1 Turkish Economy : An Overview N. Kamuran MALATYALI.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Global Development Finance 2006 The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows By Mr. Hans Timmer June 2006.

Advertisements

Strong growth in developing economies Real GDP annual percent change Forecast 2008 Source: World Bank Average growth rate 1980s 2000s 1990s.

SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Small economies and financial crisis Horwath Nordic Pentti Hakkarainen Deputy Governor Bank.

Test 1. Currency Crisis Financial Crisis Banking Crisis Foreign Debt Crisis.

Macro Developments of Romania “The Tiger of the East” Mariya Kaneva Stilyana Kandjeva April 1 st, 2009.

Current challenges with EMU Economic differences, euro area enlargement and the revised Stability and Growth pact Dr. Jürgen Kröger The 12th Dubrovnik.

The global crisis and trade in the Middle East and North Africa region Farrukh Iqbal The World Bank May 5, 2009.

60% Gross Domestic Product 40% EU signed Maastricht Treaty, under which EDP was defined in article 104. According to the treaty, fiscal surveillance.

THE GREAT RECESSION AND THE DEVELOPING WORLD JOSÉ ANTONIO OCAMPO COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY.

Turkish Crisis of 2001 Jeffrey Brandt Jennifer Hsu Christian Wheeler.

Eric Johnson.  The Euro: A Summary  History Lesson  Sovereign Debt Crisis  Future of the Euro  Q & A.

ECO 358 International Economics Professor Malamud BEH – 3294 Fax: 895 – – Website:

Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy Central Bank of Chile October 2002.

The global financial crisis and banking – Lessons from Emerging Europe Caijing Conference, December 13, 2008 Erik Berglof Chief Economist European Bank.

Critiques of Capitalism Week 5. Growth as a religion Is a larger real GDP always preferable to a smaller real GDP?

German Economy from Crisis to Boom: A Model for Recovery? October , 2010 Bangkok, Thailand Oliver Wieck Managing Director Department for International.

Economic Overview June Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline.

The European Monetary Union (the eurozone)

Estonia Another crises country. Background and History Details of the relevant history, pertinent to its economic condition. Position of the.

The Global Economic Environment

Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q

Economic Growth in Latin America: Past, Present and Future Perspectives. Andrés Solimano ECLAC, United Nations November 11, 2004.

T HE E CONOMY OF H UNGARY ByDiyan Mitev. G ENERAL I NFO ON H UNGARY Area: total: 93,030 sq km – 115rank Population: 9,930,915 (July 2008 est.) Birth rate:

The Global Economy European Monetary Union. European Union Emerged from post-WWII Europe –ECSC meant to end wars between France and Germany Evolved into.

Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last six months Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last.

Firm in Home serve foreign markets / source from abroad? Stay domestic Export Export or local production? Import or local production? Import Multinational.

Overview Bill Reese International Finance 1. Learning Objectives In this unit we will learn:  The history of XRs in the U.S.  The different types of.

European Union.

Achieving sustainable growth in SEE: Macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, socio-political support, and a sound financial system Governor Fullani,

J.P.Morgan Chase IV ASTANA Economic Forum Astana, Kazakhstan May 3-4, 2011 S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L The Global Economy:

Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 13, 2012.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

1 Simple View of Exchange Rate Determination. 2 EUR exchange rate against the dollar: EUR value in USD.

1 Lessons of The East Asian Crisis Joseph E. Stiglitz Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics The World Bank August 26, 1998.

Standard SS6G5b: Describe the purpose of the European Union and the relationship between member nations.

International Economics: Theory, Application, and Policy, Ch. 2;  Charles van Marrewijk, Figure 2.1 Léon Walras (1834–1910)

European Union Intro Tomas Cahlik. Outline Deepening Deepening Enlargement Enlargement Transition in the Central and East European Countries Transition.

AN OVERVIEW ON TURKISH ECONOMY AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS KEMAL UNAKITAN MINISTER OF FINANCE September 5, 2008 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF FINANCE.

Özgür ERKER Assistant General Manager Treasury and Financial Institutions Division 30 June 2012.

The Global Economic Environment The Coming Boom Wealthy Industrial Countries Developing Countries East Asia South Asia Latin America

Jump-starting the Global Economy Bold Policy Recommendations for the G7 Countries Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist Global Insight October 28, 2002.

Crash, Euro crises and welfare futures. Outline: from 2008 to 2012 Why the crash in ? – On mortgages, banks and public expenditure How the disease.

Outline for 12/10: International Development II Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) Latin American Debt Crisis The New IMF: structural adjustment.

1 Global Financial Crisis and Central Asia Ana Lucía Coronel IMF Mission Chief for Kazakhstan Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary.

Economy and Banking Sector in Turkey Beirut, Lebanon December, 2010.

South East Europe in an Environment of Volatile Capital Flows Sarajevo, June 5 and 6, 2014 Michael Faulend

European Union Tomas Cahlik European Union Tomas Cahlik.

Standard SS6G5b: Describe the purpose of the European Union and the relationship between member nations.

Economic Overview October Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline.

 Used by 17 of 27 countries  Used for all payments starting in 2002  Should be used by all countries once they join THE EURO.

1 APRIL 2006 Credit Trends in LA: The Chilean Experience José De Gregorio Vice Governor Central Bank of Chile.

Lecture 11. Assessment of Reforms. Lecture outline Basic macroeconomic indicators –GDP –Unemployment –Productivity –Investment –Inflation Impediments.

The Euro Area Crisis: Origins, Prospects and Implications for the World Economy and Global Governance Domenico Lombardi UNLV, April 3, 2013.

Economic Overview December 2015.

"Forces of change in world tourism. The role of governments, enterprises and the need for p-p partnerships" Carlos Vogeler Chairman Affiliate Members UNWTO.

Purpose of the European Union For its members to work together for advantages that would be out of their reach if each were working alone Believe that.

Impact of the Western Hemisphere’s free trade agreements on the foreign sector and the sustainability of the debt José Luis Machinea 15 August 2003 Departament.

Economic Overview April Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline.

1. What would you do with $5,000? Be specific. 2. What percentage of taxes should the government take? 3. Where is the safest place to keep your money?

Part A: Global Environment

Small economies and financial crisis Horwath Nordic

The structure of economy in Hungary

European Union.

The European Union.

Dubravko Mihaljek Bank for International Settlements

The Bulgarian Economy in Time of Global Instability

Turkish economy and banking sector 36th Meeting of the EU-Turkey JCC

European Debt Crisis Arturo Peguero Pei-ling Liu Nilar Thein.

History, introduction and importance today

Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Europe

Presentation transcript:

1 Turkish Economy : An Overview N. Kamuran MALATYALI

2 Presentation Outline  Once Upon a Time : Land of Crises Anti-Inflationary Programme  Paving the Road  Structural Shift  2008 Syndrome  New Global Environment  Wuthering Heights  Turkey : A Hub with Relative Stability?

Once Upon A Time – Land of Crises  Turkish Economy Experienced Hard Times During the Previous Century  Between (78 years) the number of (-) growth years: 14  (1927, 1932, 1935, 1940, 1941, 1944, 1945, 1949, 1954, 1979, 1980, 1994, 1999, 2001)  Recurring crises every 5.5 years, on the average  Long run average growth rate of the economy: %4.4 3

Once Upon A Time – Land of Crises  1990s were nightmare with respect to any indicator  Sustainability was the real issue  High Public Sector Borrowing Requirement => High Domestic Borrowing => High and volatile inflation + High Interest Rates + High rates of depreciation  Recurring Deep Crises: 1994, 1999  Volatility in Growth 4

Borrowing Requirement and Debt Stock 5

Real Rate of Interest 6

Growth and Contraction 7

Once Upon A Time – Anti-Inflationary Programme  To restore stability - Disinflation Programme of 2000 : Failure  2001 February Crisis  Transition to the Strong Economy Programme : Comprehensive restructuring (privatization, free market regulations), free float, sustainability in public finance, banking system rehabilitation 8

Paving the Road – Structural Shift 9

Real Rates of Interest 10

Increased Welfare 11

Contained Debt Risk 12

Paving the Road – 2008 Syndrome  2008 Global Crisis Deeply Affected the World  It is still under way  2001 Crisis of Turkey (collapse of the banking system and its rehabilitation) shielded Turkey in

Syndrome - Growth of the World Economy

2008 Syndrome - World Trade Volume (% Change) 15

2008 Syndrome – Turkish Current Account Balance 16

2008 Syndrome - Paving the Road 17

New Global Environment  Things are pretty different beginning by 2008  System seeks shelter and a stable ground 18

Debt Stock/GDP (EU Definition) EU Definition of Debt Stock in EU Member Countries / GDP (%) Euro Zone (17 Count.)) EU(27 Countries) Greece Italy Belçgium Portugal Germany France Hungary UK Austria Netherlands Spain Turkey

Euro Imports of Goods and Services (% Change) 20

World Trade Volume (% Change) 21

22 Pre-and Post-Growth Performance of the Global Crisis World Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies

23

24 Turkish economy benefited from the positive global climate.

25 Growth in the World Economy

Growth Performance 26 WorldAdvancedEmerging

Turkey : A Hub with Relative Stability?  Things have changed  Turkey has increased degree of openness  Stabilized economic structure  Foreign participation 27

AVERAGE GDP GROWTH RATES IN TURKEY OVER PERIODS 28

Development in the Measure of Openness of Turkey 29

Growth Performance of Developing Economies 30 Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and North Europe Emerging Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean

IMF Growth Projections 31 World Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies

Growth in Advanced Economies 32 Euro-zoneG-7 Economies

Growth Comparisons 33 Emerging and Developing Economies Turkey_IMF Turkey_OVP

General Government Gross Debt / GDP 34 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Turkey

35 Growth Performance of Developing Economies, and Turkey

36 Private Capital Flows towards Emerging Economies

37

Current Account Deficit in Economies Similar To Turkey 38 Emerging and Developing Economies Central and East Europe Turkey(IMF) Turkey(OVP)

Paving the Road – Structural Shift 39

40

41 Periodic Growth Rates of the World Economy

42 Current Account Deficit and Fund Flows