The 2008 Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determined Who Won

The 2008 Presidential Primaries: Or, How Richard J. Daley nominated Obama and McCain

How it used to work National nominating conventions Selection of delegates controlled by party officials Many / most delegates uncommitted

Example Kennedy vs. Nixon To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win Entered West Virginia primary election “Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Before 1972 Most states did not have public primary or caucus In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters By % selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

Today Primaries or Caucuses Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate). Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

The Demise of Nominating Conventions Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes) Gave “too much” control to party leaders Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Chicago, 1968 Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4th year: Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968 New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 McCarthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but.... RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party

Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 Vice President HHH says he’ll run Primaries & Delegates prior to convention: RFK won delegates McCarthy won delegates HHH didn't run 561 delegates

Chicago 1968 RFK assassinated June 1968 Convention in August: video here removed

Chicago, 1968 Democratic Convention Vote: HHH1759 McCarthy 601 McGovern 146 Philips 67 Moore 17

After Chicago Democrats split, lose to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’ challenged by McCarthy, McGovern Reform commission established State laws changed

Post 1968 Reforms New Nomination Rules: most delegates must be selected by voters but how? caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Post 1968 reforms What is a political party? voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Since 1972 National parties kept tinkering with rules: how award state’s delegates? winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS? who can participate only registered partisans? independents what schedule, when start? March, then February, then January...

The Carter Model, 1976 outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000 The Mondale/Clinton Model, 1984 Super-delegates (PLEOs) from 75% voter selected to 54% Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

Frontloading 1984IA Feb 20NH Feb 28 50% selected by May 20th 1988IA Feb 8NH Feb IA Feb 10NH Feb IA Feb 12NH Feb IA Jan 24NH Feb IA Jan 19NH Jan IA Jan 3NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9th

1976: 12 weeks to complete 50% 2008: 4 weeks to complete 50%

Differences Dems vs. Republicans Schedules Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun Proportionality A Democratic thing; GOP winner take all Super Delegates A Democratic thing Republicans more predictable Democrats = chaos