Demographic Trends and Prospects Presented by: Eduard Bos Health, Nutrition, and Population The World Bank John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed.

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Presentation transcript:

Demographic Trends and Prospects Presented by: Eduard Bos Health, Nutrition, and Population The World Bank John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides

Demographic Trends and Prospects 1)Past trends in population size 2)Projections 3) Determinants of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration 4) Impact of AIDS epidemic 5) Changing age structures 6) Population policy options

China 1,2621,50519% India 1,0161,56154% Indonesia % Brazil % Pakistan % Bangladesh % Nigeria % Population size (millions) Increase Country Projections of Population Size Selected Countries: Russia % Japan % Germany %

How Reliable are Demographic Projections Cohort component methodology: trends in vital rates projected separately Baseline data: accurate data determine short- term accuracy Assumptions about the future: past trends; no “unusual” events Longer term: increasing uncertainty Global, regional, country, subnational

The Next Billion

2) Determinants of population change: fertility and mortality

Why Population Growth in LDCs Continues Fertility remains above the replacement level Declining mortality Population momentum due to a young age structure

3) Impact of AIDS epidemic

Global Estimates of HIV Prevalence Number infected with HIV 936 million Percent of adults infected %

Demographic impact of AIDS

How does HIV/AIDS affect demographic trends Mortality of adults (mostly 20-50) increases death rates Mortality of adults reduces number of women of childbearing age: fewer births Mortality of children increases death rates, reduces future size of adult population  Mortality indicators much worse  Dependency ratios not greatly affected

4) Changing age structure Population Council

Age Structures

5) Population policy options

1)Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion u Strengthen family planning programs u Improve fertility regulation technology Causes of Population Growth Policy Options

2) High desired Family size u Emphasize human development 1)Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion u Strengthen family planning programs u Improve fertility regulation technology Causes of Population Growth Policy Options

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Demand for Births u Level of education u Status of women u Infant Mortality

1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion u Strengthen family planning programs u Improve fertility regulation technology Causes of Population Growth Policy Options 2)High desired family size u Emphasize human development 3)Momentum of population growth u Delay childbearing

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