Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia Niels Brouwers, T. Lyons, G. Hardy

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Presentation transcript:

Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia Niels Brouwers, T. Lyons, G. Hardy

Climate change in Australia Climate change in southwest Western Australia (SWWA) Forest declines in SWWA Eucalyptus wandoo decline study Overview

Temperature change

Rainfall change

Southwest of Western Australia

Temperature changes in SWWA

Rainfall changes in SWWA

Forest declines in SWWA

Eucalyptus gomphocephala (tuart) decline

Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo) decline

Eucalyptus wandoo decline study Objectives Hypotheses Methods Results Discussion

Objective To investigate the relationship between changes in wandoo health and climate related variables

Hypotheses Declines in health are related to: – Decreasing rainfall – Decreasing soil moisture availability – Increasing temperatures

Methods Surveys across the geographical distribution of wandoo were carried out in 2002 and 2008 Crown health was estimated at 123 sites Bureau of Meteorology data and modelled soil moisture 1 were used in the analyses 1 Raupach MR, PR Briggs, V Haverd, EA King, M Paget, CM Trudinger (2008a), Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Component: Final Report for Phase 3..

Results & Discussion Declines in health are related to: – Decreasing rainfall Indirectly – Decreasing soil moisture availability Indirectly – Increasing temperatures Yes

Adjusted R-squared: 0.138, F-statistic: on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 1.384e-05

Adjusted R-squared: , F-statistic: 2.52 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 0.115

Adjusted R-squared: , F-statistic: on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 4.947e-05

Adjusted R-squared: , F-statistic: on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 5.488e-06

Adjusted R-squared: , F-statistic: on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Conclusion All together this study indicates that the negative trend in wandoo health is (at least partially) driven by the changes in climate that the southwest of Western Australia has been experiencing over the last years.

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