Energi i et nytt århundre – sett i et nordisk og globalt perspektiv Gunnar Berge Oljedirektør

Outline  Global energy picture  The demand and supply challenge  World economic development scenario  Keys to cleaner energy - gas, hydrogen  Norwegian energy production and consumption  Oil and gas Resource potential Production forecast Importance for Europe of Norwegian gas  Electricity supply system  Summary

The global energy situation

World Energy Demand per Region The demand for energy in the world has experienced a sudden increase in the developing regions, particularly in Asia, and predictions are that in 2030, it will increase by 66% compared to demand in The Asian region (excluding Japan) will account for almost 40% of that growth. Energy need is closely connected to the development of the countries economies. By region: Kilde: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy – Government of Japan (2002) (

Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA

Source: Goldman Sachs Source. Goldman Sachs

Gas as a key to cleaner energy

Source: McKinsey & Company

Carbon sequestration and hydrogen

Norway as energy producer and consumer

Role of petroleum sector in Norway % 25% 19% Source: SSB

Production and net export of liquids 2003

Norwegian energy production and consumption 2003 Source: MPE

Norway – the oil impact 1.Norge 2.Australia 3.Canada 4.Sverige 5.Belgia 6.USA 7.Island 8.Nederland 9.Japan 10.Finland 11.Sveits 12.Luxembourg 13.Frankrike 14.Storbritannia 15.Danmark BNP pr innbyggerHuman Development Index 1000 kr Kilde: Finansdepartementet

Distribution of total Norwegian petroleum resources as of  Total recoverable resources: 12,9 bill Sm 3  70% still to be produced  > ¼ still to be discovered  > 60 discoveries  130 improved recovery projects on fields is under assessment Remaining recoverable resources (mean): 8,9 bill Sm 3 o.e. (Range: 6,5 – 12,2 mill Sm 3 )

Norwegian continental shelf: Distribution of undiscovered resources  Total undiscovered resources:  3,4 bill Sm 3  Liquids: 1,5 bill Sm 3 (44 %)  Gas: 1,9 bill Sm 3 (56 %) Barents Sea Norwegian Sea North Sea 2/3 gas 2/5 gas

Potential of the Arctic areas Arctic North Africa Middle East Caspian Sea USGS study: 25% of the world’s yet to find resources are located in the Arctic areas Kilde: USGS, Statoil Rest of the world

Total Norwegian petroleum production : Stable total production  Decrease in oil production  Increase in gas production 2005 – 2009: 9 billion Sm³ o.e.  105 million more than

The long term scenario Within 20 years more than half of the production will come from fields not yet found

Norwegian gas exports to Europe

The Norwegian Electricity Supply System 1.Hydropower supplemented by wind and imports 2.License given to three gas fired thermal plants N V E

The Balance between production and consume:  120 TWh hydropower  Narrow margins  Vulnerable to shortage of precipitation  Norway imports elec- tricity in years with normal precipitation Energy intensive industry General consumption Losses Electric boilers and pumped storage N V E

Summary  Oil, gas and coal will remain as primary sources of energy for many decades.  Increased importance of gas as a cleaner energy source, but competiton from coal as CO 2 technology is developed?  Decarbonization of fossil fuels to electricity and hydrogen is more and more seen as a vital route towards a fully sustainable energy supply, largely dependent on fossil fuels.  China and India will emerge as leading economies and concequently have a substantial impact on the energy demand situation  Norway will play a key role in the energy supply of Europe as a large producer of oil and gas for many years to come.  Norwegian electric power balance is vulnerable to shortage of precipitation