Michael McKenna MWR Strategies April 2008 Climate Change Michael McKenna MWR Strategies April 2008

Methodology MWR Strategies April 2008

Focus Groups Eight groups consisting of 10-12 registered voters in the middle of the political spectrum In 2, majority identified climate change as “immediate threat” In remaining 6, majority identified it as “major problem” Locations Atlanta Tampa Detroit Minneapolis LA Denver Houston Philadelphia MWR Strategies April 2008

Nationwide Survey 1000 registered voters, 3.1% margin of error Conducted March 10 to March 14, 2008 Random digit dialing to home phones Stratified for region, gender MWR Strategies April 2008

The issue context . . . MWR Strategies April 2008

Where do we fit in? Environment is a third tier issue It is tough to identify a candidate who has lost because of environmental attitude/votes Climate change has become most important issue within the set, but even that has diminished somewhat recently Reducing dependence on imported energy much more important. Global warming not identified as most important global issue MWR Strategies April 2008

“What is the most important issue facing the United States right now “What is the most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code) MWR Strategies April 2008

“What is the most/second most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code) MWR Strategies April 2008

What about the environment? 2% identified as most important 2% identified is as 2nd most important MWR Strategies April 2008

“What would you say is the most important environmental issue facing the United States right now? (open code) MWR Strategies April 2008

“What will be the most important environmental issue or challenge facing the US in the long-term? (open code) MWR Strategies April 2008

Wait a minute . . . MWR Strategies April 2008

“Which is the most pressing or important environmental issue facing the United States right now? (closed code) (from February 2007) MWR Strategies April 2008

“What will be the most pressing or important environmental issue facing the United States in the long-term? (closed code) (from February 2007) MWR Strategies April 2008

. . . how does the priorities argument do? MWR Strategies April 2008

“Which of the following is the most pressing or urgent global problem? MWR Strategies April 2008

“How important is affordable energy to our economy? MWR Strategies April 2008

“What is the most important aspect of the energy we use? (open code) MWR Strategies April 2008

“Which is more important to you, addressing global warming or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?” MWR Strategies April 2008

“Which is more important to you, addressing global warming or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?” MWR Strategies April 2008

“Would you support a global warming plan that resulted in increasing our dependence on foreign sources of energy?” MWR Strategies April 2008

“America should put more emphasis on domestic energy sources like coal, even if that means we move more slowly on meeting environmental goals.” MWR Strategies April 2008

Economics Voters have no illusions about who pays for things They have limited appetite for increased costs And very nearly no appetite for job losses females, self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush tend to care more about job loss The tenuous economy overhangs the entire conversation

“If the federal government requires companies to take actions that cost them money, how likely is it that those companies will pass along increased costs to consumers in electric bills, gasoline prices, and home heating bills?” MWR Strategies April 2008

“Is the economy strong enough right now to incur the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?” MWR Strategies April 2008

“Is the economy strong enough right now to incur the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?” MWR Strategies April 2008

*70% of respondents responded $500 or less “How much would you personally be willing to pay each year either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices, or higher heating bills, to address global warming?” Mean = 554 dollars Median = 50 dollars *70% of respondents responded $500 or less *18% responded more than $500 *35% responded zero

“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean) MWR Strategies April 2008

“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean) MWR Strategies April 2008

“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean) MWR Strategies April 2008

“(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be 1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you . . . to support the legislation)?” MWR Strategies April 2008

“(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be $1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you . . . to support the legislation)?” MWR Strategies April 2008

*65% of respondents responded 100,000 or less “How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as much as 80%?” Mean = 426,000 Median = 1,000 *65% of respondents responded 100,000 or less *5% responded more than 1 million *35% responded zero * among those who think the US is doing better, 50% responded zero. MWR Strategies April 2008

“How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as much as 80%?” (mean in thousands) MWR Strategies April 2008

“I am going to read you five statements about the legislation “I am going to read you five statements about the legislation. For each one, I would like you to tell me whether it makes more . . . to support the legislation.”

“What percentage of our energy do you think comes from renewable or alternative energy sources?” Mean = 23.6 Median = 18

*42% didn’t know or refused “Can you tell me the how many billions of dollars the US government is spending each year to address climate change?” Mean = 21.67 Median = 3.0 *42% didn’t know or refused

“Do you think carbon emissions have “Do you think carbon emissions have . . . in Europe/the US in the last 10 years? MWR Strategies April 2008

“Who is doing a better job of addressing global warming? MWR Strategies April 2008

“I am going to read you a list of actions that the US government is currently doing to address climate change. For each one I would like you to tell me whether it is . . . important.” MWR Strategies April 2008

“On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not at all certain and 10 is completely certain, how certain do you think the science of global warming is?” Mean = 5.8 Median = 6.0 MWR Strategies April 2008

“On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not very urgent and 10 is extremely urgent, how urgent is it that we address global warming?” Mean = 6.5 Median = 7.0 * self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush had medians of 10 and 9

“On that same scale, if you knew that efforts by the government to reduce global warming would result in the loss of some jobs nationwide, how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those job losses to be justifiable?” Mean = 7.4 Median = 8.0 * The means among females, self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush in 2004 were above 8.0. MWR Strategies April 2008

“On that same scale, if efforts by the government to reduce global warming resulted in higher prices for things like gasoline, electricity, and natural gas, how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those higher prices to be justifiable?” Mean = 7.6 Median = 8.0 MWR Strategies April 2008

Version A “Which of the following is most likely to lead towards solutions to global warming and other environmental challenges?” MWR Strategies April 2008

Version B “Which of the following is most likely to lead to the technological improvements we need to address global warming?” MWR Strategies April 2008

Version B “Which of the following is most likely to lead to the technological improvements we need to address global warming?” MWR Strategies April 2008

Solutions “And which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution? (from February 2007) MWR Strategies April 2008

Solutions “Which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution? (from January 2006) MWR Strategies April 2008

“The US should show leadership on global warming, even if nations like China and India do not follow our example.” MWR Strategies April 2008

“To help reduce carbon emissions, which of the following would you prefer?” MWR Strategies April 2008