By Ann Gordon Deputy Chief Meteorologist National Meteorological Service Belize

1. Setting the Context: Most recent projections for Caribbean Region -similar activities occurring in other SIDS region 2. The need for research on impacts of climate change on different parts of the world - more focused research on regional impacts 3. The need to strengthen regional models 4. Strengthening Science-Policy Dialogue in Developing Countries

 Doubling in frequency of hurricanes in strongest categories 4 and 5 by 2100, particularly in Northern Caribbean, despite overall decrease in frequency of average tropical cyclones  Recent satellite observations reveal acceleration of mass loss from polar ice caps. Continuing this trend would imply up to 1 m SLR by 2100  Increasing CO 2 concentration acidifying the world oceans: ◦ Under current pledges: -By 2030s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 450 ppm CO 2, coral reefs may dissolve -By 2050s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 550 ppm CO 2, coral may stop growing ◦ Below 350 ppm CO 2 appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs ◦ CO 2 at present 386 ppm and rising at 2ppm/year

 Increasing CO 2 concentration acidifying the world oceans: ◦ Under a Copenhagen Accord outcomes with current targets, -By 2030s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 450 ppm CO 2, coral reefs may dissolve -By 2050s, GHG concentration is expected to be at 550 ppm CO 2, coral may stop growing ◦ Below 350 ppm CO 2 appears to be ‘safe’ for reefs ◦ CO 2 at present 386 ppm and rising at 2ppm/year

 Models show warming trend continues reaching by 2080’s a further increase of between 1 and 5 degrees C.  Greater Warming in the NW Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, Belize) than in E Caribbean.  Greater warming in JJA than in cooler traditionally drier earlier months DJF  Drier Caribbean basin in annual total by 2080’s  Similar scenarios being developed in other SIDs region- same level of support needed

 Impacts of climate change on different sectors in the region given that climate, climate change and vulnerabilities differ by regions, also some sectors are more sensitive than others  Ice sheets and Sea Level Rise (SLR) with a focus on regional distribution on sea level rise  The impacts of a 1.5 ⁰ C, 2 ⁰ C and 3 ⁰ C temperature rise on sea level rise -need for scenarios of SLR to better understand adaptation issues

 The impacts of a 1.5 ⁰ C, 2 ⁰ C and 3 ⁰ C temperature rise on marine and terrestrial life in the region to better estimate thresholds.  The Physical and Biological impacts of Sea Level Rise: focus on ecosystems and ecological processes.  Impacts of Ocean acidification and biogeochemical processes on marine life

 Integrated assessments of climate change impacts and responses, for example: increase in SST will affect coral reefs, sea grass beds, mangroves, etc.  Observed and projected economic impacts of climate change  The ‘human side’ of the implications of climate change, including, human security

 Given improved spatial resolution of climate projections, integrated assessments of potential damage to society (economy, health etc.) are urgently needed to estimate adaptation needs  Planning, costing, and best practices for national adaptation strategies and plans in different sectors  Research on climate finance on how best to secure adequate and accessible finance sources  Tools and methods for assessment and decision- making related to adaptation implementation

 Significant advances made, however, much work needs to be done to reduce model biases through better representation of physical processes and higher spatial resolution  Regional climate modeling of climate change scenarios needs to be improved:  to pick up smaller scale phenomenon and reduce uncertainties  to analyse future changes in weather extremes such as tropical cyclones.

Strengthening Science-Policy Dialogue in developing countries and between Regions  Develop a mechanism for sharing best practices so that we can learn from each others experiences.