NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects 1-2 March 2005 NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects Dr Paul Cornish Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

Old NATO 1949 -1989 Cold War Politico-Military Alliance Threat 1-2 March 2005 Old NATO 1949 -1989 Cold War Politico-Military Alliance Threat Article 5 Territorial Defence US Role US-European Strategic Relationship Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

Confused NATO 1989 -1999 Threat? Purpose? Scope? Politico-Military Alliance New Strategic Concept Enlargement and Open Door US Leadership NATO/EU Relations Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

New NATO? 1999 - Present Security Provider Multiple Threats NATO Capabilities Military Transformation Budget Driven NATO/EU Relationship: ‘Berlin Plus’ Enlargement and Outreach Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO Enlargement and Outreach 1-2 March 2005 NATO (26) Canada United States OSCE (55) Albania Andorra Armenia Azerbaijan Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia FRY [Serbia-Mont.] FYROM Georgia Liechtenstein Moldova Russia San Marino Switzerland Ukraine Bulgaria Iceland Norway Romania Turkey COUNCIL OF EUROPE (45) Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Rep. Slovenia EU (25) Belgium France Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain UK WEU (10) Belarus Holy See Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Rep. Monaco Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council is 26 NATO members, plus those marked in BLACK UNDERLINE. All these countries are also signatories of NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme. Every other country in the world is known as a NATO Contact Country (!). Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, Sweden NATO Mediterranean Dialogue (7) Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

NATO Threats, Drivers and Shocks 1-2 March 2005 NATO Threats, Drivers and Shocks Threats: Terrorism, WMD, ‘Rogue States’ etc. Drivers of the Global Strategic Environment Globalisation Asymmetric Warfare Demographic and Environmental Changes Failing States Radical Ideologies Unresolved Conflicts Shocks to NATO: 15 Years Global Response Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

NATO Initiatives and Concepts 1-2 March 2005 NATO Initiatives and Concepts Initiatives: Allied Command Transformation NATO Response Force Military Concept for Defence Against Terrorism Civil Emergency Planning Action Plan Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory NBC Event Response Team NBW Weapons Defence Centre NATO BW/CW Defence Stockpile Disease Surveillance System No comment – just list. Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

NATO Initiatives and Concepts Holistic Security: Political/Military/Civil/Economic Multidimensional Security: Conflict Prevention Crisis & Consequence Management Peacekeeping Support to Peacemaking Disaster Response Humanitarian Assistance Post-combat and Post-conflict Capability Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO The Transformation Agenda Intelligence Accountability Public Support Agility Interoperability Adaptable Force Structures Integrated Logistics Suitable for Networked Environment Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO Command and Control Leaner Structure: Operations Command Transformation Command Interoperability: Liaison – Deconfliction – Integration New Technologies and Concepts Effects-based Approach Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO The Effects-Based Approach An effects-based approach involves the comprehensive integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign effects which will achieve desired outcomes. This approach can be adopted at all levels of command and across the spectrum of conflict. NATO’s Strategic Commanders Strategic Vision: The Military Challenge 2004 (Draft) Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO Capability Programmes, Goals and Requirements Programmes: DCI – PCC Goals: Decision Superiority Coherent Effects Joint Deployment and Sustainment Requirements: Improved Intelligence and Information-Sharing Network-Enabled Capability Robust and Flexible CIS Foundation More Deployable and Adaptable Forces Improved Co-ordination and Co-operation Improved Post-Conflict Operations Interoperable Logistics Systems Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO Problems and Prospects Threat Article 5/Territorial Defence Transformation US Leadership NATO/EU Relations Franco/US Relations Russia New Strategic Concept? NATO = 26 Nations Outreach National Caveats Ends and Means European Defence Spending Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

1-2 March 2005 NATO Europe and US Defence Expenditure, and Defence Expenditure as % GDP (US $m constant 2000) Source: IISS Military Balance. Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

Three Options NATO Revived NATO-EU Transfer New Transatlantic Treaty Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish

NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects 1-2 March 2005 NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects Dr Paul Cornish Sofia 1-2 March 2005 Paul Cornish Paul Cornish