Housing Market Update. 2 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Profile of house price ‘recovery’ for.

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Presentation transcript:

Housing Market Update

2 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Profile of house price ‘recovery’ for selected cities Source: Hometrack City definitions are based on Primary Urban Area definitions from State of the English Cities Report, 2005 >The recovery in owner occupied capital values varies widely reflecting largely demand side factors. >Chart shows profile of recovery relative to 2007 peak and recent trough for selected cities (based on PUAs) >Nationally, 86% of housing markets are still below 2007 peak levels. 49% markets 10% or more off peak levels. London Manchester Bolton Reading Rochdale Wigan Bristol

3 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Private house building delivery – Greater Manchester >New housing starts declined over downturn. >Shift from flats to family housing – flats fallen from 62%+ starts in 2004 to 13% in >Builders focused on lower working capital and buyers with existing equity and access to finance. >Public housing starts higher in 2013 than anytime in last decade. Source: Hometrack analysis of NHBC data Aspiration/ Economics/ credit

4 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Private house building capacity – Greater Manchester >Red line shows the total number of builders who started homes for developments of any size across GM. >Average number of private housing starts per builders per annum has remained relatively static. >Today around two thirds fewer builders are developing than in Source: Hometrack analysis of NHBC data

5 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity House prices relative to 2007 peak Source: Hometrack

6 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity £psf sales values – impact on development viability Source: Hometrack

7 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Wigan Prices Over Time

8 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Wigan Rents Over Time

9 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Income to rent and buy outright (2 bed property) Source: Hometrack

10 © Hometrack 2013 Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity Income required to access housing – Wigan (2 bed) Source: Hometrack calculations