The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “At Last!’” With John Thomas from San Francisco, CA September 10,

Drew the Short Straw

Trade Alert Performance Still Another New All Time High! *January Final +3.05%, *July Final +4.18% *February Final +6.41%, *August MTD 5.86% *March Final -2.52% *September +0.60% *April Final +3.32% *May Final +4.61% *June Final +4.24% 2014 YTD %, versus 3% for the Dow, an outperformance of 26% *First 185 weeks of Trading %!

Portfolio Review- Running Out of Positions! current capital at risk Risk On (TBT) short Treasury bond ETF10.00% Risk Off none total net position10.00%

Trailing 12 Month Return +57.6%

44 Months Since Inception-50 BP Short of All Time High %, Averaged annualized +39.8%

Strategy Outlook-Risk is Still On *Global bonds probably peaked last week on ECB move *Cease fire in Ukraine is risk positive, but is this a bluff so Putin can turn off Europe’s natural gas this winter? *Now Alibaba is looming over global capital markets, triggering $20 billion in reallocations *ECB makes its big move, collapsing Euro and yen and sending dollar to yearly high *US dollar stronger than it appears

The Jim Parker View The Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,500 upgrade Technical Set Up of the week Buy *Dollar in any form, yen, Euro *European bonds Sell Short – *Stock Market trying to put in short term high *Every oil rally has failed Avoid – *Gold, precious metals

The Global Economy- The US is Stronger than it looks *August nonfarm payroll a disappointment at 142,000, means interest rates lower for longer, unemployment 6.2% down to 6.1% *US Q2 GDP growth at 4.2% is hotter than hot, may get revised up more! *Europe fears of Japan deflationary repeat as August inflation falls to 0.3%, French GDP market down from 1% to 0.5% *Japan fears of European deflation, Q2 GDP -7.2% annualized off of tax increase, New pension head in Japan to shift greater share of $1.3 trillion in assets out of bonds and into stocks, means more QE sooner *China August services PMI up from 54.2 to 54.4 *US July Factory Orders rise a record 10.5% one huge airliner exports

ISM MfG New 7 Year High Is What the Stock Market is Seeing

Weekly Jobless Claims- The trend is your Friend +4,000 to 302,000, new 7 year lows!

Bonds-US and Europe Simultaneously Top Out *Highs for the year were probably put in for for Europe and the US last week, triggered by ECB QE *One more rally left to test the theory, put in reverse head and shoulders on charts *Fed tapers quantitative easing to zero in next month, but interest rates rises not until late 2015 *New trade of the year is to Switch out of bonds *Huge rally in (JNK) disappears

Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 2.50% failure here is key, proves my top for the year call

30 Year Treasury Yield ($TYX)-Yield 3.23% Inverse Head and Shoulders setting Up?

Junk Bonds (HYG) 5.70% Yield The New Lead Contract-Wow!

2X Short Treasuries (TBT) long 10% position-keeping for a quick turnaround volatility is low

Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) 3.49% Yield

Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 3.30% Yield

Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.88% yield, Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

MLP’s (LINE) 9.40% Yield-Holding Up Against Falling Oil

Stocks- Best August in 14 Years *S&P 500 had gone 14 consecutive days without a 0.50% move, longest boring streak since *Reallocation from bonds and stocks into cash us underway, stocks will lead the rebound *Will see a sector shift on next 4% correction, out of Apple and technology and into banks, or out of Apple into other technology *(SPY) should hit 2,100 by yearend *Use next volatility visit to $17 as cue to buy

S&P 500

Dow Average

NASDAQ (QQQ)- Still an Uptrend

Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)- Weak Euro Helping Stocks

(VIX)- Back to the Bottom

Russell 2000 (IWM)-Wedge Setting Up?

Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM) Watch Out for an Apple Drag!

Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)

Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)

Financial Select SPDR (XLF)

Apple (AAPL) – We got the Run to New Highs The iPhone 6 is Here! Buy the rumor, sell the news!

Google (GOOGL)

Stock of the Week-First Solar (FSLR)

China- The Upside breakout is Here!

Japan (DXJ)- Weak on poor GDP figures

Emerging Markets (EEM)

India (EPI) – Still Grinding Up on EEM Strength

Foreign Currencies- Euro QE is Here at Last! *Draghi move the big move, with interest rates cuts and QE, more to come, billions Euros to start, 5 years behind the US *Medium term target of $127 hit, next comes $125, $120, and eventually $1.00 *Scotland votes for independence 51-49, demolishing the pound *BOJ announces no new monetary actions, but yen falls anyway *Dollar hits new high for the year, sucking in more foreign money into US financial assets

Euro (FXE) -The Freefall is On took profits on the 9/$133-$135 put spread

Long Dollar Index (UUP) – Euro and Yen Collapse Great for Dollar

British Pound (FXB) Demoed by Scottish Poll showing in favor of leaving the UK

Japanese Yen (FXY)- A Breakdown at Last! Launching off a 25 year base

Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)

Australian Dollar (FXA) – Flat lining on Neglect

Chinese Yuan (CYB) - Only the Yuan is holding up against Uncle Buck

Emerging Market Currencies (CEW)

Energy-Collapse! *Collapsing prices are forcing Russia to sell more oil to support weakening economy, accelerating the downturn *Saudi Arabia fighting back to preserve market share, boosting production *Flip from Contango to Backwardation is price supportive *Kurdish direct sales increasing after winning US court cases *Libyan exports resume, potentially adding 1.5 million barrels/day to global supply *Russia funding anti—fracking efforts in Europe to protect huge market there, export earnings *China leases world’s largest tanker to store 3.2 million barrels long term

Oil- Back to Multi Year$77.50-$ Range

United States Oil Fund (USO)

Natural Gas (UNG)-

Copper-It’s All About the Dollar

Freeport McMoRan (FCX)-

Precious Metals-The Anti Dollar Trade *Simultaneous acceleration of quantitative easing in both Japan and Europe is very gold negative, Euro interest rate cut another nail in the gold coffin *Physical gold purchases from China and India falling, even though we are into the Indian wedding season *Collapsing oil, strong dollar together dragging down gold

Gold- Yuk!

Barrack Gold (ABX)-

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX)

Silver (SLV)- Show Me the Rally

Silver Miners (SIL)-

Agriculture * USDA crop progress report is one of the best in history *Perfect weather continues *Too many farmers still waiting for a rally to sell into *Soybean “good/average rating is 64%, now at an amazing 74%, same for wheat and corn *Hopes for an early frost? *Stand aside

(CORN)-New Lows! Blame This on the Dollar Too!

(SOYB)-Free Fall!

DB Commodities Index ETF (DBC)- Double Yuk!

Real Estate-An Autumn Revival? * Mortgage Interest rates at 18 month lows have failed to spur the market *End of taper could bring the end of the 30 year fixed rate loan. *High end house flipping is soaring *Entry level buyer MIA and may be gone for a decade (student loans, bad associations, other priorities) *

May S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index +9.3% down to +8.1% YOY

(ITB)- US Home Construction Dow Sub index positive data is feeding into stocks

Trade Sheet- keep positions small, better not to trade at all than pursue marginal trades *Stocks- buy the dips, but keep size small, with tech leading *Bonds- sell rallies across all fixed income, the top is in *Commodities-stand aside *Currencies- sell every Euro rally forever, and the yen too *Precious Metals –stand aside, buy the next bottom *Volatility-stand aside, could be a long summer *The Ags –buy new lows *Real estate- stand aside

To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please Go to Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 Wednesday, September 24, 2014, Live from San Francisco, California Good Luck and Good Trading !