Climate Change October 29, 2007 By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law)

The Greenhouse Effect

CO 2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher Than Pre-industrialized Levels CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 372ppm in 2002 Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years

The Carbon Cycle What is a Carbon Sink?

Green House Gases (GHGs) Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Sulphur hexafluoride Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) Perflurocarbons Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO 2 Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and cow burps to transportation and industry

Average Global Temperature Has Increased by Approximately Since the Late 19th Century

Temperature Patterns in Canada will Change Substantially by 2050 What are GCM’s?

Number of days above 30 0 C Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are Expected to Become More Frequent … and warmer weather means the possible arrival of exotic diseases

Much of Canada’s Coastline is Sensitive to Sea-level Rise … and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty

The General Effects Higher temperatures will effect eco- systems Flooding of coastal areas Storms more severe and frequent Floods and Droughts

Floods Lightning damage Ecological disaster Wind damage Structural damage Loss of life Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types of Disasters Fires

The Risk of Forest Fires Will Increase

Coastal Erosion Means Buildings, Roads and Railways Will Have to be Moved

…and Finally There are Small Risks of Impacts of Catastrophic Proportions

Primary Sources of GHGs Burning fossil fuels Industry Transportation Refrigeration systems Deforestation Agriculture and livestock Volcanoes The problem is not just about increasing sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’

Not Just Warming Some places will experience cooling Longer Growing Season Animals winter outside Changes in water distribution – flooding and droughts Melting glaciers and rising sea level Spread of Tropical Diseases Storms will be more frequent and more violent

Impacts of Climate Change Impacts are felt on many different scales Local – urban heat Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes National – Becomes a warmer country Global – Environmental refugees

Impacts in Other Countries Have Implications for Canada Environmental refugees 3 billion more in water stressed regions 200 million more displaced by sea level rise 80 million more malnourished Offshore disasters Financial assistance Peace making/keeping International conflict over dwindling natural resources Darfur (Sudan)

State of Play of Climate Change Science is clear – serious problem that needs to be dealt with immediately Must be dealt with at global level Emission reductions can take place anywhere in world Global Convention 1992 Kyoto Protocol 1997 Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003

Kyoto Target -6%: 571 Mt Projected 2010 Business as Usual Emissions: 809 Mt 1990 Emissions: 607 Mt Business as Usual “Kyoto Gap”: 270 Mt Million tonnes (Mt) CO 2 equivalent 2001 Emissions: 720 Mt Canada’s “Kyoto Gap” Climate Change Plan

… and Canada is Furthest From its Target Per cent difference between 2002 emissions and Kyoto targets *These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002

So What is Needed? New sources of energy New technologies New ways of doing business Responsible extraction and use of resources New social/community values Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions Incentives, rewards, recognition Leadership

What Has Happened Since Kyoto? Main elements of program in place but very slow implementation Conservative government backed out but now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto commitments 30% increase in CO 2 emissions

Commissioner on Environment and Sustainable Development “Achieving success on a problem as pervasive as climate change demands that all levels of government, industry and business groups, science, academia, and civil society organizations collaborate.” “…developing and deploying new technology will play a key role in building a healthier and more sustainable future. Canadians will have the opportunity to contribute and compete at home and globally.” Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to Parliament

Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct 2006) New baseline of 2003 Intensity targets up to 2020 Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030 National target 45-65% reduction by 2050 Kyoto not mentioned Canada subject to Kyoto penalties Good enough?

Takeaways Climate change is real and already happening “greatest challenge to humanity this century” Global approach essential but Canada not pulling its weight Technology is seen as being integral to combat climate change Full long-term consequences unknown

The End