2 ENERGY SECURITY, GLOBAL GROWTH AND RISK MANAGEMENT Dr. Andrey P. Vavilov Member of the Council of Federation of the Russian Federation IFS Academic.

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2 ENERGY SECURITY, GLOBAL GROWTH AND RISK MANAGEMENT Dr. Andrey P. Vavilov Member of the Council of Federation of the Russian Federation IFS Academic Director CRIFES Scientific Advisor March 2009

3 Global energy security risks UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth

4 Global energy security risks UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth

5 Global peak oil estimates

6 Shut down oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea region Companies and alliancesProjectsResults AgipKurdashi, Araz-Daniz loss of expected 100 million tons of oil Total, OEIC, Wintershall Talysh-Daniz, Lankaran- Daniz loss of expected 50 million tons of oil ExxonMobilno data loss of expected 40 million tons of oil Chevron, Total, SOCAROguz‘dry well’ Agip, LukoilKarabakhno data ВРDan Ulduzu, Ashrafino data

7 Oil reserves in unstable economies

8 Global energy security risks UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth

9 Rebased price fluctuations (2008 data)

10 Nominal oil price fluctuations 1990, The first Iraq campaign, 41$/bbl 1981, Iran-Iraq conflict, 31,7$/bbl 2008, Record high, 147,5$/bbl

11 UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

12 UNCERTAINTY risks Reserve evaluation Oil price volatility Investment risks Capital efficiency and global growth Global energy security risks

13 Energy consumption vs. GDP in developed countries and China

14 Savings and debt fluctuations in the US

15 Decline in oil supply Lower rate of return on capital Growth of consumption Low mobility of capital Saving rates in Asia-Pacific countries Oil dependency Mechanism of oil dependency in the global growth model

16 Is this a cooperative behavior? COOPERATION PRODUCER Sales channels diversification Control over reserves Resource nationalism

17 Is this a cooperative behavior? CONSUMER Diversification of imports Decline in imports Financial protectionism COOPERATION PRODUCER Sales channels diversification Control over reserves Resource nationalism

18 Conditions for global growth GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH COOPERATION Consumer Producer

19 Advantages of risk exchange RUSSIA Resource potential management Foreign non-energy assets management 1. Participation in the global development 2. Risk diversification 3. Preconditions for technological advance 4. Lower volatility of stock exchange indexes Access to technology

20 Stock exchange index volatility

21 C enter for R esearch on I nternational F inancial and E nergy S ecurity

22 Dr. Andrey P. Vavilov Member of the Council of Federation of the Russian Federation IFS Academic Director CRIFES Scientific Advisor CRIFES IFSwww.ifs.ru/en/

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