Norges Bank 11 Executive Board meeting 13 August 2008

Norges Bank 22 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Weighted median CPI-ATE 1) 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI Consumer prices 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2008 CPIXE 2) 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 2) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices

Norges Bank 3 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Central bank interest rates and forward rates Norway US Euro area 11 August 2008 Market after MPR 2/08 (25 June) Sweden UK

Norges Bank 4 Money market rates Market 11 August 2008 Market after MPR 2/08 (25 June) MPR 2/08 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 5 Source: Bloomberg JPMorgan Chase iTraxx Europe index Citigroup UBS Merrill Lynch CDS prices for US and European companies and selected banks. Basis points. 1 July 2007 – 11 August 2008

Norges Bank 6 Equities Indices. 1 July 2007 = 100 Source: Thomson Reuters US, S&P 500 Emerging markets Norway, OSEBX Europe, Stoxx Japan, Topix 25 June

Norges Bank 7 Difference between three-month money market rates and expected key rates 1) Historic and ahead. Percentage points. US Euro area UK Norway 1) The expected key rate is measured by the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS). For Norway, the estimates are based on key policy rate expectations in the market. Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 8 OECD leading indicators Index. Historic average = 100. January 1995 – June 2008 Sources: Thomson Reuters / OECD Euro area OECD

Norges Bank 9 Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel Futures prices (broken lines) 1) In USD Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank (MPR 1/08) International commodity prices 1) Index. Week = 100 Week – week Food Industrials All items Metals Non-food agriculturals

Norges Bank 10 Rise in consumer prices abroad 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2008 UK Euro area US Japan Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters Russia Brazil India 1) China 1) Wholesale prices

Norges Bank 11 US Inflation and long-term inflation expectations Monthly figures. Per cent. January 2005 – July ) CPI CPI excl food and energy 10-year inflation expectations: swaps 10-year inflation expectations: ”break-even” (Real interest rate bonds) 5-10-year inflation expectations: Survey (University of Michigan) Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters 1) CPI for January 2005 – June 2008

Norges Bank 12 US Inflation and implicit inflation expectations 1) Monthly figures. Per cent. January 2005 – July ) CPI CPI excl food and energy Implicit five-year inflation expectations in five years Implicit one-year inflation expectations in one year Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters 1) Implicit one-year (five-year) inflation expectations in one year (five years) can be interpreted as expected one-year (five-year) inflation in one year (five years). Inflation expectations are based on inflation swaps from Bloomberg. 2) CPI for January 2005 – June 2008

Norges Bank 13 Euro area Inflation and implicit inflation expectations 1) Monthly figures. Per cent. January 2005 – July ) CPI Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters Implicit one-year inflation expectations in one year Implicit five-year inflation expectations in five years CPI excl food and energy 1) Implicit one-year (five-year) inflation expectations in one year (five years) can be interpreted as expected one-year (five-year) inflation in one year (five years). Inflation expectations are based on inflation swaps from Bloomberg. 2) CPI for January 2005 – June 2008

Norges Bank 14 US 2- and 10-year inflation expectations Per cent. Daily figures. 2 January 2008 – 8 August year inflation expectations 10-year inflation expectations Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters

Norges Bank 15 Mean January – June ) Relative consumer prices Relative wage costs Real exchange rate Deviation from mean. Per cent – 2007 Average ”oil age” 1) Data for 2008 based on observations to 8 August Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 16 Import and export prices 4-quarter change. Per cent Q1 – 2008 Q2 Traditional imports Traditional exports Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 17 Source: Thomson Reuters Manufacturing production index Seasonally adjusted volume index. 3-month moving average. January 2002 – June 2008 Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumer goods Trend 3-month moving average

Norges Bank 18 Bottle-necks in production Business tendency survey. Per cent Q4 – 2008 Q2 Labour supply (right-hand scale) Demand and competition (left-hand scale) Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 19 Employment (LFS) In 1000s of persons. Seasonally adjusted. June 2006 – May 2008 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 20 Annualised change in 3-month moving average House prices Monthly figures. January 1998 – July month change Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, ECON Pöyry and FINN.no

Norges Bank 21 Building starts Area (1000 m 2 ). Trend. January 2002 – May 2008 Other buildings Dwellings Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 22 Sources: Statistics Norway Published in April Published in May Index of commodity consumption Volume. Seasonally adjusted. January 2005 – May 2009

Norges Bank 23 Household net lending Total past four quarters. In billions of NOK Q1 – 2008 Q1 National accounts Financial sector accounts (FINSE) National accounts, excluding reinvested dividends Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 24 Mortgage rate 2) Money market rate Key policy rate, money market rate 1) and bank lending rate on new loans 2) In per cent. 3 May 2007 – 11 August 2008 Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS and Norges Bank 1) 3-month NIBOR. 2) Interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK 1 million within 60% of purchase price with floating interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share. Key policy rate

Norges Bank 25 Key policy rate Source: Norges Bank Strategy interval 1/05 3/04 2/05 3/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 2/07 1/07 3/07 MPR 2/08 1/08 2/08