GROWING THE VISION: NWS CLIMATE SERVICES IN ALASKA Rick Thoman Climate Science and Services Manager Environmental and Scientific Services Division NWS.

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Presentation transcript:

GROWING THE VISION: NWS CLIMATE SERVICES IN ALASKA Rick Thoman Climate Science and Services Manager Environmental and Scientific Services Division NWS Alaska Region NOAA OCONUS Technical Interchange Meeting Anchorage, Alaska May 11, 2015

NWS Alaska Region and Climate Services Background: Alaska and what matters for climate services Climate Monitoring Climate Forecasts Climate Forecast-Monitoring Interface Climate and Remote Sensing The Future

Why climate in the Weather Service? What does “climate” mean in an NWS context? Academic climate: the statistics of weather Monitoring Events in context Forecasts beyond 7-10 days out a year Mean anomalies over some period (weeks, months, seasons) Probabilistic outlooks of patterns or events

NWS and Alaska Three Forecast Offices & one RFC for 582,000 miles² land & 1.2 million miles² marine Alaskans very sensitive to weather and climate Subsistence Energy Mining Fisheries Agriculture Tourism AFC AFG AJK APRFC

All of Alaska vulnerable & most of Alaska is “off road” Off-road communities need long lead times to prepare for big storms and even longer times to recover Supply chain vulnerable to disruption.

NWS Alaska Region Climate Services New as a distinct program Climate Science and Services Manager: spun up March 2013— previously one of the many responsibilities of the Chief Regional Scientist Priorities are partner driven—What does Alaska Region need to do to meet our operational office and partner climate needs? Only tangentially related to climate change Program Management for Region WFO/RFC support for Climate Focal Points: Climate data/products/services expert for office and CWA Tools, Information, Training Regional Monitoring Regional Situational Awareness and expertise Regional lead in the climate forecast domain Alaska-fy products services for internal guidance and external partners

Alaska Region Climate Services: Monitoring Current State of Climate Drivers Equatorial Convection SSTs Teleconnections Sea Ice Recent Climate Impacts Context Verification of climate forecasts

Regional Situational Awareness of Climate Scale Drivers and Outlooks MJO Teleconnection s Models

Climate Monitoring: UAF groups Work closely with Alaska Center for Climate Assessment & Policy (the Alaska RISA)

Climate Monitoring and Analysis with other NOAA Line Offices and Programs

Climate Forecasts: Support for NWS Offices, Programs and Partners Alaska POC to Climate Prediction Center Support for NWS Alaska offices and programs Routine: CPC associated products Week 1-2 Outlook Week 2 Outlook for Alaska Emergency Operations Monthly Climate Forecast Teleconference Climate Product Discussion Seasonal/As Needed River Ice Break-up (March-May; RFC, SEOC) Fire Weather (March-May and as needed through the warm season; GACC) Autumn Storminess (SEOC, Forecast Offices)--week 2+ Sea Ice (BOEM/BSEE)

Climate Forecasts: Week 1-2 to Seasonal Weekly (or more) Technical: expand, explain and Alaska-fy CPC 6-10/8- 14 day, monthly and seasonal outlooks Google shared site, Help operational offices make best use of CPC products

Climate Forecasts: Climate Product Discussion

Climate Monitoring: Social Media NWS Alaska Facebook and Twitter Climate-related posts often very popular

Climate Forecasts: Public NWS Alaska TV Desk (especially week 2) Social Media UAF/ACCAP Monthly Climate Forecast briefing (abridged and less technical version of NOAA internal)

Climate Forecasts: Sea Ice— An Emerging Need Active exploration since 2012 Industry making billion dollar decisions on oil and gas activities in Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) Department of Homeland Security: Coast Guard Sea ice forecasts for specific locations weeks to months in advance for planning and regulatory actions Demand certain to increase (industry, shipping, tourism)

Remote Sensing in Climate Services Remote sensing provides the backbone of much modern climate system monitoring and input to forecast tools Sea ice coverage Snow coverage SST SSH NDVI And with some work: Ocean currents Sea ice thickness Soil moisture

Digital forecasting requires digital tools Climate as a forecast tool So how about: Cloud climo Fog climo Aviation flight category climo Wind climo Inversion climo PRISM 1km mean temperature climo

Growing the Vision Climate Services in Alaska Region is new and growing Operational offices and partner-needs driven Activities WILL evolve as needs and support evolve Remote sensing and processing can deliver previously un- though-of, high res climatologies (=statistics of time series)

Thanks to: GINA and Eric Stevens for the invite NWS Alaska Region Leadership Jon Gottschalk and CPC ACCAP colleagues