Areas of Operational R&D for GLAM Enhancements

Development of EO-based Yield Forecasting RMSE= 10% R= 0.94 Y=0.9934X Kansas Estimates within 8%, 6 weeks prior to harvest Ukraine Estimates within 10%, 6 weeks prior to harvest Becker-Reshef I, Vermote E, Lindeman M, Justice C In Remote Sensing of Environment, 114, 1312–1323.

MODIS data for corn area indicator mapping – per state model NASS AWiFS CDL 2008 cornMODIS 2008 corn Annual Within Season Cropland Area Indicators CDL % MODIS % Single State Corn Single Year– 2008 – 5km R-Squared Hansen et al.

Top-of-atmosphere TOA Surface Reflectance Next Steps for GLAM: Transferring Atmospheric correction algorithm from MODIS to Landsat domain Integration of Landsat and preparation for LDCM System preparation for VIIRS continuity Continued R&D on yield forecasting, area indicators, crop mapping

Currently multiple operational agricultural monitoring systems – operate independently in a poorly coordinated way and without standardized methods Increasing synergies, and improving satellite and in-situ observations would enhance our ability to effectively monitor agriculture worldwide Need for International Collaboration & Coordination: The Programmatic Context GEO

Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring Task: AG Goals: Bring the international agricultural monitoring community together to build a system of systems (GEOSS) for effective global agricultural monitoring Building on existing assets and the systems that are in place Promoting data sharing Promoting methods/modeling sharing and inter-comparisons leading to best practices guidelines Assessing current state of the art and articulating gaps, requirements and needs GEO Plenary, Beijing. November 2010

The GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring (Task: AG-07-03) Task Co-Leads: Chris Justice, University of Maryland, USA Wu Bingfang, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, CAS, Beijing, China Olivier Leo, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy Derrick Williams, USDA FAS, USA Task Executive Director: Jai Singh Parihar, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), India JECAM Sub-task Lead: Ian Jarvis, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada PAY Sub-task: Lead Inbal Becker-Reshef UMD, Meng Jihua CAS GEO Secretariat PoC: Joao Soares, GEO Secretariat, Geneva CEOS GEO Agriculture POC:Prasad Thenkabail, USGS, USA

Agricultural Monitoring Systems Contributing to the GEO Community of Practice Most countries have a national agricultural monitoring system Similar data needs, need for coordination and cooperation in sharing of data and methods inter-comparison

GIEWS- Global Information and Early Warning System (UN-FAO) Provides global information on food supply and demand provides early warnings of impending food crises in individual countries

MARS-FOOD Crop Monitoring System European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC) Crop Assessment Process Data collection & retrieval Earth Observation Data Meteorological Data Agronomic Database WEB Information European Media Monitor Processing & Analysis C-NDVI Crop GMS WS IndexDissemination - EU Delegations - National EW Agencies - Int. Institutions (FAO, …) Bulletin Dissemination Data DisseminationReporting

GEO Agricultural Monitoring Task Near Term Initiatives Initiative 1 : Joint Experiments on Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) Initiative 2 : A Multi-source Production, Acreage and Yield (PAY) database Initiative 3 : Coordinated Data Initiatives for Global Agricultural Monitoring (CDIGAM) Initiative 4 : GLAMSS Thematic Workshop Series (GTWS). Initiative 5 : Agricultural Land Use and Climate Change.

JECAM: Joint Experiments on Crop Assessment and Monitoring GOAL: facilitate the inter-comparison of monitoring and modeling methods, product accuracy assessments, data fusion and product integration, for agricultural monitoring setting up a network of regional experiments in cropland pilot sites around the world Ongoing discussion for a site in Ukraine to be led by NASU (National Space Agency of Ukraine) Time series datasets from a variety of earth observing satellites and in-situ data sources will be acquired for each of the sites synthesis of the results from JECAM will enable: – development of international standards for monitoring and reporting protocols – a convergence of the approaches to define best practices for different agricultural systems – identify requirements for future EO systems for agricultural monitoring.

Initial Countries participating in the JECAM Initiative Subtask led by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada JECAM Website USA Paraguay JECAM activities are being undertaken at a series of study sites which represent the world’s main cropping systems and agricultural practices. 12 sites currently exist. Additional sites will be added to meet science objectives and ensure all major crop systems are addressed. At a joint CEOS-JECAM meeting in Ottawa in Sept 2011 the space agencies and commercial providers pledged support for JECAM, JECAM was afforded a high priority by all data providers

The PAY- a Production, Acreage, Yield multi-source online database initiative Goal: provide a platform for comparisons between crop statistics generated by different agencies, through a common centralized online database of Production, Area, and Yield (PAY) – enable identification of agreements and disagreements in national level crop statistics to guide methods development and best practices guidelines Potential interface with G20 AMIS Initiative

Example query for results comparing yields from the different agencies: Lines in blue indicate reported statistics, white indicate estimates

Graphing functionality: Inter-comparison of Crop Statistics Squares indicate official statistics Circles indicate in-season estimates

GLAMSS Thematic Workshop Series (GTWS) April 2011, ISRSE, Sydney: Workshop on Rangelands and Pasture Monitoring May 2011, Curtiba Brazil (SBSR): JECAM South America Workshop June 2011, Vienna Austria: Agricultural Land Cover Mapping Workshop September 2011, Nairobi Kenya: JRC CRAM workshop October 2012, China: Workshop on Agricultural Water Availability Brussels 2010 – AGRISAT Workshop Beijing 2009 – System of Systems Components Kananaskis SAR to support Agriculture

Coordinated Data Initiatives for Global Agricultural Monitoring (CDIGAM) – Ensure the on-going, frequent and timely acquisition, accessibility of satellite data during crop growing season and the continuity of those observations necessary for agricultural monitoring – Compile the best available information on agricultural areas, crop calendars and cropping systems – define a global acquisition strategy – To fill the gaps in the current in-situ observations – Near Term CoP Contributions : -Dynamic Global Croplands Likelihood Map (250m) -Near Real Time data from MODIS (NASA LANCE System) -Compilation of Enhanced Global Crop Calendars (ISRO) -NASA VIIRS data -SR landsat data

Defourny 2010 Black - Global Operational Grey – Regionally Implemented White – Research / Local Domain Crop Monitoring and Famine Early Warning EO System Schematic

GEO Agriculture Monitoring Community of Practice Website:

GEO Ag 0703 CoP Brochure

G20 GEO-GLAM Initiative G20 Ministers adopted the GEO GLAM proposal in June 2011 Four components are envisioned for GEO-GLAM: 1.Improving Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems with a focus on : a) Large Producer/Exporter Countries and b) Countries at Risk 2Enhancing National and Regional Capacity for Agricultural Monitoring and the timely dissemination of monitoring results 3Improving availability, access to, timeliness and use of EO data for agricultural monitoring (Satellite, In-situ and EO parameterized Models) 4Undertaking innovative Research and Development in support of Operational Monitoring Systems

GEO-GLAM Components Coordinated Satellite and In- Situ Earth Observations Strengthening National Capacity for Agricultural Monitoring Earth Observations Satellite / Ground Data / Models Operational Research and Development Techniques/Methods/Best Practices Improved Reporting and Information and Timely Dissemination Systems Condition/Area/ Yield / Statistics FAO STAT AMIS Public MONITORING SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS Meteorological Expertise and Info Agricultural Expertise (GEO CoP+) Enhancing Global Agricultural Monitoring Systems 1 Monitoring Countries and Regions at Risk (EWS) 2 3 Govts

Phased Implementation Initial Planning Phase (June ) Phase 1 ( ) Focus on: i)Coordination of Earth Observations ii)Cereal Crops for Major Producer/Exporter Countries iii)Agricultural food supply for Countries at Risk (Karamoja project) iv)National Capacity Building for monitoring primary national crops Phase 2 ( ) Expanding program focus e.g. to include Rangeland Productivity Monitoring, Climate Change Adaptation

Summary Changing climate, competing demands for agricultural land, changing diets and changing energy and food prices will mean more volatility in food supply and demand Timely agricultural monitoring is becoming increasingly important and ensuring continuity and coordination of Earth observations is fundamental International community will continue to partner – For ensuring enhancements and continuity of effective global monitoring and information dissemination The G20 GEO-GLAM initiative WILL ADDRESS A CRITICAL NEED FOR IMPROVED INFORMATION FOR GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY and market stability THE TASK OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL MONITORING IS TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE AND ASSUMING THAT WE HAVE THE POLITICAL WILL FROM THE G20 COUNTRIES AND INTERNATIONALFUNDING COMMITMENT IT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED. THE EFFORT IS TOO LARGE AND IMPORTANT FOR ANY ONE COUNTRY TO IMPLEMENT AND THE INTERNATIONAL SATELLITE ASSETS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY OBSERVATION FREQUENCY OF COVERAGE AND A COMMON POLICY OF FREE AND OPEN DATA (AS ADOPTED BY THE US) WILL BE NEEDED INTERNATIONALLY.