Topic 1.5 Numerical Model Guidance IWTC-V (Cairns, Australia, 2002) Shuyi S. Chen 1 and Naomi Surgi 2 1 University of Miami/RSMAS (USA) 2 NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

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Presentation transcript:

Topic 1.5 Numerical Model Guidance IWTC-V (Cairns, Australia, 2002) Shuyi S. Chen 1 and Naomi Surgi 2 1 University of Miami/RSMAS (USA) 2 NOAA/NCEP/EMC (USA) Working Group: S. Braun, I. Ginis, C.-S. Liu, K.Walsh

Model physics Air-sea and air-land coupling Vortex initialization (inner-core data assimilations) Environmental effects Model configuration Operational Modeling Efforts

High-resolution atmospheric modeling (impact on intensity and quantitative precipitation forecasting) Environmental effects on tropical cyclones Moist convective processes Atmospheric boundary layer Air-sea interface (atmosphere-wave-ocean coupling) Research Modeling Efforts

Structure and Intensity Changes (e.g., eyewall replacement cycle) Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Special Focus

Uncoupled

Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Sensitivity to Model Resolution

15 km 1.67 km

5 km

Sensitivity to Physical Parameterizations

B Braun and Tao (2000)

Hurricane Bonnie

(Simple Ice) (GSFC)

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