Human activities and global environmental change Diana Liverman or

NASA

Changing society Population – Growing but more slowly Energy – Growing but at lower carbon intensity Demand for land and food – Growing especially in intensity and per capita and with some slowing or reversals of forest loss Poverty↓ Inequality↑

The increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Steffen W et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369: ©2011 by The Royal Society

Population Global Population growth (1750 – 2010). Sources: US Census Bureau International Data Base World Bank – World Development Indicators Maddison The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. OECD.

Fertility rates are falling (children per woman)

World population growth is slowing Data from UNPOPIN, 2012

Total real GDP Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Changes in poverty 1981 to 2015 Chandy and Gertz, 2011, The changing state of global poverty from 2005 to2015, Brookings

Changes in inequality within countries

World Energy Consumption by Source, Based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent years

Decarbonization: Carbon dioxide emissions /GDP have fallen Data from IEA

Rise of renewables

Domesticated land Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997) National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Forests returning in some countries Lambin and Meyfroit, PNAS, 2011

Fertiliser consumption International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Growth in cereal production driven by yield not area – intensification not extensification Data from FAOSTAT 2012

Changes in nitrogen use since 2000 Data from FAOSTAT 2012

Geography of human influence

Changing geographies of GHG emissions

GHG emissions and income in the UK NEF 2011

Carbon is transferred in trade Emissions embodied in products (2004) Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds) Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also

Water use is also transferred through trade in agricultural and industrial products 1996–2005. Hoekstra A Y, Mekonnen M M PNAS. ©2012 by National Academy of Sciences

Take home messages Humanity dramatically increased its use of resources and pollution since 1950 There are some signs that some drivers are slowing or changing – Population growth is slowing and will level off – Energy and carbon intensity is declining – Agricultural intensification and other factors is slowing or reversing deforestation in some regions Poverty↓ inequality↑ Many people still struggle to meet basic needs and aspire to increase consumption. A smaller proportion are consuming too much, including carbon, water and other resources embodied in trade

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