1 North American Drought Briefing for Nov 2011 and Sep_Nov 2011 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA

2 Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, S. Shukla, Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur, John Feldt Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS & NASA

3 P anomalies over the United States High lights: Nov 2011 Dryness over the Gulf states, Minnesota and Wisconsin continues. Oregon and Northern California were dry Heavy Rainfall over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Rainfall over Oklahoma, Arkasas and Texas relieved drought

4 Dry period in JASNov rainfall relieves drought Area: W,28-35N

5 SPI Rainfall in Nov improved dry conditions over Texas,OK and that shows in the SPI3. spi6 and SPI12 show severe drought conditions over Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico Drought over the Southeast and along the Gulf continues Drought over Minn, Ill and Wisconsin has worsened  The wetness over the Northeast and the Ohio Valley has continued for 3 months  Pacific northwest ??? D3 D2 D1

6 Streamflow percentile (USGS) There are similarities between the SPI and streamflow: Dry :Southern Plains, Southeast and the Gulf States OK, AR and Kansas showed improvement Wet: Wetness over the Northeast and Dakotas. Oct Nov Oct Nov

: 7 RUNOFF 3-mo NCEP/EMC/NLDAS SRI3 U Washington Runoff shows improvement of drought over the Southern Plains. drought worsens over Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin Drought continues over the Southeast EMC/NCEP

8 Multi model SM information EMC U Washington Wetness over the Northeast and the Ohio Valley Dryness over the Southern Plains and the Northern Plains, the Southeast and the Gulf States. EMC/NCEP

Keetch-Byram Drought index 9 Fire over California and Texas

10 Drought monitor Dry conditions continue over the Southern Plains, NM, AZ and the Southeast Some improvement over OK and Arkansas and Louisiana Drought continues develop over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ill

11 Temperature October 2011 Temperature Warm over the eastern U.S.

SSTA La Nina strengthens. SSTAs the central Pacific are less than -1C Positive SSTAs in the North Pacific and the Indian Ocean Warm SSTAs in the North Atlantic is weakening

13 OLRA Positive OLRAS (suppressed convection) in the central Pacific consistent with cold ENSO The streamfunction anomaly shows the couplet straddling the Equator and a wavetrain to North America

14 Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Time Mar Jun Ensemble mean GFS Positive OLRA associated with ENSO dominates over the central Pacific. Regular MJO since Oct Cold ENSO ENSO

15 Tropics: La Nina is on and will last through summer A negative PDO persists to winter Atlantic SSTAs are normal SSTA forecasts Update: Dec 5

16 T and P fcsts for DJF 2011 Pr precip Temp Cold ENSO impact

17 SPI forecasts based on CFSv2 IC Dec 5 and 6 Drought over the Southern Plains will continue for another season, Drought is developing over the North Plains and the Pacific Northwest Some improvement over the Southeast

SPI forecasts based on CFSv From fcst based on Nov ICs verification It captures dryness over the Southern Plains and The Southeast, but it misses the dryness over Minnesota, Wisconsin

19 1mo 2mo U Washington IC= mo SM 2moRo 1mo 1mo 2mo

20 SM forecasts made one month ago Verification for Nov 2011 Two month ago

EMC/Princeton sm fcsts 21 Ics; Dec 2011

EMC/Princeton fcsts 22 Fcst made in Nov 2011 Verification

23 seasonal Drought outlook Need to update This month Last month

24 Conclusions Ocean conditions : La Nina is on and positive SSTAs over the North Pacific with cold SSTAs along the west coast Current conditions: Dry: rainfall brought some relieve over Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas but drought over the Southern Plains continues Drought continues to develop over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois Drought of the Southeast shows some improvement Wet: Northeast and Ohio Valley

Prediction La Nina Cold ENSO continues through winter Drought Drought over the Southern Plains will continue for another season. SPI, UW and EMC all show the strengthening of drought over the Northern Plains over Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. Weakening of drought over the Southeast Pacific Northwest: models disagree so we need to carefully monitor 25

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year We would like to thank you for your support Your suggestions make the briefing better. Agenda for the next year: Make seasonal soil moisture forecasts based on the CFSv2 operational Verify the forecasts objectively 26