Biological Attack Model (BAM) Status Update February 22 Richard Bornhorst Robert Grillo Deepak Janardhanan Shubh Krishna Kathryn Poole

2 Agenda Project Concept Project Plan Project Risk Assessment Biological Agent Overview BAM Schematic Model Overview

3 Project Concept Develop a Biological Attack Model (BAM) to assist the Emergency Management Agency (EMA) and emergency responders with crisis management in the event of a biological attack –Minimize the exposure of biological agents to responders and the general public Target aspects of the biological attack model that will benefit stakeholders the most Provide models, plans, or procedures to address identified gaps in the current model of a biological attack

4 Project Plan Slip

5 Project Risk Assessment A biological attack is a very complex event A project risk assessment was conducted to determine which tasks are feasible within the time constraints of one semester –Original Project would require 1240 man-hours to complete –Team members can contribute 10 man-hours per week –1240 > 750 (10 times 15 weeks) Adjusted project plan reduces the man-hours required to roughly 775 man-hours –Eliminated dispersion modeling (use existing models) –Reduced disease behavior modeling (mod an existing model) –Primarily focus on containment modeling

6 Biological Agent Overview 22 biological agents that could be considered potential bio- terror weapons were initially considered for BAM –Based on lists from agencies such as the CDC and WHO Bio-terror agents can be classified by transmission method –Person to person –Airborne –Foodborne The bulk of development for BAM will be in building and refining the disease spread and containment models –BAM was scaled back to focus exclusively on one transmission type Selected person to person transmission New, reduced, list of pathogens considered for BAM: –Smallpox –Ebola –Viral Encephalitis

7 Biological Agent Overview All three agents spread through human body fluids and can potentially be made into an aerosol weapon –Smallpox Sores, blisters, and boils appear, killing skin cells and spreading to internal organs Also spread through blankets and clothing contact Can be vaccinated after exposure, but before symptoms appear (no other treatment available) –Ebola Skin rash, damage to liver, kidneys, and other organs leading to bleeding from all openings No current vaccine or treatment –Viral Encephalitis Causes abnormal behavior, paralysis, convulsions, and death from nerve/brain damage Also spread through animal fluids No vaccine for most forms, but with proper care, many people can recover

8 BAM Schematic Disease Data Small Pox Ebola Viral E. Spread Model Decision Scenario Related Data Decisions Initial Conditions & Intermediate Conditions Disease Spread Model SIR Link Markov Chain Model Link Custom Spread Model Census Data Situation Analysis & Reporting

9 Epidemic Model Overview BAM will be built upon the SIR model (Susceptible – Infected – Recovered) –SIR is widely used to model the spread of epidemics and to study immunization strategies within a population –The standard SIR model is not adequate for BAM Populations Tracked S t = the number of susceptible individuals at time t I t = the number of infected individuals at time t R t = the number of recovered individuals at time t Input Variables B = transmission rate K = recovery rate SIR Model

10 Epidemic Model Overview Biological Attack Model (BAM) will expand upon the basic SIR model to incorporate additional parameters relevant to response planning –Quarantine Percentage of infected population quarantined per day Percentage of contacts of infected population quarantined per day –Treatment (vaccination, antibiotics, etc.) Percentage of infected population treated per day Percentage of susceptible population treated per day –Deaths related to the bio-attack Mortality rate of the disease Mortality rate of treatment (vaccination, antibiotics, etc.) Once complete, BAM will be used to perform parametric studies and sensitivity analyses that will be detailed in the final briefing and report

11 Questions ?