Slide 1 Sakari Uppala and Dick Dee European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF reanalysis: present and future

Slide 2 CONTENTS Background ERA-15  ERA-40  ERA-Interim Product quality Reanalysis plans at ECMWF

Slide 3 ECMWF reanalysis projects ERA – 1993 ERA – 2002 ERA-Interim1989  … ECDAS

Slide 4 Operational forecast performance Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential ANC reaching 60% Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential ANC reaching 60% Tropics 850 hPa wind vector ABC reaching 70% Monthly time series Moving average ERA-15ERA-40 ERA-Interim

Slide 5 ECMWF reanalyses ERA ERA Improved data assimilation system -Assimilating model T159L60 -3D-Var FGAT -Analysis of O 3 More extensive use satellite radiances ERA-15 experience  ERA-40 blacklist More comprehensive use of conventional observations Use of Meteosat reprocessed winds, CSR data passive Improved SST & ICE dataset Ocean wave height analysis

Slide 6 VTPR 1973 TOMS/ SBUV 1979 TOVS: HIRS/ MSU/ SSU Cloud Motion Winds 1987 SSM/I 1991 ERS ERS ATOVS:AMSU-A METEOSAT Reprocessed Cloud Motion Winds CONVENTIONAL SURFACE AND UPPERAIR OBSERVATIONS NCAR/ NCEP, ECMWF, JMA, US Navy, Twerle, GATE, FGGE, TOGA, TAO, COADS, … AIRCRAFT DATA Observing Systems in ERA-40

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Slide 8 Trend and variability in two-metre temperature CRUTEM2v (Jones and Moberg, 2003) ERA-40 Linear trend ( ): CRUTEM2v0.31 O C/decade ERA O C/decade NCEP0.19 O C/decade

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Slide 10 Satellite radar altimeter (Davis et al. Science 2005 Vol 308 No. 5730) Surface elevation change rate (cm per year): 1992  2003 Precipitation change (cm of snow per year): ERA-40 ( )+ ECMWF OP ( )

Slide 11 The Great Flood of 1953 The greatest surge on record for the North Sea as a whole occurred on 31 January and 1 February In the Netherlands 1,800 people drowned and in eastern England 307 people died.

Slide 12 February UTC The 500 hPa “Carpet” donated to ECMWF by the Netherlands

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Slide 14 Analysis Sunday 1 February UTC 500 hPa geopotential

Slide 15 Forecast +7D Analysis 1 Feb. 1953T+168 hours

Slide 16 Wave Analysis 1 Feb. 1953T+36 hour Wave forecast

Slide 17 Serves as an intermediate reanalysis before the next extended reanalysis Assimilation has reached September 2004 and will reach real time in the end of products publicly available Input data based mainly on ERA-40 and ECMWF operational observations with a few reprocessed datasets ERA ERA-Interim 1989  to continue as CDAS 

Slide 18 Data-assimilation system T159L60  T255L60 / 12 hour 4D-Var New humidity analysis and improved model physics Satellite level-1c radiances Better RTTOV and improved use of radiances, especially IR and AMSU Assimilation of rain affected radiances through 1D-Var Variational bias correction Improved use of radiosondes Bias correction and homogenization based on ERA-40 Correction of SHIP/ SYNOP surface pressure biases Use of reprocessed - Meteosat winds - GPS-RO data CHAMP / UCAR 2001 , GRACE and COSMIC - GOME O3 profiles 1995  New set of Altimeter wave height data 1991  ERA ERA-Interim 1989  to continue as CDAS 

Slide 19 Daily mean total column water vapour

Slide 20 Daily mean total column water vapour , ERA-Interim-ERA-40

Slide 21 Daily mean total column water vapour , ERA-Interim-SSM/I

Slide 22 Global Total Column Water Vapour

Slide 23 Mean daily precipitation, , ERA-Interim

Slide 24 Mean daily precipitation, ERA-Interim-ERA-40

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Slide 26 Tropical Ocean areas

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Slide 29 Forecast performance, ERA-40, ERA-Interim and Operations

Slide 30 Research & Development as a collaborative effort Start of production in  2015 and continue as CDAS Important components – Recovery, organization and homogenization of observations – Improved SST & ICE dataset – Variational analysis technique aimed for reanalysis – Comprehensive adaptive bias handling – Handling of model biases – Coupled atmospheric-ocean reanalysis? ERA-Interim ERA-75?

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Slide 33 4D-Var CONTROL All observations 3D-Var “Surface pressure observations only” 4D-Var “Surface pressure observations only” 15 February UTC 500 hPa analysis