Land Use & Population Growth in Belize, Central America Modeling Future Impacts on Ecosystems ~Eve Robinson, Dept. of Marine Science

Why Belize? Thesis Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve Copepod & Reef Blenny Unique environments Biological diversity Recent development Tourism

Belize Caribbean coast of Central America Mountainous region and extensive coastline 6 districts

Belize Caribbean coast of Central America Mountainous region and extensive coastline 6 districts

Ecosystems Marine Second largest barrier reef in the World Home to rare species High biodiversity Terrestrial Protected Areas

Ecosystems Marine Terrestrial 93% under forest cover Mangroves Tropical rain forests Protected Areas

Ecosystems Marine Terrestrial Protected Areas Approx. 47% available land Encompasses breeding grounds, marine reserves, forest reserves, and sanctuaries

Protected Areas

Project Plan Land Use Urban Agriculture Population estimates Historical data Exponential growth Model Builder Relate land km 2 /person Estimate land use increase from population increase

Project Plan Land Use per District Population per District Land (km 2 ) per capita Population Increase N t = N 0 e rt Land Use Increase

Land Use.e00 files Drainage Roads Cities Land Use Import errors

Land Use.e00 files Drainage Roads Cities Land Use Import errors

Population Evenly distributed between urban & rural areas Proportional growth in most districts Estimation by district Year 2004

Population Population growth by exponential equation Growth rate = 2.39% Double the current population in less than 30 years

Progress Population estimates & growth Land use files ArcGIS compatible Implications of growth on protected habitats Urban/agricultural encroachment Habitat loss Importance of modeling