National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Spring COPC Meeting Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director Silver Spring, MD May 4, 2010

2 Overview Define NCEP Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change -- Example of Multimodel Ensemble for Global Predictions Continued Interactions with DoD -- Navy Contributions to NAEFS -- AF Backup; Model Utilization FY10-11 Model Update Building Update Summary

3 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Mission and Vision Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operation Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

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EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed TPCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 5

6 NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

7 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models* Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Model Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* * Potential ensemble candidates

8 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans RTOFS/HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ Regional DA

Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability Transition to IBM Power 6 complete –Declared operational August 12, 2009 –69.7 trillion calculations/sec –Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 –4,992 processors –20 terabytes of memory –330 terabytes of disk space –1.7 billion observations/day –27.8 Million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Models made available to all NWS forecasters, media, private sector, public Web Access to NCEP Models by Month

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11 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models trend line

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Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications NUOPC –Incorporating FNMOC ensembles into NAEFS as initial capability for NUOPC (FNMOC/TOC/EMC/NCO) 14 Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

15 Multi Model Ensemble: Opportunity to Interact with the Navy through North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service –Elements: Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products from an arbitrary number of forecast systems Establish operational data transfer Application to operational products with shared software Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy Global ensemble products –NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) operational in NAEFS 20 members -16 days –CMC operational in NAEFS 20 members - 16 days –FNMOC experimental in NAEFS 16 members – 10 days April 7-8, 2010CSAB Spring 2010

16 Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS 2m Temperature X April 7-8, 2010 CSAB Spring 2010

17 Backup –AWC, SPC by 15 th Operational Weather Squadron at Scott Air Force Base –SWPC by 2 nd Weather Group at Offutt Air Force Base Test Beds –Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (ongoing) –WRF DTC (ongoing) –JCSDA (ongoing) Col. Mark Zettlemoyer, chair of Management Oversight Board COPC CONOPS –Shared processing; NCEP providing direct support to AF through GFS and for NA sector through WRF Model Development: Land Surface Model (NOAH) Support for Hurricane and Winter reconnaissance missions, used directly in Global Forecast System NUOPC – Tri-agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs for next generation model system NCEP’s Interaction with the Air Force

18 FY10 Model Implementations SREF - Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km - Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA HWRF -Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade -Code corrections, data assimilation, surface heat and momentum exchange and gravity wave drag upgrades GFS/GSI - Post consolidation - GFS code restructuring - New data types added to GSI RUC (early FY11) -Change to Rapid Refresh

GEFS - Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme RTOFS:HYCOM -Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes Global Multi-Grid Wave Model - Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output 19 FY10 Model Implementations

GFS - Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package RTMA - CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km - Shift AK RTMA Grid - Guam coverage AQM - Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI and Alaska - CONUS dust &/or smoke HYSPLIT -CONUS dust HI-Res Window - Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI 20 FY10 Model Implementations Surface to 20K ft Initial time 18Z April 20, hr36 hr48 hr HYSPLIT Volcanic Ash

Hurricane Wave Model (early FY11) -Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model Wave Ensemble (early FY11) - Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models - Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days NAEFS (early FY11) - Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles - Downscaling for Alaska RUC (early FY11) -Change to Rapid Refresh 21 FY11 Model Implementations Composite Reflectivity April 24, 2010 Severe Weather Outbreak in MS

22 Building Update NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction –Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC) –NESDIS Research and Satellite Services –OAR Air Resources Laboratory –40 Spaces for visiting scientists Approximately 270,000 ft 2 Includes space for over 800 employees/contractors/visiting –Five NCEP Centers –NESDIS research and satellite services –OAR Air Resources Laboratory

23 Building Update Construction halted (Dec 08) Developer files federal suit and goes bankrupt (Jul 08) Leaser identified (Fall 09) Awaiting resolution of federal suit (May-Jun 10) Continues to have major implications for achieving Strategic Goals and UCAR review recommendations Construction Restart Jul 10? Move Start Jul 11 ? Move CompleteDec 11?

24 Summary NCEP sustaining a collaborative approach to improving all forecast components from models to service centers. Depends on partnerships (COPC, Testbeds, private sector,…) –WRF; DTC; JCSDA; NUOPC… –ConOps –Backups –Communications and data sharing Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist –JCSDA; NUOPC; Ocean model transfer (global HYCOM) Priority Items: –Model implementations on new Power 6 –Tracking situation with new building –Tracking model performance: drop out team

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26 Current SREF HUR GDAS GFS analysis NAM analysis CFS RTOFS FIRE Air Quality RDAS GENS/NAEFS GFS NAM Rapid Refresh Data Processing Waves NCEP Production Suite % Hours Percentage of Capacity

27 NCEP Production Suite Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 CFS MFS WAV CFS & MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS HUR SREF Reforecast Hydro / NIDIS/FF NAM GDAS RDAS RTOFS Air Quality RDAS GDAS 100 % Percentage of Capacity Hours Rapid Refresh

Record Values 28

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31 AttributeOperational ConfigurationQ1FY11 Configuration Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

32 FY2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual SREF -Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km - Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA 10/27/09 HWRF - Structural changes only, no scientific upgrade 11/24/09 GFS/GSI - Post consolidation - GFS code restructuring - New data types added to GSI 12/15/09

33 FY2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual RTOFS - Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes 11/03/09 4/20/10 GEFS - Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme 20082/23/10 RUC - Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of forecast period 3/2/10 NAEFS - Downscaling for Alaska2 nd Qtr FY10 FY11

34 FY2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Global Multi-Grid Wave Model - Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output 5/11/10 Hurricane Wave Model - Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model 4 nd Qtr FY10

35 FY2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual GFS - Horizontal Resolution Increase to T574 (27 km) with upgraded physics package 6/22/10 HWRF - Couple with POM6/22/10 NAEFS - Inclusion of FNMOC Ensembles1 st Qtr FY11 RUC - Change to Rapid Refresh FY11

36 FY2010 Implementations ChangePlannedActual RTMA - CONUS upgrade to 2.5 km, AK 3 km - Shift AK RTMA Grid 4 th Qtr FY10 AQM - Extended CONUS AQFS (ozone) to HI - CONUS dust &/or smoke 4 th Qtr FY10 HYSPLIT - CONUS dust 4 th Qtr FY10 Wave Ensemble - Combine FNMOC & NCEP wave models - Extend NCEP wave model to 10 days 3 rd Qtr FY10 HI-Res Window - Upgrade WRF model, add Guam, turn off RSM for HI 4 th Qtr FY10