A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Update on the Kentucky Economy Dr. James R. Ramsey April 26, 2012 1.

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Presentation transcript:

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Update on the Kentucky Economy Dr. James R. Ramsey April 26,

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Honored to serve as a Trustee of the Churchill Tax-Free Fund of Kentucky since its inception in

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® In 2010 we were coming out of a recesssion, so we thought 2011 would be better Yet… 3

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® 2011 (Did Not Go According to Plan) 4 “Black Swans” of 2011 –Earthquakes/floods –Fukushima Daiichi Plant –European implosion –US downgrade –Gadhafi, Mubarak & Berlusconi gone So… Economy did not grow as expected

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® We Know That Nationally Times Have Been Unprecedented 5 Very slow recovery %1.7%

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® In Kentucky, things were not gangbusters, but was better in 2011 than

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Kentucky Non-Agriculture Employment February 2012 (employment in thousands) 7 Notes – 1 – Most people employed since December – 2011 added 20,000 jobs 3 – 2012 off to great start (17,000) 4 – Still 51,000 fewer people working today 51,000 job loss

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Kentucky Manufacturing Employment February 2012 (employment in thousands) 8 Economy Productivity gains Offshore

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Manufacturing Employment Declines %11.8% % of Manufacturing Jobs in Kentucky

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Kentucky Employment February 2012 (employment in thousands) 10 Manufacturing Education & Health Services

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Recessionary impact not as bad in Kentucky as some other states We hit bottom and are coming back (albeit slowly) Have regained a little over half of the jobs lost during recession –Where will future jobs come from? Healthcare Logistics Advanced manufacturing Business Services Energy Impact on state budget – state services –Improving revenue growth- modest –But structural imbalance: spending growth > revenue growth Observation’s on Kentucky’s Economy April

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Rather Than Investing In Higher Education 12 Revenue growth FY – 1.1% Expenditures – the bad news —Some History —Structural Imbalance still exists FY Medicaid32.1% Health Insurance Schools33.1% State Government14.6% KTRS40.9% KERS75.0% Debt Service14.5% Corrections13.0% Student Financial Aid14.6% “Higher Ed”-11.0% %

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Nice (not great) recovery continues in Kentucky We will continue to add jobs, but … probably late 2013 before we return to job level of late 2007, still… Jobs of the future different than jobs of the past Continue to face difficult public policy choices that impact our long term future Forecasting / Guessing The Future 13

A QUILA G ROUP OF F UNDS ® Since forecasting is a tough business. I am going to keep my day job at least one more year. Reminder 14