After 20 Years – and 10 Years More Development of Global Aquaculture Seen from a Danish Perspective By Karl Iver Dahl-Madsen Vicepresident of the Danish Academy of Future Research To FAME, June-05

Anybody Remember? l From February 1986 l What did we (I) say at that time? l What really happened? l And what about the next 10 years? Development Program for Danish Aquaculture

What did FAO forecast In 1984 FAO said 26 mio. tons/år in year 2000 FAO

Trout in Freshwater High Growth: Median Growth:

Quote on Freshwater Farming l The basis for high growth is a dramatic improvement of the water treatment technology, which may hard to do, as well technically as economically.

Salt Water Farming Median Growth: (7.000 on land) Low Growth: 4000; High Growth:

Quote on Cage Culture l For economic viability for a family farm a tons/year capacity is needed! l Today more than >1000 tons/year l A loss of 12 tons N/100 tons fish produced l Now it is <4 tons N

Eel production Median Growth: High Growth: 6.000; Low Growth: 0

Quote on Eels l It is hardly likely that the market will limit production growth! l Oops, the Chinese started exporting cheap eels to Europe

Other Options

Quote on Seaweed l In Denmark there is an interest for culturing seaweed with the aim of harvesting nutrients back to land l Today: Catchcultures

And Prices….. Sure… All food prices are steadily decreasing

Today’s Situation l Proactive Business Community l National Aquaculture Committees l Attitudes have been changed l What lies ahead?

The Global Framework l Growth to 400 mio. tons/yr –UN’s median population forecast: 10 billion people –7 times richer in 100 years –And 40 kg per cap./yr l Fishery will decline to about 10 mio.tons/år

Fish per Capita

The Future of Fisheries l WFD: High / Good Ecological Quality criteria can not be met l As it removes a high percentage of the fish existing production from the Sea l Can this continue?

Demand for Fish Not IMPACT, but KIBCB: Karl Iver’s Best Crystal Ball

Danish Scenarios l Morten Korch society l Business as usual l Growth Unlimited

Morten Korch Soceity l New government with a very green environmental minister l Allies itself with anti industrial food production NGO’s l Aquaculture will slowly and painfully disappear

Business as Usual l Stubborn fighting withdrawal from “green” NGO’s and politicised authorities l Cautious fish farmers: “We must not offend anyone” l Slow production increase l Old and tired producers retire? l All is in the balance

Growth Unlimited l The positive political climate continues l Finance is attracted l Young, smart and energetic people wants to work in aquaculture l Full speed ahead Norway

Environmental Efficiency Why agriculture and not aquaculture: Equality before the law?

Production Type & Environment

Seafarms: What did we miss? Half a Great Belt Bridge: 2 Billion Euro

Offshore Farming in the North Sea? l 1 Million tons fish/yr: 200 km 2 l Plants / mussels for food and nutrient recycling: 2000 km 2

Catchcultures: Mussels and Seaweed

Freshwater: How it was in the past? l Very slow and stubbornly restrictive permit procedures l Unreasonable demands for documentation l WFD and the habitat directive l Lack of proportionality

What Have to be Done l Allow more production in robust streams l Not all streams can be in a “pristine natural condition”

A Lot Have Been Missed One big modern hospital?

New Species? l Sea Farm Committee: –Turbot, Sole –Not Cod! l Vegetarian species: Mullet l Perch/Pikeperch l Exotic Fish: Barramundi, Tilapia l GMO?

The Virtual Fish Farm l A 3D model of a fish farm l Including fish behaviour l Sensors all over: in the nets and in the fish too

Offshore Fish Farms?

And the Oceans? l Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion l Plenty of space, food and nutrients

Will There be Scarcity of Fish? l Fish Culture without water: Recirculation l Animal Culture without animals: an infinitely long fishfillet cell culture l The technical options are present l We will never have fish scarcity l But will Denmark be a supplier??

Discussion