Understanding Disruptions from Emerging Demographic Trends Presentation to the Michigan Community College Association July 26, 2012 Kenneth Darga, State Demographer Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget

Major Topic Areas: Total Population Migration Patterns Age Distribution Births Economic Disruptions

Major Topic Areas: Total Population Migration Patterns Age Distribution Births Topic 1: Economic Disruptions

For more information on Michigan’s One-State Recession: Go to Look for the link: Rethinking Michigan’s One-State Recession (paper and video)

Topic 2: Total Population

Demographic Topic #1: Total Population “There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”

Demographic Topic #1: Total Population “There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”

Each recession has involved: More people leaving Fewer people arriving from other states and countries Lower birth rates An additional factor: People leaving for military service

Each recession has involved: More people leaving Fewer people arriving from other states and countries Lower birth rates An additional factor: People leaving for military service

Demographic Topic #1: Total Population “Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”

Demographic Topic #1: Total Population “Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”

Demographic Topic #1: Total Population “Michigan’s share of the nation’s population has decreased every year since 1970, leading to the loss of at least one congressional seat in each of the past four decades.”

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: 1.Westward movement of U.S. population 2.Revival of the Sunbelt 3.Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) 4.Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states 5.Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: 1.Westward movement of U.S. population 2.Revival of the Sunbelt 3.Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) 4.Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states 5.Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: 1.Westward movement of U.S. population 2.Revival of the Sunbelt 3.Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) 4.Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states 5.Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: 1.Westward movement of U.S. population 2.Revival of the Sunbelt 3.Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) 4.Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states 5.Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: 1.Westward movement of U.S. population 2.Revival of the Sunbelt 3.Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) 4.Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states 5.Impact of recessions.

Potential Future Disruptions: 1.Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? 2.Global warming? 3.Global Cooling? 4.Global uncertainty?

Potential Future Disruptions: 1.Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? 2.Global warming? 3.Global Cooling? 4.Global uncertainty?

Potential Future Disruptions: 1.Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? 2.Global warming? 3.Global Cooling? 4.Global uncertainty?

Potential Future Disruptions: 1.Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water? 2.Global warming? 3.Global Cooling? 4.Global uncertainty?

Topic 3: Migration

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern (e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) Age (prime labor force) Age 55+ International Immigration

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern (e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Age 55+ International Immigration v

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern (e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Not much net migration to other states Age 55+ International Immigration v

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern (e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Not much net migration to other states Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states International Immigration v

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern (e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Not much net migration to other states Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states International Immigration Moderate immigration of young adults and their children v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern (i.e ) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) Age (prime labor force) Age 55+ International Immigration v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern (i.e ) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Age 55+ International Immigration v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern (i.e ) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Considerable net migration to other states Age 55+ International Immigration v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern (i.e ) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Considerable net migration to other states Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years International Immigration v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern (i.e ) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Considerable net migration to other states Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years International Immigration Less immigration of young adults and their children v

Since the end of the One-State Recession: Fewer people leaving (for most age groups) More people moving in (for most age groups) Still losing population through migration, but not as much as before Exception: ages 60 through 74

Since the end of the One-State Recession: Fewer people leaving (for most age groups) More people moving in (for most age groups) Still losing population through migration, but not as much as before Exception: ages 60 through 74

Topic 4: Age Distribution

2010

2030

Perspectives on the Retirement Challenge:  There should be enough goods and services to go around (provided that productivity continues to increase at a normal rate and the economy continues to function in a normal manner).  The ratio of workers to retirees will be LOWER when the post-Boomer generation retires (unless fertility and immigration increase beyond replacement level)

Perspectives on the Retirement Challenge:  There should be enough goods and services to go around (provided that productivity continues to increase at a normal rate and the economy continues to function in a normal manner).  The ratio of workers to retirees will be LOWER when the post-Boomer generation retires (unless fertility and immigration increase beyond replacement level)

Before 2012: The people reaching full retirement age were from the small generations born during the Great Depression and World War II. Relatively few opportunities for advancement or new hiring were being opened up through retirement. After 2012: The number of people reaching full retirement age will gradually build up toward a peak around 2024.

Before 2012: The people reaching full retirement age were from the small generations born during the Great Depression and World War II. Relatively few opportunities for advancement or new hiring were being opened up through retirement. After 2012: The number of people reaching full retirement age will gradually build up toward a peak around 2024.

Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, % -- Bus Drivers 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers 50% -- Computer Operators 50% -- Millwrights 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics 41% -- Registered Nurses 40% -- Tool and Die Makers Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense: When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans. America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries. Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production. Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense: When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans. America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries. Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production. Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense: When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans. America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries. Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production. Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense: When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans. America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries. Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production. That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).

Topic 5: Birth Rates

2012

Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom: Births delayed during past recessions should take place. The relatively large number of people born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years. This is likely to be a weak echo of the Baby Boom.

Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom: Births delayed during past recessions should take place. The relatively large number of people born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years. This is likely to be a weak echo of the Baby Boom.

Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom: Births delayed during past recessions should take place. The relatively large number of people born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years. This is likely to be a weak echo of the Baby Boom.

Topic 1: Economic Disruptions  Recessions  The One-State Recession  Unemployment trends  Employment trends

Topic 2: Total Population  Historical fluctuations in growth  How bad was the past decade?  Long-term trend of declining population share  Disruptive factors (past and future)

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share: 1.Westward movement of U.S. population 2.Revival of the Sunbelt 3.Hispanic immigration into the U.S. (primarily into West and South) 4.Not having a big city that attracts a lot of migrants from other states 5.Impact of recessions.

Topic 3: Migration  Normal pattern vs. recent pattern for each age group  High migration rates for young people are a national pattern  Michigan’s problem is low in-migration rather than high out-migration

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern (e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Not much net migration to other states Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states International Immigration Moderate immigration of young adults and their children v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern (i.e ) CategoryTrend Children under 18Not much domestic migration Age (college and military age) High net migration to other states Age (prime labor force) Considerable net migration to other states Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years International Immigration Less immigration of young adults and their children v

Topic 4: Age Distribution (pt.1)  Historical population pyramids  The challenge of financing retirement as the ratio of workers to retirees decreases  It is not the size of the older generation that matters, but how many children, grandchildren, and immigrants have come afterwards.  Other countries with lower birthrates and fewer immigrants will have a much more serious retirement challenge than the U.S.  The ratio of workers to retirees is not projected to improve after the Baby Boom generation passes away.  We should still have enough food, goods, and services to go around.

Topic 4: Age Distribution (pt.2)  Impact of retirements on future employment opportunities  National defense implications of training workers for skilled production occupations

Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, % -- Bus Drivers 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers 50% -- Computer Operators 50% -- Millwrights 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics 41% -- Registered Nurses 40% -- Tool and Die Makers Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense: When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans. America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries. Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production. That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).

Topic 5: Birth Rates  Implications of declining birth rates for future enrollment  Prospects for a weak second echo of the Baby Boom

Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, % -- Bus Drivers 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers 50% -- Computer Operators 50% -- Millwrights 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics 41% -- Registered Nurses 40% -- Tool and Die Makers Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense: When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans. America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries. Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production. That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).

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