Kazakhstan at times of market turmoil Kazakhstan’s Banking market from the viewpoint of ATF Bank Almaty, September 2008 Alexander Picker, Chief Executive Officer JSC “ATF Bank”

2 AGENDA  Macroeconomic analysis – yesterday’s drivers of growth are today’s problems  Competitive environment – a mature, if not saturated market  ATF Bank

3 ■Largest sectors contributed to GDP growth■GDP has remained diversified  Transport and comm.  Trade  Other manufacturing  Mineral resources  Finance and real estate  2006    2004  22   Other  Construction  % of nominal GDP 16 99   25  10   15  12  2006  Finance and real estate  Manufacturing  Trade  Transport and comm  Construction  Other  % of growth contribution ■Largest sector of economy – finance and real estate – accounts 20% of GDP ■Finance and manufacturing (including mineral resources) made major contribution to GDP growth ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVEN BY RESOURCES SECTOR, STRONG CONSTRUCTION AND FINANCIAL INDUSTRIES SO FAR – MOTORS FOR FUTURE GROWTH MOST LIKELY RESOURCES, INFRASTRUCTURAL PROJECTS, FOOD AND SOME TRADE Source: Kazakhstan Agency on Statistics; Aton research report, EIU ■Kazakhstan % world mineral resources ■Loans, Investment and GDP by sectors

4 RAPID EXPANSION OF FINANCE AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES WAS FUELLED BY MASSIVE EXTERNAL BANK BORROWING Kazakhstan banks borrowed massively from abroad...to finance the construction industry As a result, both exploded in the last two years 6.1    3Q 2007  External borrowing by banks, $bln 3.5    2Q 2007  +72%  Loans to construction  industry of top 5 banks, $bln  1Q’061Q’06  2Q’062Q’06  3Q’063Q’06  4Q’064Q’06  1Q’071Q’07  2Q’072Q’07  Construction  Financial services  GDP  % real growth, y-o-y Source: Aton research report Overheating

5 STRONG SLOWDOWN IN 2008 / RECOVERY IN 2009 ? Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan, Statistical Agency, UniCredit New Europe Research Network f2009f2010f Nominal GDP, bln KZT5870,17590,610139,512726,015253,017832,320692,8 Real GDP, yoy % change9,69,710,68,55,08,08,5 - Personal consumption, yoy % change14,110,912,713,76,08,09,0 - Investment, yoy % change22,528,129,718,04,012,015,0 - Government Consumption, yoy % change10,610,87,36,08,09,010,0 - Exports of goods and services10,91,16,55,55,07,0 - Imports of goods and services14,812,512,114,412,014,016,0 Inflation (CPI) yoy, eop6,77,58,418,89,57,06,9 average6,97,68,610,814,28,37,0 Avg. Wage monthly, lc yoy % change21,619,720,626,015,819,213,3 Exchange rate /€, eop177,1158,5167,1175,4173,6166,1158,6 average169,0165,4158,3167,7175,2168,3161,7 Exchange rate /USD, eop M KazPrime, eop 5,5012,358,007,00 Current Account/GDP (%)0,8-1,8-2,2-7,0-4,0-5,0-5,5 FDI/GDP (%) 9,63,57,65,44,65,25,5 Budget Balance/GDP (%)2,55,87,54,32,0 3,0 ■Macroeconomic scenario

6 AGENDA  Macroeconomic analysis – yesterday’s drivers of growth are today’s problems  Competitive environment – a mature, if not saturated market  ATF Bank

7 Assets BCC %2.6% %5.6% %1.7% %3.9% %2.5% %2.8% %3.6% %-4.2% %3.0% %-1.5% %-3.2% %1.0% ATF ALB Halyk KKB BTA KKB Halyk ALB ATF BCC Market share Growth Loans Provisions Growth BTA- Bank Turan Alem KKB – Kazkommerstbank ALB – Alliance BankBCC – Bank Centr Credit Source: Banks financial statements (local standard) KZT bn BANKING SECTOR ANALYSIS - TOP-6 BANKS CONTROL 84% OF ASSETS

8 AssetsDeposits BorrowingsLoans to customer, net Source: FMSA (local standard) BANKING SECTOR ANALYSIS

9 THE MAJOR PLAYERS 1. As of 31 March 2008 Source: USB, RenCap, Banks financial statements RankBank Loans/ Depo Assets (KZT bln) Market share (%)OwnershipStrategy Controlled by senior management Minority stake held by EBRD Free float Very strong in corporate banking Moving to SME and middle-to-upper end retail banking Controlled by local individuals Minority stakes owned by East Capital, EBRD, FMO, and IFC Focus on corporate clients Medium-term goal to bring share of retail business to 50% Majority stake held by local individuals Free float Successor to the Soviet Savings bank Focus on retail and SME lending Largely deposit-funded % of voting shares owned by SAFC company Free float Successor to the Soviet Savings bank Focus on retail and SME lending Largely deposit-funded owned by Bank AustriaMostly focused on corporate clients Recently started to actively expanding into SME and middle-to-upper end retail banking Extensive branch network development underway

10 THE POSITIONING OF THE MAJOR PLAYERS Data as of 3Q07 Source: Banks Financial Statements and ATF estimations * ATF data consider SME assets as part of Retail Market shares per volume in % Movement since EOY 2005 Apart from Alliance all banks are heavily positioned in the Corporate Segment. From 2005 to 2007 Alliance had a very aggressive growth in Assets and also increased its Retail portfolio. ATF will increase its Retail Business, but without any substantial changes in the positioning ATF 2007ATF 2007ATF 2007ATF ,2% KKB 31,8% BTA29,6% Halyk 11,9 ALB 11,6% ATF 2010ATF 2010ATF 2010ATF 2010 Loans / Deposits % of Retail Loans % of Corporate Loans

11 SUMMARY:  Banking Sector seems to have successfully managed the liquidity Crisis  This has impacted the real sector and now returns as a Bad Loan Problem  NPL’s increased between 36%-106% ( average 86%) and LLP by % ( average 36%)  Reported 6m Profits of Bank’s down between 30-50% BANKING SECTOR - SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK OUTLOOK:  Repayments on international debt in 2009 estimated at USD 2bn  Bad Loan Problem is continuing  Major changes in ownership: foreign shareholders but also domestic oligarchs taking the chance  Slow growth of sector and significant redistribution of market shares

12 AGENDA  Macroeconomic analysis – yesterday’s drivers of growth are today’s problems  Competitive environment – a mature, if not saturated market  ATF Bank – mixed but promising outlook

13 ATF WILL INCREASE THE BRANCH NETWORK FROM CURRENTLY 140 TO 210 BY 2010, COVERING ALL THE MAIN AREAS IN KAZAKHSTAN new ATF outlets Existing ATF outlets XX Major oil fieldsShare of GDPShare of population Gross Regional product per capita ($K)

14 Breakdown of Loan Portfolio by sectors as at 31 December 2006 Breakdown of Loan Portfolio by sectors as at 31 December 2007 Breakdown of Loan Portfolio by sectors

15 ATF – MAIN SERVICES AND CONTACTS Multi Business Bank  Corporate banking  Loans in USD, KZT and EUR  Structured finance  Trade finance, Transactional banking  International desk  Retail & SME banking  Account Services  Cards  SME services  Private banking  Treasury Product range  Contact:  Alexander Picker, CEO,  Can Tekin Yildirimer, Head of International Desk dzhan-

Thank you for your attention Almaty, September 2008 Alexander Picker, Chief Executive Officer JSC “ATF Bank”