The Cost of Policy Inaction The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target Dr. Leon C. Braat CBD COP 9 - Side Event - UNEP-FI and FFI - Bonn, May 29, 2008

The Cost of Policy Inaction L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) with J. Bakkes, K. Bolt, I. Braeuer, B. ten Brink, A. Chiabai, H. Ding, H. Gerdes, M. Jeuken, M. Kettunen, U. Kirchholtes, C. Klok, A. Markandya, P. Nunes, M. van Oorschot, N. Peralta- Bezerra, M. Rayment, C. Travisi, M. Walpole. Wageningen / Brussels, May 2008 Based on the Report to the European Commission, May 29, 2008

COPI CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

1.The OECD Baseline scenario and international policies 9.1 billion inhabitants by 2050 GDP global average: 2.8% per year

2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity The total biodiversity loss : All biodiversity of 1,300 million ha converted to asphalt. (about 1.5 times the United States) 73% 62%

2000 The Global Loss of Biodiversity

2030 The Global Loss of Biodiversity

2050 The Global Loss of Biodiversity

2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity: deforestation in Brasil GLOBIO MODEL OUTPUT OVERLAY ON GOOGLE EARTH

We are fishing down the foodweb – D. Pauly (UBC, Canada) 2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity CBD indicator: Marine Trophic Index

2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity THE DEMISE OF GLOBAL FISHERIES Source: Sea Around Us project % 20 %

Source: National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, UC Santa Barbara Anthropogenic Impacts on Marine Ecosystems 2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity East- carribean North Sea East Chinese Sea

CBD global 2010 target: significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss The Targets will not be met, not by 2010, 2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity European Union 2010 target: halting the loss of biodiversity And in a no-new policy Scenario: not by 2050

2.The Global Loss of Biodiversity PARKS AND PROTECTED AREAS IN THE WORLD

3.Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity

3.Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity Pristine forest Degraded land Extensive use Plantation Original species Fossil fuel subsidized Extensive use Subsistence agriculture

Ecosystem service level Population: 9100 million GDP 2.8%/year Population: 6092 million GDP: 41.4$ trillion (PPP) (10^12) GDP/capita: 680$ (PPP) Services that would have been there, had biodiversity loss been halted GDP, with feedback to economy from biodiversity losses integrated - illustrative GDP adjusted for impact of biodiversity loss - illustrative Source: Patrick ten Brink (IEEP), Leon Braat (Alterra), Mark van Ooorshot (MNP), Matt Rayment (GHK) 4.Changes in Economic value due to loss of Biodiversity Remaining ecosystem services

THE GLOBAL MONETARY COST OF POLICY INACTION The loss grows with each year of biodiversity and ecosystem loss. Land based ecosystems only 4.Changes in Economic value due to loss of Biodiversity Relative to 2000 Area Billion EUR Equivalent to % of GDP in 2050 Natural areas % Forest managed % Extensive Agriculture % Intensive Agriculture % Woody biofuels % Cultivated grazing % World Total %