Election Day 2008 =62% turnout 2012 = 58% turnout Swing states are always the deciders Ohio has voted for the winner in the last 12years

Most important factors in voter behaviour AA always Democrat (83%) Hispanics are increasingly fought over More women vote Democrat – is this issue driven? 70% of elections between were won by them. They like compromise Turnout is key Party affiliation Independent voters Racegender

More important factors ………. What is missing? Less clear cut. Sparsely populated = Republican and Densely populated = Democrat Elections tend to be won in the suburbs Rich= Republican Less = Democrat Young = Democrat Old =Republican Regular attenders vote Republican ReligionAge GeographyWealth

The 2012 election – Why did Obama win? Incumbency factor 22 out 0f 31 have been won by incumbents sine 1796Early and effective attacks on Romney He ran a better campaign – Get out the vote Romney – the man and his gaffes ‘Romney Shambles’ The Clinton and Bush effectsTHE October Surprise – Hurricane Sandy