Five notable characteristics of contemporary world: Multiple stressesMultiple stresses Macro-perturbations of natural systemsMacro-perturbations of natural systems Impending energy transitionImpending energy transition Rising connectivity and complexityRising connectivity and complexity Power shiftPower shift

CONVERGENT STRESSES

OVERLOADStress_________ Coping capacity

CONVERGENCE and SYNERGY Stresses Overload X X X X

x Population growth Environmental damage Energy scarcity Climate change Economic instability and inequality x x x TECTONIC STRESSES

Society nonlinear Nature nonlinear Co-evolution of Society and Nature Nonlinearity: Absence of simple proportionality between cause and effect

We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly of MACHINES to seeing it as composed mainly of COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Whereas MACHINES can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts) exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behaviorexhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behavior show proportionality of cause and effect, andshow proportionality of cause and effect, and can be managed because their behavior predictable...can be managed because their behavior predictable...

COMPLEX SYTEMS are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties)are more than the sum of their parts (they have emergent properties) can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums)can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have multiple equilibriums) show disproportionality of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), andshow disproportionality of cause and effect (their behavior is often nonlinear, because of feedbacks and synergies), and cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.cannot be easily managed because their behavior is often unpredictable.

We’re moving from a world of RISK to a world of UNCERTAINTY (unknown unknowns)

So, we must move from “management” to Complex Adaptation

CLIMATE Positive feedbacks appear to be developing enormous force Changes in the Arctic appear to be occurring far faster than expected

“Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states.... Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures.” Hansen et al, Hansen et al, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007).

Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009):

Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.” Science (9 January 2009):

More rapid warming at poles One reason: Ice-albedo feedback Atmospheric warming Lower reflectivity of ocean surface Melting of ice Increased ocean absorption of sun’s energy radiative positive feedback, fast

mK 2

“ “[The] climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise.” Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” PNAS (February ).

VULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM China requires about 450 million tons of grain each year World grain trade is about 200 million tons An intervention by China on world grain markets for only 10 percent of its needs would absorb 25 percent of grain on world markets

WEAKENING OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON

IPCC 2007

Source: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431, (A) Forcings used to drive climate simulations. (B) Simulated and observed surface temperature change.

ENERGY We are probably near peak global output of conventional oil Energy costs will continue to rise relative to other costs in coming years

Producing energy costs energy This principle is best understood through the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI)

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed %

BRITTLENESS

Increased Risk of Cascading Failure As a result of tight coupling of nodes

ANOTHER RESPONSE: Increase system resilience RESILIENT people, institutions and societies... have the capability to withstand shock without catastrophic failure

In a complex, tightly connected world exhibiting increasingly frequent and severe system shock... the balance of economic and social investment should shift away from efficiency towards resilience.

POWER SHIFT Individuals and small groups are developing immense capacity to kill and destroy

In this new world, what should we do?

Efficiency and conservation Renewables (GSHPs) Coal with CCS and nuclear Unconventional technologies (UCG, enhanced geothermal, stratospheric windmills) Atmospheric carbon capture Geoengineering Shifting away from conventionally defined “growth” Coping with Carbon Strategies from conventional to radical (assuming a significant carbon price)

GROWTH = SOLVENCY GROWTH = FREEDOM GROWTH = PEACE

Increase system resilience: RESILIENT people, institutions and societies... have the capability to withstand shock without catastrophic failure

Connectivity and Resilience Connectivity Resilience

FIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTS to achieve the Prospective Mind Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEXSystems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEX Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEMSelf: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM SOLVER SOLVER Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL andValues: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL and EXISTENTIAL EXISTENTIAL Knowledge: From DISCIPLINARY toKnowledge: From DISCIPLINARY to INTEGRATED INTEGRATED Community: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC andCommunity: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC and CULTURAL to GLOBAL CULTURAL to GLOBAL