Disclaimer The information in this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in George Wimpey Plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance 2
George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2005 Tuesday 21 February 2006
Welcome and introduction John Robinson Chairman
Agenda Key messagesPeter Johnson 2005 financial reviewAndrew Carr-Locke US business reviewPeter Johnson UK business reviewPete Redfern Group outlookPete Redfern 5
Key messages Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive
2005: US growth strategy paid off, offset by disappointing UK result Weak market exposed challenges of short term landbank as well as weaknesses within our business Bulk of UK business remains sound; those weaknesses have been addressed UK soundly based to rebuild margins in stable and improved market Morrison Homes has outperformed in a strong market Management team is strong; internal succession ensures continuity of strategy 7
2005 financial review Andrew Carr-Locke Group Finance Director
2005 results £m Tax Profit before tax Dividend cover DPS NAV per share EPS % 17.6p16.0p+ 10% 3.7x4.9x- 64.3p78.4p- 18% 389p340p+ 14% 31% - 9 * restated for IFRS and land sales Interest (71.0)(59.9)+ 19% Operating profit % Turnover 3,003.22, % *Change
2005 completions 10,678- 5%£188,600- 2%UK private 1, %£98, %UK affordable 12,100- 1%£178,000- 4%UK total 4, %$312,700+ 8%US total 17,021+ 2%GROUP TOTAL NoChange£ / $Change CompletionsAve selling price 10
Turnover £m Operating profit Operating margin* Change £m Change UK US Other TOTAL 2, % %12.9% % % 18.0% 14.7% 20.0% 0.1-(9.9)- 33% 3, % % Segmental analysis *Exchange rate in 2005 $/£=1.82, 2004 $/£=1.83 *UK operating profits stated after charging £5m of restructuring costs 11
Interest charge 12 £m Loans Pensions Derivatives Other TOTAL % % % % Change
Yr to Dec 2004 Yr to Dec 2005 £m Cash flow summary Operating profit Land spend Land realisations Other working capital movements CASH INFLOW FROM OPERATIONS (935.1)(839.0) (88.3)(49.0) Interest Tax Dividends Other movements REDUCTION / (INCREASE) IN NET DEBT (49.2)(53.6) (91.3)(117.7) (33.7)(53.7) 20.8(38.8) 8.3(1.0) 13 Exchange rate effects (14.5)(24.1)
Balance sheet net assets Dec 2004* Dec 2005 Fixed assets and joint ventures Land Land creditors Other net operating assets Tax and provisions Net pension deficit TOTAL NET ASSETS EMPLOYED ,932.32,153.4 (274.7)(380.5) (114.4)(104.9) (130.3)(129.2) 1,852.32,066.3 £m * restated for IFRS 14
Balance sheet financing 15 Shareholders’ funds £m Net debt £m Capital employed £m Gearing Interest cover - reported Interest cover - underlying ROACE 1,544.41, ,066.31, %39% 6.2x8.3x 8.8x10.4x 22.3%28.9% Dec 2005 Dec 2004 * restated for IFRS
5 year review 16 Group completions PBT £m Net worth £m Dividends per share Gearing 17,02116,654 16,57016,91714, ,544.41, p16.0p 34%39% ,439.11, p 36% 12.25p 45% 9.1p 40% 8.25p 49% IASUK GAAP Profits increased by 141% Dividends annual growth rate 21% Balance sheet strengthened
US business review Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive
2005 financial summary 18 * restated for IFRS and land sales Legal completions Comps excluding Atlanta Ave selling price Turnover Operating profit Operating margin 4,9214, % 4,7974, % $312,700$288,900+ 8% $1,538.8m$1,277.3m+ 20% $308.3m$188.3m+ 64% 20.0%14.7%+ 5.3pp *Change
Five year review Completions Operating margin % Operating profit* $m Turnover* $m ASP $ , %4,422289,000 1, %4,921313, %2,900238, %3,197252, %3,661270,000 CAGR 22.3%46.8%--7.1% 19 * restated for IFRS and land sales
Margin Gross margin up from 25% to 30% average selling prices +8% but big mix changes underlying house price inflation >10% in Florida, Phoenix, North California; <5% in Texas, Denver increase in land costs offset by change in regional mix impact of build cost inflation on margin ~4.5% - 5% Overhead to sales stable at 10% increased bonuses offset by scale efficiencies 20
Some industry comparisons : Company Est PBT margins 2005 asp 2005 increase % US GAAP $000 % Toll Brothers NVR Morrison Standard Pacific DR Horton Hovnanian Pulte Ryland Centex Beazer Estimates from broker reports 21
Successful growth strategy Focus on growth markets Growth through satellites Growth through product development Addressing underperforming businesses Landbank 22
Successful growth strategy Focus on growth markets Morrison markets account for 45% of job growth 49% of population growth 38% of 2005 H2 SF permits Growth through satellites Growth through product development Addressing underperforming businesses Landbank 23
Morrison Homes markets major beneficiaries of underlying trends ,681 38% SF Permits H Rank Florida California Texas Arizona Colorado TOTAL Total US Morrison Markets ,010 45% Job Growth last 12 mths Rank 000s m 2.753m 49% Population Growth Rank
Successful growth strategy Focus on growth markets Growth through satellites 2001new satellites in Jacksonville, Sarasota, Central Valley 2005 these satellites accounted for 20% completions 2005 new satellites in Daytona Beach, Fort Myers and Reno Growth through product development Addressing underperforming businesses Landbank 25
Successful growth strategy Focus on growth markets Growth through satellites Growth through product development townhomes were >12% of Florida completions in 2005 townhome volumes expected to grow 2.5 times in 2006 Addressing underperforming businesses Land bank 26
Successful growth strategy Focus on growth markets Growth through satellites Growth through product development Addressing underperforming businesses Atlanta exited Texas 2005 completions +47% Texas order book at 31 December +55% net reservations weeks % Landbank 27
Successful growth strategy Focus on growth markets Growth through satellites Growth through product development Addressing underperforming businesses Landbank total plots at end ,514 % of plots used during the year 140 % of land for 2006 targeted completions 100 % of land for 2007 targeted completions 90 28
Landbank in place to deliver growth 29
Focus on growth markets balanced landbank to support growth 30 West Southeast Southwest 1,187 2,253 1,481 4,093 12,040 7, compslandcompsland 1,130 2,092 1,200 3,997 10,573 7,009 compsland 832 1,684 1,145 3,125 8,816 5,
Focus on growth markets growth in completions and landbank 31 West Southeast Southwest 5% 8% 23% 2% 14% 5% 2005/4 compslandcompsland 43% 34% 29% 31% 37% 25% compsland 832 1,684 1,145 3,125 8,816 5, /32003
Outlook economy, housing market - macro picture remains healthy US economy remains strong 600,000 jobs created in last three months consumer confidence at highest since June 2002 unemployment rate down to 4.7% 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 6.22% Housing industry projected to remain at high levels NAHB projects SF new home sales down 8.1% to 1.19m that matches 2004 and is 10%> average 1.28m new owner households created to grow home ownership rate from 69% in 2004 to 70% in
Outlook Morrison Homes - too early to call full year outlook Outlets*+10% Order book at 1 Jan 06*+20% in volume +36% in value at margins and prices ahead of 2005 full year Order book at end week 6*+19% in volume +36% in value Sales weeks 1-6-3% on 2005 sales rate0.93 vs 1.05 West down, Southeast flat, Southwest up * excluding Atlanta 33
UK business review Pete Redfern Deputy Group Chief Executive
Two key questions Why have UK margins fallen in 2005? What have we done to address these issues? 35
Two key questions Why have UK margins fallen in 2005? What have we done to address these issues? 36
Causes of margin reduction Impact of tough market and mix on selling prices affordable housing smaller private product – houses and apartments southern market significantly weaker Habitual second half volume weighting reduced business flexibility Impact of rising costs – mostly land, due to short term landbank Underperforming businesses and sites affected overall margin performance 37
Margin movement Mix / volume impact Net operating expenses impact 2005 margin Build cost impact Land cost impact 2004 margin Sales pricing impact 12.9% % (1.8%) (0.3%) (0.4%) (2.6%) 0.0% 38
2005 financial summary * restated for IFRS and land sales 39 Total completions Private completions Affordable completions Private ASP Total turnover £m Gross margin % Operating profit £m Operating margin % 12,100 10,678 12,232 11,274 1, £188,600£193,400 2,157.62, %26.1% %18.0% *
2 key questions Why have UK margins fallen significantly in 2005? What have we done to address these issues? 40
Actions to improve margin performance Put sales on front foot improve quality of sales processes and performance ensure sales are moving on all sites lengthen order book to create urgency for customers Improve H1/H2 volume balance through sales catch up and focus on next six months through build planning Continue to improve land processes, culture and people Drive down build and overhead costs £20m of cost savings achieved (£2m in 2006) further overhead reductions to come through more to go on build costs in
Actions to improve margin performance Addressing underperforming businesses challenging management, changing where necessary new Management Team established - experienced housebuilding team structure simplified, central drive and control, not more overhead Laing business structure rationalised and absorbed all UK businesses run on same model two smallest subscale businesses closed strong underlying Laing businesses and people retained two brands nationally available to allow local differentiation for growth Decision to withdraw from high rise City business strong skills within business retained releases £100m of cash over two years for reinvestment 42
2006 business structure 43 New business structure North8 Midlands8 South9 TOTAL25 + 3 new satellites Completions from 350 – 700 per business Overheads before restructuring costs (£m) Bristol Manchester Liverpool Newcastle Edinburgh Glasgow Birmingham Leeds London Plymouth Aberdeen
2005 market Market has been difficult since mid 2004 total market volumes down 17.2% (source: Land Registry) second hand market very slow price sensitive and incentive led In H1, North was strongest and South weakest H2 started to show slow improvement particularly in the last two months particularly in South Apartment market has been particularly price and product sensitive impact c. 2.5% margin difference to average 44
Ave weekly sales rates GW 2003 – H2 sales create 32% growth in order book Nov/Dec sales remain strong due to focussed pressure
Net prices on reservations GW 2003 – Sales growth driven by performance not just price – cost 1% of net price Building order book will allow reduction in incentives
Product mix Managing our apartment mix 2005 land approvals 30% apartments margin hurdles increased on apartments in 2004 size down 5% and still being reduced preferred range % more efficient in size/plotting PD completions Apartments 2 / 3 bed houses 4 / 5 bed houses % 32% 100% % 32% 37% 100% 47
Cost reduction 2005 cost saving programme sub-contractor savings replans of high cost sites/products More potential for 2006 standard build detail eg floor systems rationalisation of doors/fittings option cost efficiencies Preferred housetype range designed and in place adopted first in new and underperforming businesses cost per square foot 5% below average product 48 rationalisation of brick supply chain rationalisation of site overheads loading scaffolding/joist hangers kerb remedials sales and showhome costs
Landbank North Midlands 16,447 13,878 5,112 4, Owned and controlled plots Strategic acres 18,615 11,882 4,934 5,529 TOTAL 50,98514,16951,11917, Landbank broadly maintained, North land prices still inflating until late 2005 Strategic landbank and process challenged – sifting sand, finding some nuggets South 20,66020,6227,1084,395
Owned land cost and value Opening landbank Acquired net* Completions* Closing landbank (47.3) (44.3) 45.6 Cost Per Plot (£000) *Plot cost high in year, driven by South/North mix ASP £000s Cost per plot £000s 2005 completions Landbank Land value % ASP %26.0% Closing plot cost marginally lower than 2005 completions Landbank average selling price higher than completions due to South mix 50
Example sites acquired in Newton Leys Lawley, Telford Masterton, Dunfermline 695 1,167 1,650 No of plots No of acres 17.3% 19.6% 20.7% Cost per plot as % of ASP
UK objectives Margin improvement objective for H move net prices forward having strengthened sales position continuous cost reduction plan to hold inflation or better show improvements from underperforming businesses Medium term volume growth 2006 volumes will be less H2 weighted – foundation for housebuilder growth culture existing structure has ability for growth -undersize businesses -three new satellites -improvements in land buying structure and people 52
Outlook Market recovery seen in Nov/Dec continues RICS survey shows completions up 15% year on year more confident, committed visitors outlets below last years peak at 292 (2005: 320) sales rate still maintained at 0.96 order book at lower margins, starting to move net prices on new reservations Opportunities in both material supply and subcontract costs, despite energy pressures 53
Group outlook Pete Redfern Deputy Group Chief Executive
Group outlook US economy and housing market projected to remain healthy although too early to call full year outlook strong forward order book sales remaining sound UK market recovery seen in Nov/Dec continues further cost saving opportunities identified and in place strong forward order book starting to reduce use of incentives 55
Forthcoming events AGM statement and trading update20 April Pre-close trading updateW/C 3 July Management dinnerW/C 3 July Interim results1 August Site visitOctober 56
George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2005 APPENDIX
Pensions UK defined benefit scheme closed to new members in 2002 Investment position 68% fixed interest 32% equities Mortality assumptions fully updated following detailed study of recent mortality experience of the Scheme March 2005 Actuarial Valuation gross deficit £148m net £104m IAS 19 valuation 2005 gross £185m(2004 £186m) net £129m(2004 £130m) Deficit funding contributions paid for 2004 and 2005, agreed contributions for 2006 of £15m Total contribution (including deficit funding) £21m (2004 £23m) 57
Undeveloped land disposals 58 Land sales UK US TOTAL Profit (loss) UK US TOTAL (0.1) £m Revenue from land disposals is no longer included in turnover There is no impact on reported operating profits
Group reservations UK private UK affordable 11,318 1,881 10,640 1, US TOTAL GROUP TOTAL 5,211 18,410 UK TOTAL13,19911,918 4,822 16, ReservationsAve sites Per outlet / per week
UK – turnover analysis 2004 YearH2H1 11,2746,6314, ,1811, Private - volume turnover £m Affordable - volume ave price £000s turnover £m Other turnover £m YearH2H1 10,6786,5244, ,0141, ,4221, ,2327,1395, Total - volume ave price £000s turnover £m 2,2781, ,1007,5244, ,1581, ave price £000s
UK - margin analysis 61 * restated for IFRS and land sales Year*H2*H1*YearH2H % 26.2%21.5%20.3%23.4% (75.9)(39.7)(36.2)(86.2)(45.7)(40.5) (119.4)(61.4)(58.0)(115.4)(58.4)(57.0) %19.1%16.5%12.9%13.1%12.6% Gross profit £m Operating profit £m Overheads / JVs £m Operating margin % Gross profit % Direct selling £m Land profits £m
UK - PD product mix 2005 YearH2H1 Apartments 36%37%34% 2 / 3 bed houses 32% 4 / 5 bed houses 32%31%34% YearH2H1 31%29%32% 29%35% 37%42%33% 100 Completions 62
UK – PD activity analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave house size sqft 1,0331,0081, ,015 Ave selling price £ / sqft
UK - PD price mix % £0 – 50k £51 – 100k £101 – 150k £151 – 200k £201 – 250k £251 – 300k £301 – 500k £500k + TOTAL YearH2H1YearH2H % completions by price band £000s
Legals Legals Size sqft ASP £000 North 4,1821, ,8131, Midlands 3,1971, , South 3,6061, , TOTAL 11,2741, , Size sqft ASP £000 City UK - PD geographic mix
UK - landbank by region Owned and controlled plots Strategic acres North Midlands South 16,44718,615 13,87811,882 20,66020,622 5,1124,934 4,6625,529 4,3957,108 TOTAL50,98551,11914,16917,571 66
UK - short term land (private & affordable) YearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period 33,55934,19133,55937,22239,78437,222 Net acquired 15,89510,1705,72514,3197,1817,138 Legal completions (12,232)(7,139)(5,093)(12,100)(7,524)(4,576) End of period 37,222 34,19139,441 39,784 CONTROLLED 13,897 16,71011,544 14,596 TOTAL LANDBANK 51,119 50,90150,985 54,380 Plots OWNED 67
UK - owned land (private & affordable) Plots Plots Cost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank 33, ,496 37, ,698 Additions 15, , Completions (12,232)(44.3)(542) (12,100)(47.3)(572) End of period 37, ,698 39, ,859 Short term Cost per plot £k Value £m Strategic AcresValue £m AcresValue £m End of period 17, ,
Morrison Homes - turnover analysis 2005 YearH2H1 Volume 4,9212,9251,996 ASP $000s Turnover $m 1, * YearH2H1 4,4222,7081, , * restated for land sales
Morrison Homes - margin analysis 2004*2005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross profit $m Gross profit %24.6%24.9%24.0%29.2%30.6%27.1% Selling expenses $m(64.0)(37.3)(26.7)(72.8)(41.2)(31.6) Overhead costs $m(64.5)(35.0)(29.5)(77.0)(40.6)(36.4) Operating profit $m Operating margin %14.7%16.0%12.7%20.0%22.0%16.9% 70 * restated for IFRS and land sales Land profits $m(0.1)(0.2)
Morrison Homes - activity analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave house size sqft 2,3862,3712,4092,2992,2632,355 Ave selling price $ / sqft
Morrison Homes - price mix $0 - <200k $201 – 250k $251 – 300k $301 – 350k $351 – 400k $401 – 450k $451 – 500k $500k TOTAL YearH2H1YearH2H % completions by price band $000s 72
Morrison Homes - regional performance TOTAL 1,2771, Corporate (20.1)-(23.7)- * restated for IFRS and land sales Turnover 2005 $m 2004 $m West Southeast Southwest 2005 $m 2004* $m Operating profitOperating margin 2005 % 2004 % Exclude land sales (13)(24)----
Morrison Homes - completions 2005 YearH2H1 West 1, Southeast 2,2531, Southwest 1, TOTAL 4,9212,9251, YearH2H1* 1, ,0921, , ,4222,7081,714 *restated to reflect new regional profile 74
Morrison Homes - average selling price 2005Change West Southeast Southwest TOTAL $436,000 $302,000 $246,000 $313, % 15.7% 5.6% 8.3% 2004 $398,000 $261,000 $233,000 $289,000 75
Morrison Homes - landbank by region Owned and controlled plots West Southeast Southwest 4,0933,997 12,04010,573 7,3817,009 TOTAL23,51421,579 76
Morrison Homes - short term land 2005 YearH2H1 End of period 2,702 3,058 TOTAL LANDBANK 23,514 22,719 LAND SPEND $m OWNED AND OPTIONS 2004 YearH2H1 Start of period 18,89219,66118,892 Additions 6,8414,0762,765 Legal completions (4,921)(2,925)(1,996) End of period 20,812 19,661 15,30417,45615,304 8,0104,1443,866 (4,422)(2,708)(1,714) 18,892 17,456 2,687 2,606 21,579 20, CONTROLLED 77
Impact of dollar Morrison $ op profit Ave exchange rate Morrison £ turnover Change $188.3m$308.3m+ 63.7% $/£ = 1.83$/£ = 1.82 £698.0m£845.5m+ 21.1% Morrison $ turnover$1,277.3m$1,538.8m+ 20.5% Morrison £ op profit£102.9m£169.4m+ 64.6% 78