.0) Cash inflow before growth Growth land spend(129.3)(76.3) Cash inflow from operations Interest / tax(151.4)(171.3) Dividends(58.2)(53.7) Exchange rate / other39.3(62.9) Decrease (increase) in net debt134.8(1.0)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Financial summary Full year 2006 Group profit before tax*£370.9 m+ 1% UK operating profit**£317.6 m + 14% US operating profit* $214.7 m - 30% ROACE last 12 months*20.3% (2005: 22.3%) Gearing 23% (2005: 34%) Shareholders’ funds £1,707.1 m+ 11% Dividend 19.4p+ 10% * Before exceptional items ** Operating profit including JVs
20 US housing review Steve Parker (President, Morrison Homes)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Financial summary Change2004 Legal completions4,3474, %4,422 Ave selling price$319,600$312,700+ 2%$288,900 Revenue $m1,389.11, %1,277.3 Operating profit $m %188.3 Operating margin15.5%20.0%- 4.5pp14.7%
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December started with soft market conditions, steadily worsened through to Q4 Tough market conditions caused by –increased interest rates –affordability –investors cancelling homes under contract –overstocking of inventory –incentives/discounting by US competitors Consistently weak across Arizona, Florida and Northern California US housing 2006 market conditions
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Short term market conditions Total US stock position Dec 2006June 2006Dec 2005June 2005 Existing homes 3.5 m3.7 m2.8 m2.7 m Months’ supply New homes 0.54 m0.57 m 0.48 m0.50 m Months’ supply Source: NAR/US Census Bureau New homes includes homes completed, under construction and not yet started
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Industry comparisons 2006 CompanyPBIT marginsROACELand stocks (years) Morrison Homes15.5%24.6%3.5 Centex11.7%11.6%6.4 DR Horton14.6%12.9%6.1 Hovnanian5.4%5.3%5.3 KB Homes13.8%15.8%5.1 Lennar14.2%18.4%6.8 Pulte12.7%13.7%6.6 Ryland14.9%19.4%4.1 Standard Pacific17.2%11.8%6.0 Toll Brothers20.4%14.9%8.6 Estimates from Credit Suisse, pre-exceptional figures based on latest full year
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Total landbank
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing 2007 market conditions First 7 weeks show early signs of stabilisation –steady housing inventory levels –flattening of incentives –cancellation rates back to historical levels –traffic levels higher than 2006 –improving press coverage
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Morrison sales performance Week H H Ave outlets open Ave sales rate Ave sales price Ave cancellation rate20%52%26%15%14% No. in order book1, ,0751,9951,705
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Average weekly sales rates
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Performance initiatives Land –renegotiation of existing land contracts –land buying process $20 million targeted cost savings –5% initial reduction in build costs –initiatives across all areas of the business –outsource second year warranty programme Overhead reductions – 20% across the business –‘right-sizing the business’ Sales –clear strategy –focus on opening outlets on time –achieve and maintain a consistent sales rate –re-build backlog levels
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Summary Early 2007 shows signs of market stability Order book low coming into 2007 Firm actions taken in challenging year –focus on driving sales volume in H2 to build the backlog We believe we are well placed for 2008
31 UK housing review Peter Redfern (Group Chief Executive)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Financial summary Change Legal completions – total13,61612, % Private11,98210, % Affordable1,6341, % Ave selling price – total£175,400£178,000- 1% Private£186,400£188,600- 1% Affordable£94,900£98,600- 4% Revenue £m2,391.22, % Operating profit £m % Operating margin*13.0%12.9%+ 0.1pp *Excluding JV results
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Delivery on promises H low point of marginGross margin in H2 2.2% ahead Better H1/2 balancingH compared to H over 25% improvement Impact of strong order bookReal benefits of stronger negotiating position delivered in H Develop our good cost saving performanceSignificant savings underpinned margins in New target for 2007 Deal with underperforming businessesThe 6 lowest performing businesses in 2005 have increased margins by over 4%
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Market conditions Market stable throughout period –total market volumes improved on slow 2005 –second hand market quite strong –buyer confidence solid George Wimpey underlying house price movement was 3 – 4% Continuing imbalance between supply and demand is supporting market Affordability remains constrained, but limited impact from interest rate rises
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing George Wimpey sales performance FY 2006FY 2005FY 2004 Ave outlets open Ave sales rate Ave sales price (private) No. in order book (private)3,2883,0452,421 Record 2007 opening order book gives great platform Open outlets remain as main target area for improvement
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Spotlight on cost Cost management has always been a strength of the business Ian Sutcliffe has brought a new professional focus and structure to this –specific targets set for key elements –over 80 cost reduction initiatives underway or identified to activate –new national Head of Procurement identifying significant savings Sales and marketing costs are a key target –2007 target to reduce by over £12m –driven by national/regional media and advertising production buying –driven by savings in show homes and sales benchmarking Construction costs remains an area of focus –specification and design savings key –national preferred house type range now in effect with 3,000 homes under construction
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Spotlight on cost £ Build cost as a % of revenue 51.4%52.0%50.1%51.7% Build cost per plot£90.2£92.8£93.2£90.3 Build cost per sq ft£97.5£95.7£91.9£99.3 £/per sq ft 2005 cost95.7 Estimated impact of mix changes 0.9 Impact of estimated 3.5% cost inflation 3.4 Savings in construction costs(2.5) 2006 cost97.5 Impact of £2.50 per sq ft saving equates to circa £35m pa
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Strengthened land position Owned and controlled landStrategic acres North15,63715,1376,8805,112 Midlands19,12613,4664,5084,662 South21,21319,0274,4584,395 City1,7793,355 G2244- TOTAL57,99950,98515,84614,169 14% growth in owned and controlled plots All 2007 expected completions have planning
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Source of short term owned and controlled landbank Optimum mix 40% short term 30% medium term 30% long term
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Strengthened owned land position Cost per plot (000) Opening landbank£46.5£45.4 Acquired£50.4£49.8 Completions(£49.1)(£47.1) Closing landbank£47.3£46.5 Land value % ASP25.3%26.0% Plot cost in landbank below that on completions Shift in landbank mix will start to come through in 2007
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Margin commitments firmed up H H H H Gross margin % Commitment to improvement from H ‘low point’ delivered Clear statement of future operating margin targets: – 14% in 2007 – ongoing growth to 16% over 2-3 years – longer term target of 18%
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Outlook All plots for 2007 have planning Cost savings offsetting build inflation Market conditions remain stable Very strong order book – over 40% of full year completions sold Margins in order book are ahead of H completions
43 Group outlook and strategy Peter Redfern (Group Chief Executive)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Group strategy update Stated our objectives in July 2007 –to become the leading housebuilder in the UK –to achieve top 3 positions in the high growth markets of the US In all of our businesses we believe these results are best achieved by focusing on the basics of a housebuilding business –land –continuous cost reduction –customers and sales processes –people Growth and financial results automatically follow where we get these basics right Significant step changes in 2006 over previous years
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Group strategy US strategy update In difficult markets we have re-examined our strategy, and believe that it holds good The US homebuilding markets in growth states retain their capacity to deliver exceptional profits over time We have reduced our total risk exposure without damaging the long term capacity of the business We have enhanced the competitive position of Morrison –landbank value protected –exceptional people recruited –cost management approach upgraded significantly –sales processes reviewed and strengthened
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December George Wimpey Plc Outlook UK market stable, some interest rate risk, but currently robust Strong forward position in the UK –order book –landbank –2007 planning Commitment to exceed 14% UK operating margin in expected to remain tough on bottom line in the US –weak order book and pressure on prices However all signs are of US market stabilising –good chance of recovery towards stronger 2008
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December George Wimpey Plc Forthcoming events AGM statement and trading update26 April 2007 Pre-close trading update –management dinner27 June 2007 Interim results1 August 2007 Site visitOctober 2007
48 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2006 APPENDIX
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December George Wimpey Plc Undeveloped land disposals £m Land sales UK US TOTAL Profit UK US TOTAL Land sales are not included in revenue. Profits on land sales are included in net operating expenses
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December George Wimpey Plc Group reservations ReservationsAve outletsPer outlet / per week UK private12,22511, UK affordable1,6241,881 UK TOTAL13,84913,199 US TOTAL3,1065, GROUP TOTAL16,95518,
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December Impact of dollar Change Morrison Homes turnover $m$1,389.1$1, % Morrison Homes op profit $m$214.7$ % Ave exchange rate Morrison Homes turnover £m£756.2£ % Morrison Homes £ op profit £m£116.9£ %
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Turnover analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Volume4,347 2,379 1,9684,9212,9251,996 ASP $000s Turnover $m1, ,
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Margin analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross profit $m Gross margin % Direct Selling $m(81.4)(44.7)(36.7)(72.8)(41.2)(31.6) Overhead costs $m(78.3)(38.9)(39.4)(76.4)(40.6)(35.8) Land profits Operating profit $m Operating margin %
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Activity analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave house size sq ft2,2742,1512,4232,2992,2632,355 ASP $ / sq ft
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Price mix Completions %YearH2H1YearH2H1 $0 – 200k $201 – 250k $251 – 300k $301 – 350k $ k $ k $451 – 500k $500k TOTAL100
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Geographic mix CompletionsYearH2H1YearH2H1 West , Southeast1, ,2531, Southwest1,8351, , TOTAL4,3472,3791,9684,9212,9251,996 Average selling price $000 West Southeast Southwest TOTAL
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Regional performance TurnoverOperating profitOperating margin 2006 $m 2005 $m 2006 $m 2005 $m 2006 % 2005 % West Southeast Southwest Corporate--(16.4)(23.7)-- TOTAL1,3891,
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Short term land Owned and optionedYearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period20,81220,13620,81218,89219,66118,892 Additions1, ,2926,8414,0762,765 Legal completions(4,347)(2,379)(1,968)(4,921)(2,925)(1,996) End of period18,099 20,13620,812 19,661 Controlled End of period638 3,5392,702 3,058 TOTAL LANDBANK18,737 23,67523,514 22,719 LAND SPEND $m
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December US housing Landbank by region West3,0474,093 Southeast9,45911,989 Southwest6,2317,432 TOTAL18,73723,514
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Turnover analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Privatevolume11,9826,8445,13810,6786,5244,154 ASP £ turnover £m2,2331, ,0141, Affordablevolume1, ,4221, ASP £ turnover £m Otherturnover £m TOTALvolume13,6167,7625,85412,1007,5244,576 ASP £ turnover £m2,3911,3601,0312,1581,311847
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Margin analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross profit £m Gross margin %20.6%21.5%19.3%21.5%20.3%23.5% Direct Selling £m(85.8)(42.8)(43.0)(86.2)(45.7)(40.5) Overhead costs(113.5)(61.7)(51.8)(114.6)(58.3)(56.3) Land profits Operating profit £m Operating margin* %13.0%14.3%11.2%12.9%13.1%12.7% JV results7.68.1(0.5)(0.8)(0.1)(0.7) Profit before interest * Operating margin excludes JV results
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Private development product mix Completions %YearH2H1YearH2H1 Apartments41%42%40%36%37%34% 1 / 2 / 3 bed houses29%28%31%32% 4 / 5 bed houses30% 29%32%31%34% TOTAL100%
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Private development activity analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Average house size sq ft ,015 Average selling price (£/sq ft)
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Private development price mix Completions %YearH2H1YearH2H1 £51 – 100k £101 – 150k £151 – 200k £201 – 250k £251 – 300k £301 – 500k £500k TOTAL100
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Private development geographic mix LegalsSize sq ft ASP £000 LegalsSize sq ft ASP £000 North3,9631, ,8131, Midlands3, , South4, , City TOTAL11, , Joint Ventures TOTAL11, ,
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Private development average weekly sales rates
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Private development net sales prices on reservations
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Short term land (private and affordable) OWNED YearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period39,44141,68839,44137,22239,78437,222 Net acquired17,4269,3258,10114,3197,1817,138 Completions(13,616)(7,762)(5,854)(12,100)(7,524)(4,576) End of period43,251 41,68839,441 39,784 CONTROLLED14,748 12,82911,544 14,596 TOTAL LANDBANK57,999 54,51750,985 54,380
Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December UK housing Owned land (private and affordable) Short termPlotsCost per plot £k Value £m PlotsCost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank39, ,83337, ,690 Net acquired17, , Completions(13,616)49.1(668)(12,100)47.1(569) End of period43, ,04439, ,833 Strategic Acres Value £m End of period 15, ,169 71