Avian Influenza Modeling By: John Fujita Research Institution: Pacific Disaster Center Research Supervisor: Mike Napier Home Institution: University of Hawaii, Manoa

Background on Avian Influenza Family orthomyxoviradae Relative of common flu Most prevalent in birds Spread –Direct contact –Fecal matter –nasal and ocular discharges Symptoms –Pneumonia, eye infections, pancreatic damage, and severe respiratory diseases

Economic Impact 1983–1984 outbreak of Highly Pathogenic AI in the USA Destruction of more than 17 million birds $63 million in Federal funds additional $350 million in increased consumer costs

Historic Pandemics Spanish Flu –Worst Pandemic in History –50 Million Deaths –Over 500,000 dead in US Asian Flu –70,000 deaths in US Hong Kong Flu –34,000 deaths in US

Potential Impact of a Pandemic 20-50% of the world human population infected 250 million deaths "We at WHO [the World Health Organization] believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic…" Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO's Western Pacific Regional Director, 23 February 2005

Cycle of Avian Influenza Shore birds Pandemic disease cycle Natural avian influenza cycle Mammals (primarily swine) Waterfowl Domestic birds Humans Source from: epi/htopics/Avian_Influenza.ppt

Recent Breakouts 108 confirmed human case studies Infection clusters First-time infection of multiple species Death rate going down

My Contributions Human case studies (at provincial level) –World Health Organization ~2004 Animal case studies (at least district level) –OIE ~1997 GIS data layers –Poultry and population density –Migratory bird flyways –Airline routes –Geospatial data Rainfall, elevation, temperature, humidity, hydrology, wind direction

Conclusion MORE FUNDING for PDC Saving of millions of lives

Future of Project Develop knowledge base and gather raw data- John Fujita and Mike Napier Preliminary Model and Analysis – John Fujita and Mike Napier Develop contacts and obtain complete data – Allen Clark Complete Model and Analysis – Mike Napier Draw insightful conclusions- Mike Napier

Acknowledgements Center for Adaptive Optics –Malika Bell –Lisa Hunter –Liz Espinoza National Science Foundation Maui Economic Development Board –Isla Yap –Leslie Willkins Maui Community College –Mark Hoffman

BIG MAHOLOS Pacific Disaster Center –Mike Napier This project is supported by the National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for Adaptive Optics, managed by the University of California at Santa Cruz under cooperative agreement No. AST

Any Questions?

Preliminary Model