DELTASIM A Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region Wade L. White, AICP- Citilabs Danny Lamb- Florida DOT

Agenda Why develop a land use model?Why develop a land use model? Major elements of the modelMajor elements of the model Data requirementsData requirements The DELTASIM processThe DELTASIM process Integration with the TBRPM transport modelIntegration with the TBRPM transport model Next StepsNext Steps

Why Develop DELTASIM Land use and transportation systems continue to develop at a rapid pace in the Tampa Bay regionLand use and transportation systems continue to develop at a rapid pace in the Tampa Bay region Transport investments clearly have an impact on land use development potential, timelines and economic competitiveness of the region and vice versaTransport investments clearly have an impact on land use development potential, timelines and economic competitiveness of the region and vice versa Quality land use data are finally becoming available at a regional level for all countiesQuality land use data are finally becoming available at a regional level for all counties

Major Components of DELTASIM Enumeration- Disaggregate Data SynthesizerEnumeration- Disaggregate Data Synthesizer –Population –Employer –Group Quarter –Hotel/Motel –School Accessibility CalculatorAccessibility Calculator Parcel Allocation (1.2 million)Parcel Allocation (1.2 million) Construction ModuleConstruction Module ZDATA BuilderZDATA Builder

Data Requirements Population/HHPopulation/HH –ZDATA1 –PUMS (Permanent & GQ) –School Inventory –Hotel/Motel Inventory EmploymentEmployment –ZDATA2 –InfoUSA datasets Transport LOS (skims) for at least 2 yearsTransport LOS (skims) for at least 2 years –Highway (FF & CG) –Transit (walk, peak) –Composite Impedance

Data Requirements Parcel DataParcel Data –TAZ –FLU CODE –ELU CODE –ACRES –APPRAISED VALUE –EXISTING DWELLING UNITS –DRI APPROVED FLAG –DRI ACTIVE FLAG –URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY FLAG Parcel Attributes (cont) –SIGNIFICANT < DRI FLAG –TCEA FLAG –WATERFRONT FLAG –X_COORD –Y_COORD –SCHOOL “OK” FLAG –EXISTING SCHOOL FLAG –EXISTING HOTEL/MOTEL FLAG

The DELTASIM Process Operates on 1 year incrementsOperates on 1 year increments Full cohort-component simulation with life eventsFull cohort-component simulation with life events –Births –Deaths –Household formation/dissolution –Children moving out/forming households –Net in-migration

The DELTASIM Process Business EvolutionBusiness Evolution –Expansions and/or contractions of employment –Closing of businesses –New business formation –In-migration of businesses –Relocations

The DELTASIM Process Monte Carlo style simulation operates on individual agent choicesMonte Carlo style simulation operates on individual agent choices –School location choice (school need) –Residential location choice (HH) –Group Quarter location choice –Hotel-Motel location choice –Employer location choice Transition matrices & probabilities for agent changesTransition matrices & probabilities for agent changes

The DELTASIM Process Construction of New Units Forecast through Builder’s Utilities for Residential & CommercialConstruction of New Units Forecast through Builder’s Utilities for Residential & Commercial Evaluates available properties forEvaluates available properties for –Redevelopment –New Development –Subdivision All parcel and builder attributes available including accessibilityAll parcel and builder attributes available including accessibility Available (undeveloped) real estate assessed based on historic profile of developer choicesAvailable (undeveloped) real estate assessed based on historic profile of developer choices Considers need and historic vacancy ratesConsiders need and historic vacancy rates Considers development policiesConsiders development policies AccessibilityAccessibility

Integrated with the TBRPM TodayToday –Uses LOS indicators that can be interactive as DELTASIM is completely coded in Cube Voyager –A manual process to put LOS indicators (SKIMS) into DELTASIM. Once the process is fully validated, it may optionally operate as part of the TBRPM job stream. –“Rolls up” results to ZDATA format TomorrowTomorrow –Turn off “roll up” process to provides individual households/persons/employers/employees for eventual activity-based modeling –Add auto ownership, worker, income evolution models for households –Add property pricing (land rent) modules

Next Steps Re-estimate parameters, coefficientsRe-estimate parameters, coefficients CalibrateCalibrate Validation & sensitivity testingValidation & sensitivity testing Beta testing with some regionally significant projectsBeta testing with some regionally significant projects Finalize documentation & develop user guideFinalize documentation & develop user guide “Roll it out” for local review and national critique“Roll it out” for local review and national critique

Let’s Take a Look at Her!