New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Waterwise – setting up for regional application Paul van Walsum

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Overview  Modelling  Input data  Setting up and using the model

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Multi-level modelling economy ecology hydrology complex reduction simple verification Integrated model

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Mathematical form of integrated model  x 1, x 2,... vector of decision variables x x i = 0 : no, you do not do it x i = 1 : yes, you do it  g 1 x 1 + g 2 x objective function gx --> max  a 11 x 1 + a 12 x <b 1 constraints Ax < b  a 21 x 1 + a 22 x <b 2

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Non-linear effects: piece-wise linear functions Area of potatoes (ha) Yield

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Modelling methods in optimization models  Embedding of submodel  “Repro”-method

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Embedding method  Includes model in the matrix  Disadvantage: high computational load  Advantage: More general, less customizing needed

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty “Repro”-method  Reproduces input-output responses  Advantage: small computational load  Disadvantage: requires calibration

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Regional influencing through GW & SW  pressure wave  droplet movement, including substances

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Waterwise meta-modelling components  Local perturbations (by land and water management actions) –experiments with simulation model (“repro-method”)  Regional transmissions (groundwater and surface water) –embedded for surface water quantity –repro for groundwater “wave” effects –embedded for water quality (GW & SW)  Effects (on economy, ecology, water) –repro

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Option table (example)

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: perturbations  Obtain through sensitivity analyses with simulation model  Example: peak flow contribution

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: perturbations (continued) Discharge (m 3 s -1 ) Water level (m)

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: transmissions  Cascade of linear reservoirs: –Storage ≤ capacity –Flow = linear function of storage + over flow  Unit hydrograph method

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water quantity: effects  Direct –Costs of undershooting desired minimum flows –Costs of flood damage  Indirect: –Yield of water management options that require water

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Groundwater quantity: overview

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Derivation of influence matrix  Use analytical formula (steady-state, multi-layer) Top view Model cell (i) j  a (i)/  p (j) i j IM =

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Calibration of influence matrix  H nature = f · [IM]  H agriculture

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Verification of influence matrix (1) without nonlinearity correction (2) using piece-wise function

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Groundwater quantity: effects  Derive tabular functions from sensitivity analyses

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Water quality  Fixed water flows (long-term averages)  Complete mixing of substances  Decay coefficients C N,g,i,2 C N,s,i layer 1 layer 2 cell i layer..

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Water quality:  Quantity changes can have significant impacts on water quality transmission  In that case run model repeatedly, known as SLP, “Successive Linear Programming”

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Input data

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Excursion through data: surface water quantity  Perturbations –measures –upstream flow effects  Surface water model –schematization of network -unit hydrograph  Effects - target flows - costs of deviations

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Perturbations  Measures = File wwsets.xls  Flow effects = file wsref.xls and wswm.xls

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Surface water transmission  Files for schematization - kinr.csv and koutr.csv -kinj.csv and koutj.csv -typej.csv -binmlj.csv  Unit hydrograph

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Economic effects of flows  Target flows: - minimum flows - maximum flows  Costs –undershooting minimum targets –overshooting maximum targets

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Highlight 1: master control file  Wwcontrol.xls

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Highlight 2: files for restricting decision space

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Overview of setting up and using model

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Procedure for setting up Waterwise  1. Start with the objectives!  2. Transmission links  3. Identify measures: submeasures Combinations  4. Make planning units  …