John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH 20 th Century Solutions to 21 st Century Problems? 1 st November 2013

“Gentlemen, we have run out of money – now we have to think.” Winston Churchill

OR A mouse trap? Free cheese and a challenge?

The Context

“The challenges we face converge, intertwine and often remain largely beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the “experts” don’t really know what’s going on and that as a species we’ve released forces that are neither managed nor manageable.” Thomas Homer-Dixon (Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009

Violence Prevention is a Shared Agenda and we must respond together with Science and Compassion.

The Context

Wicked Problem Rittel & Webber 1973 No clear definition of a wicked problem We can make wicked problems better or worse It’s not clear when wicked problems are fixed Every attempt to fix a wicked problem will change it The planner has no right to be wrong

The WHAT “Interpersonal violence – violence between individuals in families and communities – is a Public Health problem.” Etienne Krug Director Department of Injuries and Violence Prevention World health Organisation 2004

Death Conception Adoption of Health-risk Behaviors Social, Emotional, & Cognitive Impairment Early Death Adverse Childhood Experiences  Toxic Stress Disease, Disability and Social Problems ACEs are fundamental risk factors for disease and early death Consequences: long-term Consequences: long-term

What do Employers Want ? Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website, Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60% Literacy Using numbers Advanced IT or software Strategic management Basic computer literacy / using IT Written communication Other technical and practical skills Oral communication Team working Problem solving Customer handling Planning and organising

Sense of Coherence Your world is structured, predictable and explicable You have the internal resources to meet the demands The demands are seen as challenges worthy of investment and engagement Sir Harry Burns CMO 2011 (Aaron Antonovsky)

Violence – Contagious Process? Clustering Epidemic Wave Transmission Gary Slutkin Cure Violence

Clustering?

Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide Percentage of pupils performing well or very well at relevant level by deprivation. Shared Agenda

Thanks to Gary Slutkin for this slide

birth Early Years Framework GIRFEC Curriculum for Excellence YJ Framework Promoting Positive Outcomes (ASB) Achieving our Potential (Poverty) Equally Well (Health Inequalities) Road to Recovery (Drugs) Alcohol framework Purpose Government Economic Strategy National Outcomes SOAs NATIONAL POLICIES NATIONAL PERFORMANCE LIFE JOURNEY Valuing our Young People More Choices More Chances

Redemption An old idea that still works

Everyone can change

“We cannot live only for ourselves. A thousand fibers connect us with our fellow men; and among those fibers, as sympathetic threads, our actions run as causes, and they come back to us as effects.” Herman Melville

“An infinitely large number of infinitesimally small actions” Leo Tolstoy

Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide

Join us… On the web: On On Facebook: look for “vruscotland”