American Government and Politics Today Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Political Socialization

Defining Public Opinion Public opinion is defined as what the public thinks about a particular set of issues at any point in time. Public opinion is defined as what the public thinks about a particular set of issues at any point in time. Consensus: People (for the most part) agree on an issue. Consensus: People (for the most part) agree on an issue. Divisive Opinion: People do not agree. Divisive Opinion: People do not agree.

Political Socialization The process by which personal and other background traits influence one’s views about politics. The process by which personal and other background traits influence one’s views about politics. Sources of Political Socialization Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment The Family and the Social Environment Traced through two factors: Traced through two factors: Communication- what is said Communication- what is said Receptivity- tied to parental approval Receptivity- tied to parental approval A study conducted of high school seniors found that 91% knew their parents presidential preference, 71% knew party affiliation and 9% opposed their parents. A study conducted of high school seniors found that 91% knew their parents presidential preference, 71% knew party affiliation and 9% opposed their parents. By the age 11, over 50% of school children have identified with a party By the age 11, over 50% of school children have identified with a party

Political Socialization Cont’d Education as a Source of Political Socialization Education as a Source of Political Socialization Pledge of Allegiance, mock elections, patriotic education. Pledge of Allegiance, mock elections, patriotic education. Forms the most in Elementary School Forms the most in Elementary School Peers and Peer Group Influence Peers and Peer Group Influence What your friends think. Most significant influence in middle and high school years. What your friends think. Most significant influence in middle and high school years. Media Presentation of Political Issues Media Presentation of Political Issues

Political Socialization (cont.) When events from a time period influence people from that period it is called the generational effect, or a cohort effect. When events from a time period influence people from that period it is called the generational effect, or a cohort effect. EX. Great Depression, JFK assassination, Oil Embargo EX. Great Depression, JFK assassination, Oil Embargo

Mass Media Collection of all methods of communication Collection of all methods of communication The average American adult spends 30 hours a week in front of a TV. The average American adult spends 30 hours a week in front of a TV. Press release, radio, internet, TV, newspaper, magazines, mail, etc Press release, radio, internet, TV, newspaper, magazines, mail, etc

Political Preferences and Voting Behavior Demographic Influences Demographic Influences Education Education Economic Status Economic Status Typically: wealthy want less gov’t involvement, poorer want more gov’t involvement Typically: wealthy want less gov’t involvement, poorer want more gov’t involvement Religious Influence: Denomination Religious Influence: Denomination Catholics and protestant=rep Catholics and protestant=rep Jews=liberal Jews=liberal Religious Influence: Commitment Religious Influence: Commitment The more you actively practice the rigid the voting line The more you actively practice the rigid the voting line Race and Ethnicity Race and Ethnicity Minorities tend to lean liberal Minorities tend to lean liberal Gender Gender Women tend to lean liberal Women tend to lean liberal Geography Geography

Measuring Public Opinion The History of Opinion Polls The History of Opinion Polls 1800s: Straw Polls 1800s: Straw Polls Not scientifically based Not scientifically based George Gallup is considered the father of modern polling (Gallup Poll). He argued that the publics opinion helps “speed up the process of Democracy.” George Gallup is considered the father of modern polling (Gallup Poll). He argued that the publics opinion helps “speed up the process of Democracy.”

Measuring Public Opinion (cont.) Sampling Techniques Sampling Techniques Representative Sampling Representative Sampling The sample group has to be large enough to represent the voting public. The sample group has to be large enough to represent the voting public. The Principle of Randomness The Principle of Randomness The theory that any person has an equal chance of being interviewed. The theory that any person has an equal chance of being interviewed. A truly random poll can never be achieved because there is no list of every person. Often times “random samples” target a certain group of people. A truly random poll can never be achieved because there is no list of every person. Often times “random samples” target a certain group of people.

Tracking Polls Tracking Polls Taken on a daily basis, allows candidates to monitor public opinion on a short term basis. Usually taken of small groups of registered voters Taken on a daily basis, allows candidates to monitor public opinion on a short term basis. Usually taken of small groups of registered voters Exit Polls Exit Polls Taken after voters cast their vote. Every tenth person is asked to allow the media to predict a possible winner. Taken after voters cast their vote. Every tenth person is asked to allow the media to predict a possible winner.

Problems with Polls Sampling Errors A.K.A margin of Error Sampling Errors A.K.A margin of Error The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. The average, acceptable margin of error for a sample group of 1500 is about 3 percent. The average, acceptable margin of error for a sample group of 1500 is about 3 percent.

Problems With Polls (cont.) Poll Questions Poll Questions Answers will depend on the type of question asked. Answers will depend on the type of question asked. Yes and no questions often leave out the ability to express their true opinion Yes and no questions often leave out the ability to express their true opinion Push Polls Push Polls Attempts to spread negative or untruthful information or statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker. Often, results are not even recorded, it just paints a picture of a candidate that is extremely negative. Attempts to spread negative or untruthful information or statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker. Often, results are not even recorded, it just paints a picture of a candidate that is extremely negative.

Technology and Opinion Polls The Advent of Telephone Polling Far easier and less expensive than door-to- door polling, and has become standard. Too many entities are conducting “ polls ” and “ market research. ” Nonresponse Rates Have Skyrocketed Time of day, day of the week, area called…all problems of phone polling