1 The Environmental Profile of Norwegian Households - Imported Commodities Edgar Hertwich 1, Kristin Erlandsen 2, Jørgen Aasness 2, Knut Sørensen 2, Klaus Hubacek 3 1 IIASA, 2 Statistics Norway, 3 University of Leeds ISIE meeting Ann Arbor, Mi, USA

2 Layout Sustainable consumption: A framework for action Measuring the impacts of consumption: Input-output and hybrid analysis Pollution elsewhere: endogenous assessment of imported commodities The emissions intensities of China, Japan and Norway – A comparison Where does your product come from: The need for a wider analytic perspective

3 Sustainable consumption: Why and How? Citizens as consumers: Consumer and investor activism (and reactions) have gained importance: Nike, Shell, mad cow Consume with a clear conscience: organic, fair- trade, clean-cloth, eco-label, solar, hybrid Research should empower people to choose in accordance with their conscience: Provide information, understanding, feedback

4 Sustainable consumption: Why and How? Sustainable consumption policy: Consumption as part of the overall sustainability strategy: Modeling options, tracking progress Setting framework conditions for sustainable consumption: Infrastructure, taxes, services, procurement Enabling and encouraging consumer action: awareness raising, providing info Supporting experiments in sustainable consumption (social innovation)

5 Sustainable consumption: Why and How? Consumption and Production: Understanding consumer behavior and use-phase environmental effects – Product design Encouraging the purchase of green products Optimizing at the right point, taking advantage of synergies Common interest in human aspects (product design and marketing)

6 materials Sustainable Production Sustainable Consumption Sustainability of products and services Understanding of User Behavior, Needs Goods Information Production-consumption interaction

7 Optimise Life-cycle performance materials Sustainable Production Sustainable Consumption Sustainability of products and services Understanding of User Behavior, Needs Goods Information Production-consumption interaction

8 A framework for action 1. A strategy for sustainability: Objectives; Evaluation, modeling, tracking progress; Consumption as part of a larger agenda 2. Specific measures, actions and initiatives to be taken by different actors 3. Consistent evaluation of actions and policy measures, feedback to actors Environmental mechanisms, health and ecosystem effect Production systems and product life-cycles Individual behavior and social mechanisms

9 Modeling the environmental pressures and progress in reducing them 1. Develop a strategy and track progress: macro- and meso-scale analysis; Duchin – Social accounting framework Focus on issue identification, consumer activities, general learning 2. Measure the impact of specific goods Wilting & Vringer, hybrid & LCA Recommendations of specific actions: eco- labeling, green procurement

10 Structure of an I-O Table

11 Direct GHG emissions of Norwegian industry, from NAMEA.

12 Direct industry emissions allocated to final demand categories.

13 Multiplier analysis Emissions from production, incl. domestic intermediate inputs Emissions from production, incl. domestic intermediate inputs and investment Emissions from production, including domestic and foreign intermediate inputs Emissions, incl. from domestic and foreign intermediate inputs and investment

14 Treating imports as domestically produced Standard approach: assume that imports are produced with the same emissions factors and the same production functions as domestic products. Chilean apples = Norwegian apples Kenyan pineapples = Norwegian apples

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16 Indirect emissions assuming domestic emissions intensities

17 Indirect + direct emissions caused by Norwegian households

18 Emissions intensity of imports: using real numbers Ideal approach: build a multinational I/O model Approximation: Use domestic multipiers (M2, M4) of other countries Japan: 3EID (Nansai, Moriguchi, Tohno) China: IIASA work (Hubacek, TAP project)

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20 GHG emissions intensity of 3 trading partners compared to NO

21 Conclusions The industry structure and emissions factors of Norway, Japan and China differ significantly. We do not know whether increasing globalization increases or decreases emissions No SC purchase recommendations among product categories are possible as long as they involve imported products. Do these conclusions hold for larger, ‘closed’ economies, such as the United States?