Exit Polls Around the World Mitofsky Internatio nal Informs NY May 17, 2006 Warren Mitofsky

2004 U.S. PROJECTIONS Projections for 124 races 51 president 34 senate 11 governor 7 statewide house 20 referenda And for 23 Democratic Primaries and a Caucus

THE DATA Sampled 50 states + DC Interviewed 60 to 100+ voters in 1,469 precincts – over 110,000 interviews Interviewed 5,800 absentee voters in 13 states before election day Collected vote returns from 2,985 sample precincts Received vote by county from the Associated Press

THE ESTIMATES Exit polls – interviews with voters in sample precincts Quick counts – vote returns in sample precincts County returns

All our projections were all correct ! All NEP members’ projections were all correct !

WE DID ONE MORE THING--- We provided analysis of issues and identified the make-up of the constituencies supporting each candidate. We did this for all 124 races and for the nation as a whole.

Edison/Mitofsky Worked for NEP Edison Media Research Mitofsky International National Election Pool ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News

WHY DO NEWS ORGANIZATIONS DO IT? Transfer of power – electing a U.S. President is the biggest story in the free world Legitimize television news – in the early days television was viewed as only entertainment

Recent Exit Polls in Emerging Democracies Moldov Philippines New Delhi Ukraine Taiwan Venezuela Palestine Zimbabwe BelarusGeorgia

Recent Exit Polls in Other Countries FranceAzerbaijan GermanyBelarus Britain Italy Israel

Credibility of a new government depends on the belief in a transparent election Official counts are not always believable Exit polls are the first word on the transfer of power in a democracy Credibility of a new government depends on the belief in a transparent election Official counts are not always believable Exit polls are the first word on the transfer of power in a democracy

NOTABLE PROJECTIONS 1988 Chile, Presidential referendum 2004 Belarus, Presidential referendum 2004 Venezuela, Presidential referendum 2004 Ukraine, Presidential 1 st run-off 2000 U.S., Presidential election

FREE & FAIR ELECTION It does not mean – Error Free It means – Errors are Random

FREE & FAIR ELECTION Assurances may come from …. –Unbiased free press –Unbiased electoral observers –Independent projections

All projections are not equal !

When Exit Polls and Official Result Differ Established Democracies “What went wrong with the exit poll?” New Democracies “Is the official result wrong?”

Rule # 1 The Pollster is Not Partisan (Ignore partisan polls)

Rule # 2 The projection must be reported promptly by unbiased media (Ignore delayed reports and/or biased source)

Rule # 3 Methods used for conducting the exit poll or quick count must be… –Generally accepted as good practice. –Methods must be disclosed

Methods must be disclosed before the election. Otherwise there can be no credibility for the results. Methods must be disclosed before the election. Otherwise there can be no credibility for the results.