Loss of life caused by the flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina: A preliminary analysis of the relationship between flood characteristics and.

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Presentation transcript:

Loss of life caused by the flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina: A preliminary analysis of the relationship between flood characteristics and mortality S.N. Jonkman B. Maaskant E. Boyd M. Levitan

Background Methods for estimation of loss of life are used to: Assess consequence and risk levels Analyse mitigation strategies A method has been developed for Netherlands, mainly based on Dutch 1953 data Objective: analyse relationship between flood characteristics and mortality for New Orleans Focus on direct mortality in flooded area

Analysis of mortality 1.Analyse flood characteristics 2.Estimate exposed population (incl. evacuation) 3.Analyse relationship between flood characteristics and mortality Mortality (=nr. of fatalities/nr. exposed)

New Orleans: situation

Hurricane Katrina

Levee systeem

Flood simulations 2D Hydrodynamic simulations To give insight in: depth, velocity, rise rate, arrival time Input information: Breach characteristics (location, size, timing) Digital elevation model Hydraulic roughness Results compared with: flood maps, damage patterns, eyewitness accounts

Flood simulation Simulations by Bob Maaskant (TU Delft) and WL|Delft Hydraulics

Flood simulations: results

Flood simulations: results (2)

Flood simulations: results (3)

Flood simulations: results (4)

Affected population and evacuation Flooded area:  450,000 inhabitants Evacuation rate: 80% to 90% ((Wolshon, 2006) based on traffic counts) Shelter in city (Superdome etc.)  10% Estimate: 10% of population was ‘exposed’ to flooding

Data regarding Katrina related fatalities Source: State Louisiana DHH in cooperation with LSU Hurricane Center Total: 1118 fatalities in Louisiana Recovery locations geocoded for 771 victims (69%) Dataset also provides information on: Age (elderly!) Gender (50%-50%) Ethnicity (similar to original population) Type of structure / facility

Recovery locations Source: State of Louisiana DHH & LSU Hurricane Center `

Results by ‘bowl’

Results

Breach zone: Lower 9 th Ward Building damage Flood characteristics Many fatalities (75) near the Lower 9th Ward breaches Characterised by building collapse and hv>5m 2 /s

Concluding remarks Overall event mortality (1%) comparable to historical events 2/3 of the fatalities associated with physical impacts of the flood Mortality rates were highest in areas with large water depths and near breaches Relationship between flood characteristics and mortality was found (but no influence of rise rate) Recommendations Further analysis of mortality and population data is recommended Comparison with other methods (e.g. IPET) Application in consequence and risk assessments