The Perfect Demographic Storm: Extending the Benefits of Higher Education to the Next Wave of Students MASFAA Conference November 15-17, 2006 Julie Shields-Rutyna Educational Manager, The College Board New England Regional Office Rob Callahan Northeast Regional Manager College Board Education Loan Program

Agenda Most recent trends Institutional Federal and state Demographics The Social Divide The Widening Gap Social Implications Future Work

Tuition and Fees: 10-Year Growth Projection $2,076 $5,132 $9,364 $20,082 $34,760 $0 $2,500 $5,000 $7,500 $10,000 $12,500 $15,000 $17,500 $20,000 $22,500 $25,000 $27,500 $30,000 $32,500 $35,000 $37, yr public4-yr public4-yr private $2,874 Institutional Trends

Distribution of Full-Time Undergraduates at Four-Year Institutions by Published Tuition and Fee Charges, Source: Annual Survey of Colleges, The College Board, New York, NY. Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2006 Institutional Trends

Tuition and Fees/ Median Income 16.9% 21.5% 26.1% 96.8% 84.0% 73.1% 47.3% 57.7% 72.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Est. 4 year Public tuition & fees as % median income black & Hispanic 4 year Private tuition & fees as % median income white Est. 4 year Private tuition & fees as % median income black & Hispanic 4 year Public tuition & fees as % median income white Institutional Trends

Average Published Tuition and Fee Charges in Constant (2006) Dollars, to (Enrollment-Weighted) Source: Tables 3a, 3b, 4a, and 4b, and data online (collegeboard.com/trends). Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2006 Institutional Trends

Average Published Tuition, Fee, Room, and Board (TFRB) Charges at Four-Year Institutions in Constant (2006) Dollars, to (Enrollment-Weighted) Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2006 Institutional Trends

Sample Average Undergraduate Budgets, (Enrollment-Weighted) Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2006 Institutional Trends

Inflation-Adjusted Changes in Tuition and Fees, Family Income, and Student Aid to and to Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, %14% From

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Average Aid Per Full-Time Equivalent Student in Constant (2005) Dollars, to Institutional Trends

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Estimated Student Aid by Source for Academic Year in Current Dollars (in Billions) Institutional & Federal Trends

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Growth of Stafford, PLUS, and Nonfederal (Private) Loan Dollars in Constant (2005) Dollars, to Federal Trends

Source: NPSAS: 1993, 1996, 2000, and 2004, Undergraduates; calculations by authors. Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Median Debt Levels of Undergraduate Degree Recipients Who Borrowed by Degree and Institution Type in Constant (2003) Dollars, to Federal Trends

Source: NPSAS: 2004, Undergraduates; calculations by authors. Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Distribution of Total Debt Levels of Degree Recipients, Federal Trends

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Federal Aid Funds by Type of Institution, Federal Trends

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Grants Versus Loans, Percent Share of Total Aid to Federal Trends

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Ten-Year Trend in Funds Used to Finance Postsecondary Education Expenses to Federal Trends

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Maximum Pell As a Percentage of Published Tuition, Fee, Room, and Board (TFRB) Charges at Public and Private Four-Year Colleges and Universities to Federal Trends

Source: Tables 2, 3, 8a, and 8b In Trends in Student Aid Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Number of Pell Grant Recipients to Federal Trends

Demographics: The Social Divide

Note: Enrollment rates correspond to the percentage of high school completers who are enrolled in college in October of the year of high school graduation. Family income quintiles for 2003: lowest quintile = $16,399 or less; second quintile = $16,400 ﾐ $31,099; third quintile = $31,100–$48,399; fourth quintile = $48,400–$78,799; and highest quintile = $78,800 and higher. Family Income and College Enrollment C o l l e g e E n r o l l m e n t R a t e s b y F a m i l y I n c o m e L e v e l s, Source: NCES, unpublished tabulation using data from the Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, 1982 ﾐ Demographics: The Social Divide

Source: The College Board, Education Pays, Second Update, 2006 College Enrollment Among Males and Females by Race/Ethnicity Ages 16–24, 2004 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, Table 13; calculations by authors. Demographics: The Social Divide

Socioeconomic Status, Math Test Scores, and Level of Education Demographics: The Social Divide

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Income Distribution of Families Within Private Colleges Grouped by Tuition and Fee Charges, Demographics: The Social Divide

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2006 Income Distribution of Families Within Public Two-Year and Four-Year Institutions, Demographics: The Social Divide

Minority Group Enrollment by Institution Type 63% 59% 57% 51% 42% 37% 41% 43% 49% 58% White Non-HispAsianBlack Non-HispAmerican IndianHispanic Four-YearTwo-Year Demographics: The Social Divide

Widening Gap: The Benefits Are Not Evenly Distributed

Possible conclusion What this means for our country: Total Expenditures on Postsecondary Education As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2003 Demographics: The Widening Gap

Demographic Changes Will Widen the Access Gap Demographic winds of change are blowing Next wave of high school graduates will look much different than today Number of high school graduates increasing Increases in underrepresented minorities Increases in some areas of country but not others Increased numbers of lower income students Rising tuition and fees make colleges appear unaffordable Demographics: The Widening Gap

Projected Number of Public High School Graduates to 2018 Source: WICHE/The College Board Demographics: The Widening Gap

Projected Number of High School Graduates by Ethnicity Source: WICHE/The College Board 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500, Non-PublicWhiteBlackAsianHispanicAmerican Indian Demographics: The Widening Gap

Number of High School Graduates, : By College Board Region Source: WICHE/The College Board 0 200, , , , New EnglandMiddle StatesMidwestSouthSouthwestWest Demographics: The Widening Gap

The Personal and Societal Benefits of Higher Education Most think of benefits of college education in personal terms Higher standard of living Wider opportunities Societal benefits fundamental to well-being of nation College Board publication, Education Pays, highlights both private and public benefits Social Impact of Education

Median Annual Earnings by Level of Education and Age: 2005 Source: The College Board, Education Pays, Second Update, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006, PINC-03. Social Impact of Education

Source: The College Board, Education Pays, Second Update, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006, PINC-03. Distribution of Annual Earnings by Level of Education, Ages 35–44, 2005 Social Impact of Education

Median Earnings by Race/Ethnicity and Education Level, 2003: Ages 25–34 Social Impact of Education

Source: The College Board, Education Pays, Second Update, 2006 Median Annual Earnings Relative to Earnings of High School Graduates, Males and Females Ages 25–34, 1975–2005 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), 2004, Table 14-1, NCES, 2006, Table 22-1 (based on U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey) and U.S. Census Bureau, PINC-03. Social Impact of Education

Source: CDC, 2004a Health Percentage of Mothers Age 20 and Older Who Smoked During Pregnancy, 1989–2002 Social Impact of Education

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004b, Table 1; U.S. Census Bureau, 2000; calculations by the authors. Voting Reported Voting Rates Over Time by Education Level Social Impact of Education

Source: The College Board, Education Pays, Second Update, 2006 Source: Education Longitudinal Study (ELS), 2002; calculations by authors. Based on parental reporting. Percentage of Parents Saving for College for Their Tenth-Grade Child by Income and Education Level of Parents 2002 Social Impact of Education

Implications of the Perfect Demographic Storm We need to remove barriers in the following areas: K-12 preparation Admission and financial aid policies and processes Retention If we succeed, we must find adequate funding to support the needs of all students. Future Work

What we know… (and what we can learn) Colleges should be thinking about ways to address these possible major changes in the student body on their campuses. College must be affordable. However, what does affordable mean? We can learn from looking at community colleges. What role can we play to assist community college students to transfer to 4 year colleges? We need to work together. Are there intra-institutional and/or intrastate initiatives that could serve both the educational community and high school graduates over the next decade? Future Work

Ongoing College Board Projects on Access and Demographics Trustee Task Force to develop strategies, broadly-defined, to remove barriers at all levels for students from low income families Washington Office program to consider whether new approaches to student aid might improve opportunities for college access and success html Future Work

Contact Info Julie Shields Rutyna Higher Education Manager The College Board ___________________ Rob Callahan Northeast Regional Manager College Board Education Loan Program